| 2:00 | : Hey everyone, let’s get chatting |
| 2:01 | : Last week someone asked for your thoughts on the Juan Soto trade and you responded with regards to the Soto to the Yankees trade. I initially thought that the question was referring to the Soto to the Padres trade so I will ask – what are your thoughts today on the Soto to Padres trade? |
| 2:01 | : Oh, maybe that makes more sense. I thought that it was a smart trade by the Padres and a fair price to pay for Soto, but included in my calculation was that they might get a slight heads up on an extension, and I was probably too low on CJ Abrams in retrospect |
| 2:02 | : I didn’t think they ripped the Nats off or anything, this isn’t Mookie Betts for three bags of baseballs, but it’s pretty clear that you have to pay a premium to get guys who concentrate WAR like Soto |
| 2:02 | : I had him top 10 in trade value that season and the Padres paid like he was top 10 in trade value |
| 2:03 | : Are you sticking with your prediction of the last day the Guardians being in first in the AL on June 3rd now that Kwan is likely on the IL? Or does the presumptive addition of Manzardo mitigate Kwan’s absence? |
| 2:03 | : Yeah, I’m a Manzardo believer so I’ll stick with it |
| 2:03 | : Projections still think I’m pretty good, but I haven’t been playing well for a while. What do you expect of me going forward, stats-wise? |
| 2:03 | : I’m out, to be honest |
| 2:04 | : I’ve watched a good number of Jays games this year and I think that something is wrong. Maybe it’s injury, who knows |
| 2:04 | : But my expectations are that Springer is kind of a platoon bat and no more until I see more evidence to the contrary |
| 2:04 | : The result from a replay challenge is one of three things: overturned (the call on the field was wrong), confirmed (we can confirm that the umpires made the right call), or the call stands (replay can neither confirm nor deny). Would it make things interesting at all were there to be a rule change such that if you challenge a call and the result is “call stands” (rather than confirmed), you don’t lose your challenge? |
| 2:04 | : I mean…. I don’t think we need more interest in challenges |
| 2:05 | : I think they should be there to overturn obviously wrong calls, and I think the system does a good job of that |
| 2:05 | : I like that they’ll initiate replays without a challenge remaining if it’s late and important, too |
| 2:05 | : Honestly i think MLB does challenges better than the NBA (idiotic, extensive, frequently on judgment calls) and the NFL (I’m so tired of hearing what is and isn’t a catch) |
| 2:06 | : Some of that is because baseball is just more amenable to challenges, though |
| 2:06 | : Cardinals…..bad. |
| 2:06 | : My goodness, the series against the White Sox was bad |
| 2:06 | : having the B team in the booth really made it worse too |
| 2:06 | : (I watched a LOT of baseball this weekend b/c my wife was out of town and our dog has separation anxiety so I was home most of the time) |
| 2:06 | : Who woukd you rather have Rafeala or Rojas of Phillies? |
| 2:06 | : Rafaela for me |
| 2:06 | : Christian Scott the Mets best starter already? He’s the only starter that throws strikes consistently, has 70 command and his fastball and sweeper look great. I like Severino but I think Scott is likely better. |
| 2:07 | : we’re excluding Senga, I assume |
| 2:07 | : I guess yes? I’m pretty hyped at the very least |
| 2:07 | : Do you think the Brewers can win a World Series in the next ten years? |
| 2:07 | : Yeah, for sure |
| 2:08 | : I continue to htink they’re an excellently run team, and I think that even when they do things like trade Corbin Burnes (obviously, I don’t like trading great players when you’re competing), it’s for good reason and their plan on the return makes sense |
| 2:08 | : If I were just a homer Cards fan, it would be very frustrating that Milwaukee is run so well |
| 2:08 | : but instead I just love seeing all baseball teams do smart stuff, and the Brewers are incredibly fun too |
| 2:08 | : I won’t put out any top chef spoilers here but the last episode was at Miller Park |
| 2:09 | : Can you explain what a negative FIP means? I read somewhere that Mason Miller had that this year |
| 2:09 | : So, FIP is an ERA estimator that works pretty well in the aggregate |
| 2:09 | : strikeouts are correlated with lower ERA’s, but it’s kind of non-linear |
| 2:09 | : like if you struck out 95% of opponents, going to 100% of opponents wouldn’t really help you |
| 2:10 | : but FIP is just linear, so if you have enough strikeouts per innings, you can have a negative FIP. all it really means is that Miller is striking out so many opposing hitters, and conceding so few walks and homers, that he breaks the relationship a little bit |
| 2:10 | : Who do you think will be the better emergency fill-in first baseman, Garrett Cooper or Dom Smith? |
| 2:10 | : Wow now this is a fun time to remember some guys |
| 2:11 | : I’m not going to lie to you, I didn’t realize Dom Smith was still kicking around after last year with the Nats |
| 2:12 | : I think I’d prefer Cooper, but I’d prefer neither really |
| 2:12 | : How conceivable is a trade that sends a back-end major league starter in exchange for an elite bullpen arm? For example – the Orioles dealing one of Kremer, Irvin or Wells for a lockdown 8th or 9th inning arm? |
| 2:12 | : Oh yeah, I could totally see this |
| 2:12 | : depending on what you mean by lockdown |
| 2:13 | : Kremer could probably go to a rebuilding team, he’s not hitting free agency forever. I’m not sure if he’d fetch, say, Mason Miller, though |
| 2:13 | : In fact I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t |
| 2:13 | : but if you’re talking about swapping with the Braves for a good reliever, maybe? I could see that |
| 2:14 | : Just a fun observation of why K% is so much better than K/9: Patrick Sandoval – 10.69 K/9, 25.7 K% Shota Imanaga – 9.09 K/9, 26.5 K% (Sandoval’s WHIP is over double Imanaga’s) |
| 2:14 | : Yeah, what a great example of this |
| 2:14 | : Patty Sands is having a rough one so far |
| 2:14 | : no clue if that is actually his nickname |
| 2:14 | : .396 BABIP and a 57.5% LOBster |
| 2:14 | : Are we worried about Julio? |
| 2:14 | : I can’t speak for you |
| 2:15 | : I definitely am not |
| 2:15 | : For your article about the decline in starting pitcher innings/pitches, I wondered if you considered how the addition of the DH in the NL might affect the data since you were comparing before and after the change. If you look at just AL data, is there more of a decrease in innings/pitches? How much? |
| 2:15 | : I thought about considering but I decided it wasn’t really necessary. I don’t care how baseball incentivizes pitchers to stay in the game longer if it does it |
| 2:16 | : also there would be some weird effects in there, like the AL was a higher offense league so pitchers generally didn’t last as long |
| 2:16 | : kind of a tricky thing to balance |
| 2:17 | : In any case, it’s certainly a change, but I would say that it’s not a change that is impactful enough/easy enough to measure that I felt like chasing it down |
| 2:17 | : Which players have the highest Fans Watch this Game for this Player Above Average (FWGPAA)? Jared Jones and Elly? |
| 2:17 | : I don’t actually think Jared Jones does, for whatever reason |
| 2:17 | : Elly is off the charts, Ohtani isn’t far behind |
| 2:17 | : I was chatting with an acquaintance who is a baseball fan and knows I work for FanGraphs, but doesn’t read my stuff |
| 2:17 | : last week, I think |
| 2:18 | : and the first thing he wanted to tell me is that he got tickets to see Elly play here next weekend |
| 2:18 | : I have Judge and Soto in that tier but I’m not sure everyone does |
| 2:18 | : I think a lot of people with mlb.tv are flipping to A’s games if they take the lead into the ninth because it’s fun to follow phenom relievers |
| 2:18 | : MARY. KATE. OLSEN. |
| 2:19 | : I saw a reference to Home Run Baker recently, who went into the Hall of Fame with every inning of his career at third base. Of course, the famous modern comparable example is Jeter, but Jeter played 73 games at DH (plus he’s the exception that proves the rule, since the Yankees certainly should have moved him off short). If DH counts as a position, is it simply impossible to have a star player (other than a pitcher) with only one position in the modern game? It’s amazing how rare it is even ignoring DH. Iván Rodríguez, who seemed like the likeliest bet of recent HOFers, played 8 games at first and 2 innings at second. Yadier Molina played 48 at first (which I have no memory of). I can’t decide whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. |
| 2:19 | : Oh man, I do remember Yadi at first and it was so strange |
| 2:19 | : But he was a really good hitter for a while there |
| 2:19 | : I think it’s a neutral thing |
| 2:20 | : It’s neat that Home Run Baker did it, but it doesn’t make me appreciate modern players more or less |
| 2:20 | : also, Home Run is a sweet nickname |
| 2:20 | : Home Run Judge would both be a great nickname and a great segment on MLB Network |
| 2:20 | : The Cardinals…I was there yesterday and have never heard boos like I heard after the last out. Was like, instead of seat cushions, boos were raining down from the upper deck. 86-112 since Helsley came in Top 9 against Philly. Can they go shopping at the Vibes Store for something new because things have been off for a long, long time |
| 2:21 | : I really do think they need a vibes adjustment |
| 2:21 | : the vibes are very bad |
| 2:21 | : Why do you think Peter Bendix (the Marlins GM) gave up on the season so early? I mean I know we were doing bad but like? |
| 2:21 | : Because their three best pitchers are injured and they started 9-25 |
| 2:22 | : why are the giants so bad |
| 2:22 | : I feel like they set their team up for a delightful dip into free agency over the past two years |
| 2:22 | : get Judge or Ohtani, keep the farm system around them to develop depth, etc. |
| 2:22 | : Then they whiffed across the board and signed everyone else they could, but those guys have mostly been pretty bad |
| 2:23 | : Chapman isn’t hitting, Snell was bad and is hurt, Conforto hasn’t hit aside from a two-week stretch, Jung Hoo Lee might end up great but he has been getting the bat knocked out of his hands so far |
| 2:23 | : like…. when you earmark a ton of money to add star power to your team and it adds 0-ish WAR, it’s gonna be bad |
| 2:23 | : Would Kyle Stowers for Mason Miller make sense? |
| 2:25 | : I’m not sufficiently plugged into O’s prospectdom to have a strong take on how Stowers’s stock has changed this year with a fair start in Triple-A. If I were Oakland, I’d want more, htough. I think Miller was a better prospect, he’s turned out better so far, and you can imagine trying him as a starter in 2025 which gives him some upside juice |
| 2:25 | : How many of these trades do you think the Marlins need to make to be viable in 2026? |
| 2:25 | : 2026 is too soon given the state of their farm system and the fact that they won’t spend |
| 2:25 | : like, that’s so sad |
| 2:25 | : but it’s true |
| 2:25 | : Cole Irvin is absolutely rolling. Do you think it’s legit? |
| 2:26 | : I think it depends on what you mean by legit |
| 2:26 | : I’ve written a lot about Cole Irvin, believe it or not, though mostly in the ‘why it makes sense for Baltimore to acquire guys like Irvin’ sense than about him specifically |
| 2:26 | : Guys of his general quality make little leaps forward all the time |
| 2:26 | : I think he could be an above average starter, yes |
| 2:27 | : My sense is that the nature of FG is shifting to include more NotGraph-ian content (I’m here for it, fwiw). I’m curious if it’s harder to write on analytical topics now that the teams are more advanced than the publicly available data allows ‘us’ to be? Is the shift conscious? |
| 2:27 | : I can only give you my take on this, I don’t speak for the whole site or anything |
| 2:28 | : I got into analytical baseball writing because I like all three of baseball, analysis, and writing |
| 2:28 | : Doing pure count up the wins or analyze this new thing articles doesn’t really scratch the writing itch as much as I’d like |
| 2:28 | : and some of my favorite baseball writing isn’t ‘look at this stat’ |
| 2:28 | : some of it is, too, to be clear! |
| 2:29 | : But I’ve always wanted to write goofy stuff as well as serious analysis |
| 2:29 | : When I submitted a portfolio to FG, it had some stats articles, and then one about John Gant not getting a hit or walk in his first 26 PA’s |
| 2:30 | : and giffing how silly he looked while doing it |
| 2:30 | : here, this one: |
| 2:30 | : Like, I’ve always wanted to do NotGraphs-y stuff, and yeah, teams are pretty advanced but that doesn’t mean I can’t paint a good story for you folks with numbers. I just also enjoy writing without numbers |
| 2:30 | : So in Dan’s article about the O’s having too many good young players for their lineup spots, there was a chart showing WAR accrual by players under 27. St. Louis was bottom 5 and negative, which really bummed me out because the two big vets have been bad…anyway thanks to Willson Contreras for hitting. |
| 2:30 | : Victor Scott has a lot to do with that, ugh |
| 2:31 | : Speaking of replay, can we just get rid of the rule that says catchers can’t block the plate if it is just never going to be enforced? |
| 2:31 | : I’m assuming this is about the Mets game |
| 2:31 | : I thought it was the right call |
| 2:31 | : he wasn’t blocking the plate, however the rule is exactly written |
| 2:31 | : The expected Alonso huge decline here? The exit velo and hard hit rates are putrid. |
| 2:31 | : I did not expect the declin to happen this wya |
| 2:32 | : but man, what a bad beat |
| 2:32 | : I really thought that the Cards’ Operation: BULK INNINGS offseason was going to result in me watching a lot of 7-5 or 8-6 Cardinal victories but ummmm….yeah |
| 2:32 | : well you got one side of the line right |
| 2:32 | : Are you concerned that the overall batting average has slipped below .240? |
| 2:32 | : Yeah. Hits are fun |
| 2:32 | : More hits please |
| 2:32 | : Speaking of players only playing one position for their career, Brandon Crawford has 1 inning as a pitcher and other than that has only played SS lol |
| 2:32 | : I was at that game! |
| 2:32 | : It was amazing |
| 2:33 | : Literally we were walking out and the usher told us we had to come back to watch |
| 2:33 | : they were up 12 or something, I wanted to beat the rush to the muni, but it was worth it |
| 2:33 | : Fun note on Home Run Baker – during his career, he hit more Triples than Home Runs. |
| 2:33 | : What’s your confidence in two very slow starting OFs hitting better….soon….Casty and Nootbar? Thanks Ben |
| 2:33 | : I’m done on Castellanos |
| 2:33 | : like, the last time he was good was 2021 |
| 2:33 | : that’s just over |
| 2:34 | : Nootbaar gets a lot more rope b/c the last time he was good was last year |
| 2:34 | : I’m worried, though |
| 2:34 | : Pitchers have just started flooding the zone, and he hasn’t made the adjustment to increase his aggression |
| 2:34 | : he’s just in 1-2 counts every AB it seems like after three takes |
| 2:35 | : and he’s not a high enough contact guy to make that work |
| 2:35 | : like, he has power. but he needs to punish teams for not respecting it or he might as well not |
| 2:35 | : Isn’t firing the manager the ultimate vibes adjustment… |
| 2:35 | : It is, but you can always go partway |
| 2:35 | : Doing something to shake people up has value, I think, even if the EV is around 0 |
| 2:35 | : b/c like, if things continue the way they are, it’s a bad outcome |
| 2:36 | : introduce some variance into your life |
| 2:36 | : I think the Giants kept trying to add an elite/elite FA while being too reliant on adding an elite/elite FA. Other situations seemed better/likelier for those players. |
| 2:36 | : Yeah I pretty much agree |
| 2:36 | : Shota Imanaga has more wins (5) than walks (4). That’s not gonna hold of course, but how good is this guy? |
| 2:36 | : He’s great |
| 2:36 | : It’s going to be wild trying to sort out the NL RoY race this year |
| 2:37 | : Imanaga, Jared Jones, Yamamoto, and that’s just the pitchers |
| 2:37 | : Will Pete Alonso beat Kyle Schwarber’s contract (4 years, $79 million)? |
| 2:37 | : I think he will |
| 2:37 | : He’ll get a bit of a star boost |
| 2:37 | : How about the Mets trade the O’s Díaz for one of their stud prospects? A .500 team (I’m being optimistic) doesn’t need such a terrific closer. |
| 2:38 | : I don’t think either side would want to do this deal, to be honest |
| 2:39 | : the contract is weird for the O’s given that they haven’t started spending money to lock up their own guys yet |
| 2:39 | : and I think that the Mets would probably not get the kind of prospect they want to give up on an iconic player for the city when they’re still near competing. you give up edwin diaz for not much, hear the trumpets elsewhere while Coby Mayo has a 102 wRC+ and bounces up and down, and the faithful will get ornery really quickly |
| 2:40 | : “I was chatting with an acquaintance who is a baseball fan and knows I work for FanGraphs, but doesn’t read my stuff”…that’s harsh |
| 2:40 | : I mean, not everyone who’s a baseball fan reads a lot about baseball |
| 2:40 | : but yes I definitely give him some grief for it |
| 2:40 | : On Savant’s pitch leaderboard it lists a ton of pitchers with arm-side movement on cutters. I thought all cutters had glove-side movement by nature? What am I missing here? |
| 2:40 | : I used to think that but it seems like some cutters these days are kinda hybrid 4s/cutter |
| 2:41 | : so like, they cut relative to a four-seamer |
| 2:41 | : I want to ask an intelligent question about the Astros, but it all basically comes down to me being sad. The frustrating part is that they’re not a bad team (1-9 in one-run games, all stars at multiple positions, etc), but you could say the same thing about the Padres last year. Sometimes it be like that I guess. |
| 2:41 | : yeah my going-forward view on the Astros hasn’t changed a ton but they’ve just had a lot of bad stuff happen all at once in the last month |
| 2:41 | : and you can’t always climb out of that hole |
| 2:42 | : Regarding pitcher injuries: we all know throwing hard is bad and mlb was hoping that stuff like 3 batter minimum and the pitch clock causes pitchers to pace themselves, sit farther from their Max and go deeper into games but obv that is not happening. So if pitchers won’t pace themselves why not increase rest by making pitching roster larger? Npb has pitchers pitch once a week and less injuries. So why not make it 30 player/18 pitcher rosters and give everyone rest? |
| 2:42 | : well, what would stop teams from just bullpenning the hell out of things then? |
| 2:42 | : ‘oh, i have five extra spots? i’m going to have five extra single-inning relievers so that i never have to worry about pulling a starter early’ |
| 2:43 | : it’s tough to define rules to incentivize your preferred style of play |
| 2:43 | : Davis Schneider: underrated or appropriately rated across baseball? He has a 165 wRC+ in his major-league career (227 PA). That is really good. And his defense has been surprising adequate for a bat-first player. |
| 2:43 | : oh, underrated for sure |
| 2:44 | : honestly I don’t think this is close |
| 2:44 | : I’ve been meaning to write about him again |
| 2:44 | : just, there are a lot of things to cover this early in the season |
| 2:44 | : Do the Guards have a shot at Tatis Jr or Chisholm? Also heard rumors about Kjerstad |
| 2:44 | : tatis jr? definitely not?? |
| 2:44 | : Chisholm, sure, it’s weird b/c I’d prefer him at 2b but that obviously isn’t an option in Cleveland |
| 2:45 | : like they’re playing a better infield defener out of position in center already |
| 2:45 | : as for Kjerstad, I mean, I don’t see a trade that makes sense but I could see the O’s dealing him at least |
| 2:45 | : whereas Tatis isn’t getting traded |
| 2:46 | : Is the sweeper a new pitch or just a new way of naming a pitch? |
| 2:46 | : It’s more the second, but also a bit of the first? |
| 2:46 | : sliders have always lived on a continuum of hard vs. sweepy |
| 2:47 | : recent advances in training have allowed more pitchers to capture the very sweepy end of the distribution |
| 2:47 | : and it got to the point where sliders were really two dissimilar pitches more so than a continuum, either cutter-y or sweeping. so the naming just followed that |
| 2:47 | : The Orioles situation is unlike anything I have seen in my long time of baseball watching. How would you handle? Trade the established major leaguers who aren’t great but are good or the untried youngsters who might turn into stars or bust? |
| 2:48 | : It’s so crazy |
| 2:48 | : I would be looking for stars in any trade I made |
| 2:48 | : they’ve been smart about this, too |
| 2:48 | : Corbin Burnes is the exact kind of player I’d be looking for |
| 2:48 | : so for me, it’s more about what you can get than what you give up |
| 2:49 | : There are downsides to each thing you trade away, like you said. But given how many core positions they already have locked down, you can play for upside in the remaining positions |
| 2:49 | : they have seemingly 4 good options everywhere |
| 2:49 | : might as well take some risk and try to get a high roll |
| 2:50 | : Jim Edmonds is a really grating broadcaster |
| 2:50 | : I don’t like criticizing broadcasters |
| 2:50 | : No one’s really getting much out of this |
| 2:50 | : But I have to say, I was having a worse time watching the Cards this weekend b/c of the booth |
| 2:51 | : Edmonds talking about the texts he was getting from a mom of one of his kids’ friends was probably the highlight for me! That’s not a great sign |
| 2:51 | : I think Bendix is the guy to fix this given his past history. They revamped everything developmentally this past offseason. Do you think he can fix this like i do? |
| 2:51 | : I have no idea |
| 2:51 | : Like, let’s be real, I’d never heard of Peter Bendix a year ago |
| 2:52 | : As I wrote in my Arraez trade analysis, if the plan is to turn into the Rays, well a)good luck and b)probably smart to have a Rays guy do it |
| 2:52 | : it’s amazing that the opening day payroll has been lower than in Jeffrey Loria’s last year |
| 2:52 | : every single year of the new ownership group |
| 2:53 | : like…. we all made fun of how stingy Loria was, and there’s been huge inflation in the interim |
| 2:53 | : and it’s not like they’re spending through the nose off the field. Maybe they’ll start, but they haven’t been |
| 2:53 | : Do you think that if things don’t improve that the dbacks send carroll back down when thomas returns? Mccarthy has been playing pretty well |
| 2:53 | : I mean…. no? |
| 2:55 | : Two XBH on 97 mph Skubal pitches. Slight change to stance. Hey maybe he’s still good! |
| 2:55 | : love when people decide Aaron Judge is bad because he doesn’t mash for a few weeks |
| 2:55 | : Is there a player who has managed to change your opinion of him so far this season? |
| 2:55 | : Kim Ng leaving Florida was kind of controversial. They wanted to demote her after they made the playoffs, but, does the Marlins start take some of the shine off of her? As the first female GM, she’s tough to judge due to the noise. |
| 2:56 | : I mean, no, if anything it adds shine |
| 2:56 | : like, the place was a wreck |
| 2:56 | : she made the playoffs with this organizational sinkhole |
| 2:56 | : then she got out when the writing was on the wall |
| 2:56 | : I thought that she made some tactical missteps (basically I don’t’ think Josh Bell was a good acquisition) but as often as not, I was wrong on those views |
| 2:57 | : and I think that going all in for a playoff spot last year made sense given that building sustainably around their existing core wasn’t possible |
| 2:57 | : I didn’t like the Arraez/Lopez trade, though, not a fan of that one at all |
| 2:58 | : Is this the season the Rays finally stop outplaying their projections by 20 games? |
| 2:58 | : Feels like it, huh? |
| 2:58 | : I don’t have anything constructive to add to that |
| 2:58 | : The Rays are just so hard to figure out that I don’t think I have any smart comments to add |
| 2:58 | : like, if it stops working, it won’t be for a reason that I can easily identify |
| 2:58 | : Everyone’s looking at the Jays and being like, ooohhh they could trade Vlad or Bo at the deadline, and I’m just over here saying they could trade Kevin Gausman at the deadline. |
| 2:59 | : I’m half with you |
| 2:59 | : I think Bo would fetch a haul, though I don’t think they’re trading him |
| 2:59 | : Gausman would be an interesting high impact arm, i think you’d get a lot back |
| 3:00 | : Vlad…. I mean, is he better than Luis Arraez? |
| 3:00 | : Serious question |
| 3:01 | : I’m thinking no, to be honest. It’s hard for me to have a lot of confidence that he’ll meaningfully outproduce Arraez’s offensive output going forward, they’re both 0’s defensively, and he’s making twice as much |
| 3:01 | : so like, I don’t think they are getting anything back |
| 3:01 | : Excluding Soto. It seems like the Friars epic off-season dealing didn’t work out too bad, Hader, and Snell look awful, and Higashioka, and Randy Vasquez are pretty good (although Jhony Brito is terrible) |
| 3:01 | : Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play |
| 3:01 | : I’ve missed you Matt Damon, welcome back |
| 3:01 | : Love to have old friends back |
| 3:02 | : Do you think the lack of a salary cap/floor is helpful or harmful to the league? |
| 3:02 | : I think it’s harmful |
| 3:02 | : cap/floor systems with more integrated revenue sharing models do a great job of enforcing competitive balance |
| 3:02 | : that said, I understand why they don’t have one |
| 3:02 | : owners aren’t really interested in adding a floor because they’ve done a very good job of instituting a de facto cap already, so they’re not getting a ton more from a hard cap |
| 3:03 | : and on the other hand, I think defining revenue is trickier for baseball than for most sports b/c of the local TV and gate revenue model, so figuring out how to define floors is quite hard |
| 3:04 | : you can imagine the players agreeing to a cap/floor system 10 years ago, seeing it not go up as much as it should, and having total compensation to players be much lwoer for the same amount of revenue in the game. I get why they’re hesitant |
| 3:04 | : it’s one of those issues where I think that if we had a baseball czar who could set the rules dispassionately, it’d be great. But we don’t have one of those, and given the existing interests, the right solution is probably just to stick with the existing system |
| 3:05 | : I had some belief in the Red Sox pitching before the season started but this has shocked even this old diehard fan. Is Andrew Bailey this good or is the fan about to get in the way? |
| 3:05 | : I really don’t know! |
| 3:05 | : The Red Sox pitching this year is definitely the great mystery of the year |
| 3:05 | : I thought that 1 or maybe 2 of Houck/Crawford/Whitlock would pan out as starters |
| 3:06 | : and I mean, I suppose I was kind of right, but I didn’t mean two would pan out like this |
| 3:06 | : so I would not give myself much credit at all |
| 3:06 | : and Cooper Criswell? I mean, wow |
| 3:06 | : I don’t think that either Houck or Crawford is a sustianable ace-level pitcher, still |
| 3:07 | : I think they’re both pretty good, though, and I’ve bumped up my estimation of both. One thing that I’ve always struggled with is how much of that credit to give to the player and how much to the org, as it relates to future performance expectations |
| 3:07 | : like, should I expect Nick Pivetta to have a sub-3 ERA b/c the other dudes have gotten better too? |
| 3:07 | : I don’t know and it has me very interested in watching the Sox the rest of the way to find out |
| 3:08 | : Also re: trading Gausman, where’s the Kikuchi love? He’s been the better pitcher since last June |
| 3:08 | : I think teams would send more in return for Gausman just for the track record, and might be a little hesitant to send a bag for Kikuchi b/c it feels less permanent. But yes, he’s been great |
| 3:08 | : I loved seeing him gas up to face Ohtani, I think he threw all of his hardest pitches in his career, or at least something close to that |
| 3:09 | : Prediction: 2019 gave us the rabbit ball and 2024 will be the anti rabbit ball and have everyone regretting thinking average pitchers were breaking out |
| 3:09 | : I don’t think we’re back to 2014 baseballs or anything but yeah |
| 3:09 | : the home run rate decline is a very real reason for a lot of pitchers’ improvement, and it has me focusing more on K/BB stuff than ERA and FIP |
| 3:09 | : Only a month into the season, and I am sick of the Dodgers already. They’re worse than the Yankees at the height of their “Evil Empire” days, and their sense of entitlement is obnoxious. What can I do to make baseball fun instead of repulsive this year? |
| 3:10 | : Oh man, I have many options. Pick a fun young team and follow them instead of hate-watching the Dodgers. Ignore the rest of the Dodgers and just watch Mookie Betts, who I think is delightful |
| 3:10 | : Listen to good broadcasters |
| 3:10 | : Celebrate Jared Jones Day |
| 3:10 | : Reds just toast? Their offense looks putrid. |
| 3:10 | : This feels premature |
| 3:10 | : also they’re scoring 4.5 runs per game |
| 3:11 | : that’s in the top half of baseball! |
| 3:11 | : offense sucks this year |
| 3:11 | : We saw the Marlins’ haul from the Padres, but what would it take to get Arraez out of you? (Did this pun?) |
| 3:11 | : if by arraez, you mean awrychuckle, definitely yes |
| 3:11 | : Any reason for concern on Logan Webb? Fastball velo looked to be down a tick or two yesterday. |
| 3:11 | : nah, i’m not too worried |
| 3:12 | : we have this neat pitch velocity chart option on player pages under ‘graphs’ |
| 3:12 | : definitely his lowest of the season but hardly out of range of recent years. now if it keeps happening, I’ll pay attention |
| 3:12 | : but this is a good way of showing that it’s definitely within career norms |
| 3:12 | : actually huh |
| 3:13 | : for some reason that’s defaulting to a changeup |
| 3:13 | : i gotta ask about that, it’s usually fastballs. probably something with someone who doesn’t throw four-seamers |
| 3:13 | : that said, I went into the URL and changed it to sinkers: |
| 3:14 | : and same deal, it’s low but not by enough to make me panic |
| 3:14 | : Can you pass along compliments to Davy on today’s piece about the Mets broadcast? What a fantastic peek behind the curtain! |
| 3:14 | : I can, and in fact I’ve been talking about that article both internally and with friends today |
| 3:14 | : Davy is on a crazy hot streak |
| 3:14 | : or well, maybe he’s just always been this good |
| 3:14 | : but he’s been crushing it recently |
| 3:15 | : Re- Ng- Yeah, I always figured she was an average GM..which means may be above average when you considered the Marlins ownership meddling. Not perfect, made some mistakes, but, tough to sort out the wheat from the chaff with the situation |
| 3:15 | : Yeah, that’s about the size of it from my perspective. I also think that GM evaluation is pretty tough |
| 3:15 | : like there’s tactical evaluation adn then strategic evaluation, and we never know how much ownership interferes with the strategic decision making side |
| 3:15 | : What’s a better fun baseball story: A) Moe Berg becoming a spy behind enemy lines in WW2 post playing career B) Ron LeFlore being scouted by Billy Martin in a prison yard game and signing a contract to kickstart a fairly successful MLB career C) Olympic sprinter Herb Washington’s at bat-less career that morphed into being the largest African-American McDonald’s franchisee and later a job as a Director at the NY Federal Reserve |
| 3:16 | : okay for me it’s Herb Washington (I’ve been thinking about this one for a while) |
| 3:16 | : b/c you got me with the NY Fed reference |
| 3:16 | : they’re all pretty great stories though |
| 3:16 | : Has the league figured out Julio Rodriguez? Watching his at bats these days it seems pretty obvious that teams are just pounding him inside with velocity, then making him expand the zone with off speed stuff until he strikes out. Do you think he’ll make the adjustment at some point and figure things out? |
| 3:16 | : I think he’ll make an adjustment, b/c he’s been good at it |
| 3:16 | : ‘figured him out’ implies that it’s the end of the story, but this is just a continual struggle between pitchers and hitters |
| 3:17 | : and I’m willing to bet on stars figuring things out |
| 3:17 | : When speaking of the sweeper I always thought Chris Sale’s unhittable breaking ball was really what would today be called a sweeper rather than a slider which I perceive to be a much tighter and sharper curve. Where would the Braves be without him? |
| 3:17 | : Yeah, Sale is a good example of a pitcher who didn’t need new training methods to learn a bendy slider, he just had one |
| 3:18 | : I mean, they’d be fine, on course to be a great team. But I think he makes their postseason roster look a lot better, and they’re surely overjoyed that he looks both healthy and effective so far |
| 3:18 | : it’s ironic that Grissom has been the injured one |
| 3:18 | : Even with Jones here, Skenes coming and being in a mid division, are the Pirates going to have to spend somewhat to become a consistent force in the Central? The Cubs system is loaded and the Brew Crew is run by very smart people. |
| 3:19 | : I think I agree with this. It’s shocking that they’re in last in the central with the Cardinals imploding and Jared Jones going nova |
| 3:19 | : er, I guess they’re now a half game out of the cellar |
| 3:19 | : but like…. this is when things are going good! |
| 3:19 | : I was listening to your segment on EW where you mentioned requiring both the eye test and stats to line up in a small sample for you to be more inclined to believe something, so I present 2024 Salvy Perez: not a terrible framer anymore? At +1 framing runs so far, and he hasn’t *looked* terrible. Any signal to this noise? |
| 3:19 | : HOnestly, I haven’t watched enough to say |
| 3:19 | : but now I’ll keep my eye out for it when I watch the Royals |
| 3:20 | : Mookie hasn’t homered in his last 93 PAs. However, he has only struck out 4 times and has a 167 wrc+ in that span. Has there been a shift in approach or is there any other explanation for the drought? |
| 3:20 | : I think this is just how Mookie works |
| 3:20 | : sometimes he gets on these heaters where he’s seeing the ball big and clobbers everything |
| 3:20 | : but his approach is so rock solid overall that he’s a plus hitter when he’s not home run binging |
| 3:20 | : and then the binges really put him over the top |
| 3:20 | : Can you explain the Kendrick/Drake rap beef with a baseball analogy? |
| 3:20 | : Okay i have been pondering this one for a long time |
| 3:21 | : and now I’m just throwing it in the chat log so that I stop answering other questions until I can come up with an answer to it |
| 3:21 | : I mean, we all get feuds, these two stars are having a disagreement about who’s better |
| 3:22 | : I’m biased, I’m a big Kendrick guy myself, but I think it’d be like if we got a war of words between the Yankees and Mets where the Mets were claiming to be the long-term team of the city, the true New Yorker’s choice |
| 3:23 | : and then the Yankees started tearing the Mets to shreds in every interview they did, like truly without remorse and exposing every detail of their inadequacy |
| 3:23 | : every single time |
| 3:23 | : the sheer degree of vitriol on display is staggering |
| 3:23 | : I mean, any of the last 3 Kendrick songs would be a good entry in the pantheon of great rap disses |
| 3:23 | : three in like four days, it’s outrageous |
| 3:24 | : With the information available until now, is Nick Pivetta a likely QO receiver? |
| 3:24 | : I would hate it if Salvatore Perez, a great player, would be kept out of the Hall of Fame over something as nebulous as framing. |
| 3:24 | : That’s an interesting question. Baseball References doesn’t use framing and has him pretty far short of the mark by JAWS |
| 3:25 | : 20 career war short, 10 peak war short, so 15 jaws short of the average HOF C |
| 3:25 | : 2000 Subway Series |
| 3:25 | : What lyric is Roger Clemens in this analogy? |
| 3:25 | : “has me focusing more on K/BB stuff than ERA and FIP” This is interesting to me. Would you be willing to elaborate on your reasoning, and what *other* metrics you lean on more right now to evaluate pitching? |
| 3:26 | : It’s basically that home run rate feels really variable at the moment and perhaps not likely to stick |
| 3:26 | : so if you’re just the same guy, only suddenly balls are carrying 15 less feet and so you’re giving up .7 hr/9 instead of 1.2, what am I really learning about you |
| 3:26 | : numbers all arbitrary, please don’t quote them as gospel |
| 3:26 | : John Means – more of a “dominated a slumping team” or a “he’s back”? |
| 3:27 | : I’m leaning towards the first but only b/c I’m gonna want to see another start either way |
| 3:27 | : With the new PPI program rewarding teams for calling up prospects, shouldn’t RoY voting be confined to prospects? Seems like MLB might need a separate award (or no award) for international players who are in their first year in MLB. What do you think? |
| 3:27 | : That’s a very good point |
| 3:27 | : do you think it should exclude the players who aren’t eligible b/c they signed pre-debut extensions? |
| 3:28 | : I think that most likely, the PPI will be further refined with the next CBA |
| 3:28 | : both sides seem fairly happy with it so far, and it definitely creates good storylines |
| 3:28 | : Love the Kendrick/Drake analogy but hate that it means I’m rooting for the Yankees |
| 3:28 | : Ugh I know right? |
| 3:28 | : but I think it’s hard to argue that Kendrick is the Evil Empire in this |
| 3:29 | : In Saturday’s game, Marmol brought in Helsley to pitch the top of the ninth in a tie game. Game went to the tenth, Sox scored the Manfred runner to win. What do the numbers say about taking your chances with a lower leverage pitcher in the ninth, and holding your best high leverage pitcher back to potentially pitch the tenth when the inning starts with a runner on second? |
| 3:29 | : What a spectacular question |
| 3:29 | : I bet you a really smart writer did something about this in 2020 when the rules changed |
| 3:29 | : oh, no, it was only me. but still, a writer did something about this! |
| 3:29 | : The numbers say that you should do it |
| 3:29 | : save your reliever for the 10th |
| 3:30 | : b/c the strikeouts just matter more |
| 3:30 | : It’s a small edge, but hey, baseball is a game of small edges |
| 3:30 | : and former Milwaukee Buck Junior Bridgeman is the largest Wendy’s franchisee in the country..at least he was at one point. |
| 3:30 | : I have to be honest, I don’t know who that is |
| 3:30 | : shout out to Wendy’s, though. We travel around California enough that we’ve assembled a ranking of fast food places and Wendy’s is the only one of the ginormous national chains in the top 3 |
| 3:31 | : actually, no that’s not fair |
| 3:31 | : Chik Fil A is number 1 |
| 3:31 | : and they’re ginormous and national now, I was kinda living in the past |
| 3:31 | : but it’s Chik Fil A, In N Out, Wendy’s, and then a huuuuuuuge tier break |
| 3:31 | : I’m confused by your Yankees/Mets analogy. Which one is Drake? |
| 3:31 | : Drake is the Mets |
| 3:31 | : like, he should not be getting into this feud |
| 3:32 | : I like the Mets on their own merits, and I enjoy Drake for his try-hard meme-y qualities |
| 3:32 | : but the Mets are not the Yankees and Drake is not someone who should get in a rap feud with the best rapper alive |
| 3:32 | : That’s Clemens |
| 3:32 | : hard to argue with that |
| 3:32 | : I laughed pretty hard at that line even as corny as it was |
| 3:32 | : Jared Jones odds of getting a Cy Young vote or 3? |
| 3:33 | : he’s going to pitch against most teams in baseball this year and the word of mouth is just incredible |
| 3:33 | : Junior Bridgeman- Good 6th man for the 80’s.Sidney Moncrief/Jack Sikma era Milwaukee Bucks. |
| 3:33 | : Jack Sikma is a wonderful name |
| 3:33 | : more Sikma’s in sports please |
| 3:33 | : About the Rays, I mean how much of the issue comes from having your star SS in so much legal trouble that his career is possibly over at age 22/23? I mean they made decisions, trading Adames, based on Wander being the guy |
| 3:33 | : certainly that didn’t help! |
| 3:34 | : and Arozarena having a down year when they’re leaning on him more didn’t either |
| 3:34 | : it’s definitely amusing to me that for the third year in a row, everyone said it was going to fall apart for Paredes and instead he’s improved his wRC+ meaningfully |
| 3:34 | : i think it’s gonna come back down but just, hilarious! |
| 3:34 | : I love Paredes |
| 3:35 | : Which struggling OF rebound do you believe more in this season: George Springer or Nick Castellanos? |
| 3:35 | : Springer for me |
| 3:35 | : just b/c like I said earlier, I think the Castellanos thing is over |
| 3:35 | : Considering his below average base running, what kind of triple slash line does Masataka Yoshida needs to have to be a 3 WAR player with 500 AB? Would 290/350/450 be close? |
| 3:35 | : hm, at Fenway? let’s look for some examples |
| 3:36 | : I think that’d be close but it would depend on his LF defense, and he wouldn’t make it there if he ends up as a pure DH |
| 3:36 | : Devers was 271/351/500 last year, and that was a 124 wRC+ |
| 3:36 | : What are the best statcast stats to predict homeruns for batters and pitchers? |
| 3:37 | : for hitters, I think Statcast has a bunch of good exmaples |
| 3:37 | : barrel rate, sweet spot percentage, exit velo |
| 3:37 | : those things all correlate well |
| 3:37 | : It’s tricky with pitchers b/c hitters do a lot more of the ‘supplying power’ side of things |
| 3:37 | : like once the hitter CAN make contact with your pitch, you’re kind of at their mercy in terms of how hard they hit it |
| 3:37 | : that said: fly ball rate, and ball in play rate, are both good |
| 3:38 | : As a lifelong Midwesterner I’m suggesting you try some Culver’s expeditiously, best fast food burger out there by far |
| 3:38 | : I mean…. not a lot of Culvers on the road from here to Yosemite, sadly |
| 3:38 | : My wife is from Milwaukee, my dad’s from St. Louis, and I do enjoy Culver’s |
| 3:38 | : PIT should debut Skenes at home to sell tickets. He lines up for home starts Fri, May-10 (CHC), or Tue, May-21 (SFG). If they wait then we are looking at (ATL) or (LAD). Those are tough. I worry if not 10th or 21st then we are looking at blatant Service time manipulation pushing out to Tue, Jun-18 (CIN). What’s your best guess? |
| 3:38 | : I’m loving the bolding here |
| 3:39 | : I sadly think Jun 18 is likely |
| 3:39 | : b/c it gives them a shot at squeezing him under Super 2 eligibility and gaining an even cheaper 7th year |
| 3:39 | : like the Rays did with Franco back in the day |
| 3:39 | : Rather than incentives, just make a rule, something like “Any pitcher who throws more than X innings or Y pitches can’t pitch again for Z days”. |
| 3:39 | : Re: pitcher incentive XYZ, the amusing thing would be watching the players union come out against it because of what it would do to starting pitcher salaries when starters lose 10-20% of their starts |
| 3:39 | : right, incentives and rules are SO hard |
| 3:40 | : I don’t feel comfortable coming up with a specific one off the top of my head b/c teams and players are good at gaming rules |
| 3:40 | : the world is good at gaming rules |
| 3:40 | : that’s how you end up with a byzantine tax code, legal code, etc. etc. |
| 3:40 | : Speaking of solid K/BB, turns out not being injured is good |
| 3:40 | : Baseball is more fun when you are pitching, my friend |
| 3:40 | : *something* clearly got exposed for Holliday in his callup, and they are clearly still exploiting it in AAA. What I can’t find: any idea what precisely that something was? |
| 3:40 | : I have no idea! |
| 3:40 | : I have been wondering this |
| 3:40 | : I do think that some of it is just that he got his teeth kicked in and that feels bad |
| 3:40 | : and it’s hard to bounce back immediately sometimes |
| 3:40 | : I’m pretty sure he will |
| 3:41 | : The Royals did pretty well when Salvy was donning the tools of ignorance in almost every game. That is important by the way, so a team doesn’t have to put Otto Out in the lineup. A perfect example of a player who has passed the eye test in every way but is hammered by secondary things which are very subjective. 5 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers, 10th in HR’s all-time. World Series MVP. Baseball is better when he is on the field. |
| 3:42 | : Yeah, I like Salvy quite a bit. I’m not a huge buyer of those Gold Gloves, to be fair, like if we’re excluding measurable fielding stuff, I think we have to exclude those. I think you could make a vibes-based argument for putting him in the hall, he was the face of an important franchise for a decade, and kind of still is even as they’ve declined and rebounded |
| 3:42 | : I’m a big hall guy, though |
| 3:43 | : if you think the Hall should be about as expansive, in terms of percentage of players, as it currently is, I don’t think he hits the bar |
| 3:43 | : there are only 17 catchers in the hall, that’s wild |
| 3:43 | : For those of you who don’t follow rap, Kendrick is Jeter. Drake thinks he’s Mike Piazza but he’s Rey Ordoñez. |
| 3:43 | : oh man, don’t do this to Kendrick. He’s Mariano Rivera or smoething |
| 3:44 | : You like Carroll or Rodriguez to recover more fully the rest of the year? |
| 3:44 | : Julio for me, because I’m more worried about injury with Carroll |
| 3:44 | : and also I would have taken Julio over Carroll before the season so I’ll just stick with it |
| 3:44 | : Since April 22 the Reds offense has hit .182/.247/.280 and averaged 1.8 R/G. They’re obviously playing short-handed due to injuries and I know random variation exists (more than most think). But please tell me somebody besides ELDC is going to figure out how to use a bat. |
| 3:44 | : Yeah they are really giving the Cards a run for thei rmoney for worst NLC offense of the past two weeks |
| 3:45 | : but eh, slumps happen, particularly when homers are’nt going out |
| 3:45 | : I am most worried about Christian Encarnacion-Strand, like what the HELL is going on there |
| 3:45 | : Spencer Steer looking good, though |
| 3:45 | : I mean, not necessarily in the outfield. But overall |
| 3:46 | : No love for Dock Ellis throwing a no hitter on LSD? |
| 3:46 | : Oh another classic |
| 3:46 | : We’re going speed round here, this chat accidentally went VERY long b/c I was having so much fun |
| 3:46 | : With a listed height/weight of 6’5″, 210 lbs, I could certainly believe that Junior Bridgeman is the largest Wendy’s franchisee |
| 3:46 | : Gotta assume Shaq has a Wendy’s b/c he seems to have an everything |
| 3:46 | : What is up with the Atlanta non-Ozuna power outage? I know Ronnie isn’t lifting the ball much, but sheesh. Riley, Olson, and RAJ are all running horrific ISOs… |
| 3:46 | : Baseball is running horrific ISO’s |
| 3:47 | : lowest since 2014 |
| 3:47 | : What grade would you give Shota’s 92mph fastball? |
| 3:48 | : 60 for me, let’s see how it does when it’s hot in Chicago but particularly with less carry on the balls, the downside of ‘what happens if they hit it’ is mitigated and he misses bats plu locates well |
| 3:48 | : is luis garcia jr just a babip story or is something clicking? |
| 3:48 | : clicking, but also babip |
| 3:48 | : How do the Mariners improve? It seems a lot of their problem is that the guys who are supposed to hit are not hitting and the guys who aren’t supposed to hit are. There doesn’t seem to be a clear way forward besides hoping that guys get better. Do they sit it out, or do they try to find trade targets. Jazz Chisholm? |
| 3:48 | : Yeah I could see Jazz there. although polanco is FINALLY hitting a little |
| 3:48 | : Speaking of “goofy stuff” in baseball writing, I recently read Frank Chance’s Diamond, a Ring Lardner collection edited by veteran writer Ron Rapoport. Some straight baseball reportage, but also stuff like half in bad French, in the form of Hamlet’s soliloquy, etc. I was aware of Lardner, but had never read his stuff. Plan to read more. A genius, though he always regretted the end of the dead-ball era. |
| 3:49 | : Any advice to help me figure things out and re-establish my spot in the big leagues? How many innings/starts would you need to see, and how good would those innings need to be, to convince you I’m back? |
| 3:49 | : stop walking everyone |
| 3:49 | : I dunno, I’m always wrong on Manoah, I believed this year and then I watched yesterday and nope! |
| 3:49 | : Sweepers are just cool slurves |
| 3:49 | : Is there a starter you WOULDN’T start against the CWS? I’m having a hard time coming up with one… |
| 3:49 | : in fantasy? n ah |
| 3:49 | : in real life? Lance Lynn got kinda toasted |
| 3:49 | : but I still would have run him out there in fantasy |
| 3:49 | : Kendrick is obviously Bryce Harper and Drake is Orlando Arcia |
| 3:49 | : oh god I like this one way too much |
| 3:50 | : alright, gotta run, have a great day everyone |
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
