| 2:00 | : Hey everybody, welcome to the chat |
| 2:00 | : Let’s talk about some baseball, and really I hope to talk about playoff races |
| 2:00 | : Obviously Gunnar Henderson has been great. But should Orioles fans be concerned long-term about the cratering walk rate in the second half? Or just take the XBH’s and shut up about it? |
| 2:01 | : Yeah, more or less the second thing |
| 2:02 | : He seems to be pretty good when it comes to plate discipline and controlling the strike zone in the long term. We’re not talking about Keston Hiura here or anything. |
| 2:02 | : I think this will paste okay: |
| 2:02 | : That’s 15-game swinging strike rate, rolling across his season, and eh, I’m not too worried. He looks like a great hitter to me |
| 2:03 | : I dunno if you watched either of Kershaw’s last two outings, but Hard To Watch is a euphemism. I’ve felt lucky to root for him for a long time, but if this is all he can do (high 80s with bad command), then I don’t see how pitching him helps anyone. Maybe he just needs more rest, maybe he could even figure out an Eck/Smoltz kinda denouement, but starting with his stuff is a playoff disaster waiting to happen, and one he shouldn’t/doesn’t deserve to absorb, imo. What do you think happens here? |
| 2:04 | : I have not watched them, but this feels like a scalding hot take to me |
| 2:04 | : It’s two starts |
| 2:04 | : My guess is that he’ll end up overexposed in the playoffs because that’s how Dave Roberts likes to manage |
| 2:04 | : But all over the place in terms of health and velocity feels like Kershaw of recent vintage to me |
| 2:05 | : he was pretty amazing in June, I think they will probably try to get him a lot of rest down the stretch and hope that comes back |
| 2:05 | : Who do you have taking the NL West and AL East crowns? |
| 2:05 | : Let’s start with NL West, and uh… Dodgers |
| 2:05 | : but presuming that was a typo, I’ll go Astros and Orioles |
| 2:06 | : gotta stick with my preseason predictions, but also those seem like the odds on picks |
| 2:06 | : our team projections really hate the O’s, they have all year |
| 2:07 | : and even they give them an 80% chance of winning the division |
| 2:07 | : two games in hand and the tiebreaker is a ton |
| 2:07 | : Cedric Mullins has gone from a Cutter/Slider killer in his 2021 30/30 season to a Sinker/Splitter killer in 2023. Do most players stay consistently good at hitting certain pitches or do these things fluctuate through a career. |
| 2:07 | : Particularly by linear weights pitch type values, they fluctuate a ton |
| 2:08 | : for kinda the reason you might expect – if you BABIP .400 against cutters one year, your numbers will look pretty good |
| 2:09 | : I try not to read too much into those, and focus more on swinging strike rates or hard contact rates or things like that by pitch type |
| 2:09 | : In Mullins’s case specifically, he just seems good at hitting everything to me. I don’t have him as a fastball or offspeed hunter in particular, just a well-rounded hitter who can take what the pitcher gives him |
| 2:09 | : I’m curious what it’s like as an up and down major leaguer. You make a lot more than an average American but not enough to fully retire after your playing days are over and most of your coworkers (and perhaps many of your friends) make a lot more than you. You presumably have expenses (travel and training related) that would make no sense for most people to spend on. Short of interviewing a major leaguers you struck me as a most insightful person to ask about this. |
| 2:09 | : I wonder about this a lot |
| 2:10 | : So in that sense, maybe I’m the right person to ask |
| 2:10 | : I think that it’s kinda hopeless to expect these guys to compare themselves to the average American. People unavoidably compare themselves to their peers, and the peer group for an up-and-down bullpen guy is major league players |
| 2:11 | : That said, the odds are really good that you LOVE baseball if you make it that far |
| 2:11 | : So the path of least resistance is to end up doing baseball-related things |
| 2:12 | : I bet the expenses thing messes people up, but the ‘all my friends are rich’ thing doesn’t feel like a huge deal to me, to be honest |
| 2:12 | : I’ve been on both sides of that divide at various points and eh, the friendships that are largely about comparing status don’t last very long |
| 2:12 | : the people you really get along with, you stick with and hey, if they’re doing well, good for them |
| 2:12 | : Bringing the family for what will hopefully be Waino’s #200 but more likely will be an early hook followed by 3-4 innings in the kid area before we go home! |
| 2:13 | : Going to milestone games is so cool, I hope you see it |
| 2:13 | : I also hope so for Wainwright’s sake |
| 2:13 | : It’s been a nightmare 10 days for the Cubs. Are they toast? |
| 2:13 | : I wanted to write about this, but I just kept coming up with talk radio level takes |
| 2:14 | : long time listener, first time caller, the Cubs will never score a run agian |
| 2:14 | : that kind of thing |
| 2:14 | : Let me just say this: they need to get busy |
| 2:14 | : They have six easy games coming up, Pirates and Rockies at home |
| 2:15 | : If they go 3-3 or worse, I think they’re cooked, because they finish with 3 in ATL and three in MIlwaukee |
| 2:15 | : Delusional Padres fan here who can’t walk away. The Pads have a very easy schedule ROS. If (BIG if) the can win out, and get to 84-78, what do you think the chances are they squeeze in the last wild card spot? |
| 2:16 | : okay so I think this more or less eliminates the Giants, since the Pads would sweep them, getting them to 77 losses |
| 2:16 | : It’d also give the Padres the tiebreaker |
| 2:17 | : Alright this is gonna take me a second to look at all the tiebreakers but I want to, fun question |
| 2:18 | : they don’t have the breaker against anyone in the race other than the Marlins, unless I’m misunderstanding it. So that means that 3 of the DBacks/Cubs/Marlins/Reds need to finish with 79 losses or more |
| 2:19 | : that basically means having a losing record the rest of the way for those teams |
| 2:20 | : so let’s call that a 40% proposition for each team |
| 2:20 | : I think that works out to there being an 18% chance or so of making the playoffs if the Padres win out |
| 2:20 | : not too bad! |
| 2:20 | : Is Mozeliak already walking back the “we’re getting 3 starters” thing? Sure seems like it based on his comments from this past weekend. |
| 2:20 | : It definitely feels that way |
| 2:20 | : I think that was a rash thing to say in the first palce to be honest |
| 2:20 | : Got a 2:05pm lineup lock question so your promptness is super appreciated. Trying to struggle bus my way back to 4th place. I’m only separated by 3 runs to move up 2 spots, and a few stolen bases. I need some lineup help, do I go with Yelich this week or go with Blackmon? |
| 2:20 | : d go with Yelich |
| 2:21 | : although I’m not sure if this 2:05 lineup lock is EST, in which case sorry |
| 2:21 | : Just going down the cue in time order at the moment |
| 2:21 | : six away games for the Rockies this week |
| 2:21 | : Can the Dodgers actually duct tape a rotation together for the playoffs? How do you see them doing it? |
| 2:22 | : I think they’ll manage it in a stereotypically ugly way, with a ton of bullpen-y games and some ugly blowups papered over by the great offense |
| 2:22 | : They really do not have enough starters |
| 2:22 | : Sheehan is gonna have to do some WORK out of the pen |
| 2:22 | : Any game where Yordan Alvarez plays LF, Yanier Diaz should be DH if he’s not catching… Right? Help me understand why Diaz has been on the bench so frequently. He seems like a legit power bat to me based on results and statcast data |
| 2:23 | : I think that’s moooostly true? |
| 2:23 | : I’d like to get Brantley back in the groove before the playoffs if possible |
| 2:24 | : and resting Diaz probably has good knock-on effects long-term. But that’s assuming he needs the rest because the Astros plan on using him heavily in the playoffs, and that’s not clear to me at all given his usage all year |
| 2:24 | : if what you’re saying is that the Astros are underutilizing him, i mean, yeah |
| 2:24 | : it’s silly |
| 2:25 | : Elite walk/strike out stats. Do you have any scouting reports on this undrafted over achiever? |
| 2:25 | : pretty much nothing, tbh |
| 2:25 | : He’s the kind of guy Eric gets the scoop on every offseason |
| 2:26 | : the one I think of, because I’m a Cardinals fan, is Kodi Whitley. I’d never heard of this guy and then BAM, every public prospect writer got the look all at once and he was a known quantity before he debuted |
| 2:27 | : so I’d say watch this space (FanGraphs) for offseason updates) |
| 2:27 | : Should Guardians fans be optimistic following this year given the impressive performance of their young pitchers (and the returns of Bieber and McKenzie), or more concerned given their offensive regressions? |
| 2:27 | : I think pessimistic, because Jose Ramirez is another year older and they went below .500 in a bad division |
| 2:28 | : that said, I’m excited to see whether Josh Naylor can finally put things together for a full year |
| 2:28 | : Honestly, this year might count |
| 2:28 | : A Cleveland hitter with actual power? It’s maybe true |
| 2:28 | : after a few years of the current playoff setup, how do you like it? |
| 2:29 | : I think overall I like it |
| 2:29 | : the worst division winner getting punished is a good feature in my opinion |
| 2:29 | : I do not like the flattening of the third wild card/semi-contender space, and its effect on the deadline |
| 2:29 | : I’d like to see something changed there, perhaps a later trade deadline |
| 2:29 | : But the three-game series are really fun |
| 2:29 | : and I think an appropriate handicap for WC teams |
| 2:30 | : WSox fan here, but I will be following the Cubs for the playoffs. Does their pitching stack up okay for the playoffs? Who lines up 1-4? (Their lineup should have no holes) |
| 2:31 | : I assume Stroman will be ready to go by then, but I guess that’s not 100% |
| 2:31 | : Steele/Hendricks/Taillon feel like locks to me. I’m guessing they are between Wicks and Stroman for that last spot |
| 2:32 | : I’d have Hendricks behind Wicks, personally, and on the bubble, but the team seems higher on Hendricks htan me, and I’m sure that his longevity matters |
| 2:32 | : How does the Nationals’ rebuild look to you as the season winds down? |
| 2:33 | : Pretty good! I like the signs of life from Abrams, the prospects are looking solid, I still kind of believe in Luis Garcia |
| 2:34 | : If you think the team is going to pour a bunch of money into being good when they think they’re ready, a la Jayson Werth signaling a surge in their previous cycle, I think that next year will be very important |
| 2:34 | : because if the young guys take a step forward, you could start seeing the groundwork come in right after that |
| 2:34 | : How much do you expect missing an entire season to hurt my development? I’ll be 25 next year, and a lot of my issues are things that primarily improve with game reps – can I still be a 30/30 (or 40/40) guy? |
| 2:34 | : Sadly, a lot |
| 2:34 | : I’m a big Cruz fan, but the reps clock really matters |
| 2:34 | : and he’s just running out of time |
| 2:35 | : Feels like people should be talking more about Ryan Noda. A rule 5 pick putting up a 130 wrc+ and over 2 WAR in only 450 PAs. Nice work if you can get it |
| 2:35 | : I think that the A’s are just so depressing this year that their success stories are going under-appreciated |
| 2:35 | : Is Yainer Diaz the best hitting backup in baseball history? |
| 2:36 | : I think I’m gonna have to give that honor to Lou Gehrig |
| 2:36 | : baseball history goes back a long way |
| 2:36 | : Who’s the best team in the AL? Seems like you can make a pretty decent argument for almost any of the likely playoff teams. |
| 2:36 | : I like the Astros |
| 2:36 | : But yeah, it’s crowded at hte top in the AL |
| 2:36 | : Are there any playoff matches you’re really hoping to see? |
| 2:36 | : Dodgers Braves is fun. But O’s/Rays again would be great |
| 2:36 | : I’ve loved their series this year |
| 2:37 | : a texas showdown with Scherzer facing Verlander is now off the table, that would have been up there otherwise |
| 2:37 | : Lot of mixed signals with Elly…his SwStr and z contact are at least sneezing distance from average, and his K rate is encouragingly about what it was in AAA, but his GB% and O-Zone% are ugly. For 2024, is this a buy low guy who is an adjustment from exploding, or merely a lotto ticket? |
| 2:37 | : I’m on an adjustment away from exploding just because of his age and tools |
| 2:37 | : I dunno where he’s gonna be valued in fantasy, though. I could imagine him being a really high pick because of the hype, at which point the equation doesn’t work that well |
| 2:38 | : Looking at two very young SS, who are you more encouraged by and buy into long-term: CJ Abrams or Volpe? |
| 2:38 | : Volpe by a long way |
| 2:39 | : I think you have to project too much improvement in Abrams’s defense still |
| 2:39 | : he shows flashes, but I’m not in on it yet |
| 2:40 | : and I like Volpe’s ceiling more as a hitter. Abrams feels a bit more capped to me offensively because of his approach |
| 2:40 | : That said I might be letting my preseason view of Abrams creep into this evaluation too much |
| 2:40 | : It’s a good one to look back into after the year |
| 2:41 | : I was quite down on Abrams because of, well, the arc of his career |
| 2:41 | : but this is a really encouraging season for him, no doubt |
| 2:41 | : All else being equal, would two hitters, one with a .250/.350/.450 line and the other with a .300/.350/.450 line, have the same or different wRC+ values? |
| 2:41 | : probably the same ish |
| 2:41 | : Ben, Davis Schneider’s wRC+ has dropped nearly 60 points (to 193) since you wrote about him. Why did you jinx him (because there’s obviously no other explanation)? Also, over/under 125 for his end of season wRC+? |
| 2:42 | : Over! but yeah, haha, whoops |
| 2:42 | : Am I just being an overly emotional fan when I argue the biggest mistake the Jays have made in recent memory was failing to give Anthopolous full control, which ended his tenure in Toronto? |
| 2:42 | : No I think that’s probably right |
| 2:42 | : clearly he’s pretty good at it |
| 2:43 | : and I don’t have any other glaring things to point out |
| 2:43 | : I think I must have mixed up some of the tiebreak situations |
| 2:43 | : that’s what makes this math hard |
| 2:43 | : if they have the tiebreak over two teams, then it jumps up a lot |
| 2:43 | : and I maybe didn’t even implement the first one right |
| 2:43 | : I should create a ZiPS of my own |
| 2:43 | : (note: definitely not doing that, also can’t do that) |
| 2:43 | : Mariners Rangers fighting for WC3 with 7 out of their last 10 games against each other. Just like we thought at at the trade deadline. |
| 2:43 | : It’s gonna be awesome |
| 2:44 | : i fully expect to be gaslit by Mozeliak this offseason that dakota hudson made improvements this year to warrant a starting spot in ’24 |
| 2:44 | : An annual ritual |
| 2:44 | : Why aren’t peripheral stats for hitters not often brought up by award voters compared to pitcher peripherals? Is it because a hitter can still be successful without leading the league in xwOBA? |
| 2:45 | : Eh, I think it’d be very weird to bring up expected statistics in an awards discussion, personally |
| 2:45 | : the pitcher peripherals we’re using still care about what actually happened on the field, you nkow? |
| 2:45 | : like, they pick and choose which events to give more weight to |
| 2:45 | : but I think the Isaac Paredes of it all makes it kinda claer that when we can measure the outcomes well, we should focus more on those outcomes |
| 2:46 | : You speak of pennant races and yesterday proved again why baseball is the greatest game. 2 games with tremendous importance were in the same spot. Jays led the Red Sox and Rays led the Orioles by 1 run with 2 outs and nobody on the las of the 9th. Devers homered to tie and the O’s get a double from Frazier to tie, then a hit from Rutschman with 2 outs in the 10th to tie it again. One of the best games I have watched and theintensity of the crowd was off the charts. |
| 2:46 | : You have to love it |
| 2:46 | : What are your thoughts on the orioles massive win over the rays yesterday? |
| 2:46 | : What an awesome series overall, playoff races are really fun |
| 2:46 | : The Pirates are ONE game below .500 since the all-star break and have won 4 of their last 6 series. They started ridiculously hot then went embarrassingly south and those two streaks of play were covered extensively by the media. Then the narrative was frozen. The fact that they have managed to go .500 for almost half a season since has been ignored. I guess my question is, why? |
| 2:46 | : Teams that are dead in the water for playoff races basically get their records ignored in the second half |
| 2:46 | : it’s not unique to the Pirates |
| 2:47 | : The Nats are 30-30 since the break, the Mets are 27-32, Detroit is 31-29 |
| 2:48 | : I haven’t really heard much about any of those teams pulling out of a tailspin either |
| 2:48 | : It’s just, eh, boring |
| 2:48 | : With the expanded playoffs and lack of sellers at the trade deadline, we need mlb expansion. Also the gap between training at the highest levels is shrinking |
| 2:48 | : Yeah, I completely agree with this |
| 2:48 | : do you think the royals will ever be good enough to exploit the fact that they have a pennies on the dollar Bobby Witt Jr.? He’s so good but they’re so bad |
| 2:48 | : They’re just too bad |
| 2:49 | : Do you think there’s a chance Wyatt Langford gets called up in the next week or two? Could be a bench asset in the playoffs |
| 2:49 | : I do, and that feels wild |
| 2:49 | : but they’re clearly paving the path for it |
| 2:50 | : Stadium situation on the way to being settled. Do you think the next mlb expansion teams have a shot at winning early like vegas golden knights? |
| 2:50 | : It really depends on the way they set up the expansion draft |
| 2:50 | : my guess is that expansion teams are going to be just okay in baseball, organizations are just so big and dev time is so long compared to other sports |
| 2:51 | : but hockey is the closest to baseball in that sense so maybe! |
| 2:51 | : I just haven’t given much thought to it |
| 2:51 | : Just want to throw out that David Ross has several seasons with a wRC+ higher than Yainer’s this season so maybe we pump the breaks a little. |
| 2:51 | : Nope, let’s enshrine him now |
| 2:51 | : He takes a deal with an early opt out, right? Seems like he could sign for more after he comes back from TJS |
| 2:51 | : I mean, I wouldn’t |
| 2:52 | : there’s just not much difference between 400 million and 500 million to me |
| 2:52 | : Game clock has sped up games, does this mean we can revoke the 3 batter rule? |
| 2:52 | : I mean…. I don’t see why |
| 2:52 | : mid-inning pitching changes suck |
| 2:53 | : An argument against MLB expansion: isn’t talent already thin? There are already 4-5 teams that are jokes from day 1 of each season |
| 2:53 | : I think that has a lot to do with those teams not putting in a legit effort |
| 2:53 | : the amount of nasty relief arms is a big argument in favor of expansion to me |
| 2:54 | : Yesterday I discovered Cal Raleigh is 25th in WAR for position players, 3rd among catchers, and ahead of Adley. So I went back and checked and he wasn’t on the Trade Value list anywhere, even as an honorable mention! Is this just a hot streak? Or is the industry not as high on him? |
| 2:54 | : Little bit of both, little bit of me being too low, little bit of a distrust of catcher value that is so heavily reliant on framing |
| 2:55 | : let’s just say that I’m not short on Mariners fans who are taking a look at this list when I”m building it |
| 2:55 | : I think that his age also plays a role, but yeah, I’d have him on there if I did it again |
| 2:55 | : Jays, Rangers and Mariners would all prefer the Twins to the Rays/O’s, right? Would any NL WC team want to play the Phils over MIL? |
| 2:55 | : I mean, maybe the last day of the season? |
| 2:55 | : but it’s pretty important to actually make the playoffs |
| 2:56 | : Ohtani can’t get $400 million if he is just a DH, can he? |
| 2:56 | : If he were only ever going to DH again, no |
| 2:56 | : but presumably he’s planning on returning to two-way play after rehabbing from injury. I’m really curious to see what his market will be like and also terrified to project a contract for him |
| 2:56 | : Must be nice to be Ben Clemens rich.  |
| 2:56 | : I mean, contingent on you already having 400 million dollars, 100 million dollars is not much |
| 2:56 | : going from 0 to 100 million is obviously huge |
| 2:57 | : How do you think the free agent pitching market plays out? Ohtani’s not a big factor, Urias should be done, Nola has not been himself, and Snell’s peripherals are not close to his ERA. Feels like someone like Giolito is going to do much better than most people would expect just because of lack of supply. |
| 2:57 | : 100% agreed with this |
| 2:58 | : There are just a lot of teams that need starters every year |
| 2:58 | : The wild card races in both leagues are great. Who do have missing the cut? |
| 2:59 | : I guess I’ll go with SF/CIN/Miami on the NL side (really close for me, I wanted to put the Marlins in), and Texas on the AL side |
| 2:59 | : But this is pure guesswork, to be clear |
| 2:59 | : Help us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi, you’re our only hope! |
| 3:00 | : Gotta throw this one in because I’m rapidly nearing a conclusion to today’s chat, gotta go make lunch and then keep writing about Josh Hader |
| 3:00 | : How do guys like Ragans and Y. Diaz slip through the cracks? Im sure it happens all the time, Paredes is another example, but teams just throw in the towel too early? Or, are other teams just gambling and have the playing time available? I dont think anyone was stunned at the time of the trade by the packages. |
| 3:00 | : Yeah, I think it is just teams throwing in the towel too early, but also, we know that players sometimes take a long time to display their true talent. The odds of someone working out are lower if they have had a bad year or two, but not zero |
| 3:01 | : it’d be one thing if a team were systematically mis-evaluating these guys (cough Cardinals in the mid-2010’s cough), but I dunno, you’re gonna miss one or two here or there even if you’re doing everything right |
| 3:01 | : Are the Mariners in a position to offer a competitive deal to Ohtani? They look compelling from a talent standpoint(pitching depth + Julio) |
| 3:01 | : I think so. They’re my guess for where he ends up right now |
| 3:01 | : Thanks for doing these, as ever. So, Small sample size theater, etc. but how much stock can/should I put into Ronny Mauricio’s September and (as a learning/teachable moment) especially stuff like his Savant? What’s your feeling on him, Baty, the baby Mets, etc? |
| 3:02 | : I’m still high on Baty, maybe because I’ve let ZiPS talk me into it |
| 3:02 | : I think Alvarez is great, of course |
| 3:02 | : Mauricio? I mean…. I dunno, you can get as excited as you want. I’m not blown away, but it’s nice that he’s not falling on his face |
| 3:03 | : baseball talent worldwide is at all time highs. The gap between AAA, Korean, Japanese leagues and the majors is narrower than ever. The training techniques and technology that schools, minors, and private instruction have, plus all the videos and info online, make it easier than ever to get better |
| 3:03 | : Organizational roster shrinking is happening at a time when mlb rosters should be expanding. Concussion protocols, inning limits, and modern injury treatment almost requires 28 man rosters year round. |
| 3:03 | : I agree with both of these |
| 3:03 | : and on that note |
| 3:03 | : I gotta run and start heating lunch up |
| 3:03 | : have a great week everyone, and enjoy the playoff races |
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
