In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald will hold a Mariners-specific chat on 10-13-23 at 2:45 pm CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.

The American League featured seven good teams in 2023, but with only six playoff spots, one of them had to be heartbroken. In the end, it was the Mariners, who couldn’t get back to the postseason after breaking their drought the year before. The good news is that most of the roster is sticking around for another shot at it, with plenty of payroll space for offseason additions.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Julio Rodríguez, OF: $190MM through 2034 (can increase based on All-Star selections and awards voting; club has multi-year option after 2028, player has opt-out after 2029)
• Luis Castillo, RHP: $91MM through 2027 (includes conditional club/vesting option for 2028)
• Robbie Ray, LHP: $73MM through 2026 (includes opt-out after ’24)
• J.P. Crawford, SS: $31MM through 2026
• Evan White, 1B: $17MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option; club also has options for 27-28)
• Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $13MM through 2024 (includes buyout of ’25 club option)
• Marco Gonzales, LHP: $12MM through 2024 (club has ’25 option with no buyout)
• Dylan Moore, IF/OF: $6.625MM through 2025
• Andrés Muñoz, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025 (club has 26-28 options with no buyouts)

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $102.8MM
Total future commitments: $459.125MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Torrens, Thornton, Rojas

Free Agents

The Mariners broke a 20-year playoff drought in 2022, winning 90 games and getting a Wild Card spot. They ran it back with a fairly similar roster in 2023 but regressed slightly to 88 wins. That was enough for them to miss the playoffs by just one game, getting eliminated in the final weekend of the season.

The good news is that the many of the same ingredients will remain on the roster with a small number of departing free agents, putting them in good position to compete again in 2024. Their best asset in 2023 was run prevention, as only the Brewers and Padres allowed fewer than the 659 runs Seattle surrendered. They did that in spite of losing Robbie Ray to Tommy John surgery early in the season, with rookies stepping up to fill the void.

Ray is currently expected back around the All-Star break, but the rotation looks to be in good shape without him. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Marco Gonzales give the club seven viable rotation options. Gonzales was injured for much of 2023 but made 32 starts the year before with a 4.13 ERA. Each of Miller, Woo and Hancock debuted this year with solid results, all of them posting an earned run average between 4.20 and 4.50. They each have options and can be kept in the minors if the club wants to preserve depth and manage their innings.

It’s possible that there are enough arms here that the club considers trading from this pile for offense. But they were in a similar situation last year and ended up hanging onto all of their starters. Since pitching injuries are fairly inevitable and eventually came to pass for Ray and Gonzales, the club is probably glad they picked that path and may do so again. But if they take a different tack this time, they would surely find plenty of interest. The Cardinals are just one of many clubs looking for starting pitching and have already been connected to Gilbert, but it’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in such a path.

In the bullpen, despite recent trades of Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald, there are still plenty of excellent pieces in place. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa each posted an ERA of 3.06 or lower this year, with solid contributions from Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others as well. The aforementioned trades of Swanson and Sewald show the club is not afraid of dealing from the bullpen to address other areas, but the midseason Sewald deal may have rubbed some the wrong way. Since that has echoes of the Kendall Graveman trade of years past, perhaps the club will opt for holding onto their relievers for now.

Whether it’s through trade or free agency, adding thump to the lineup figures to be a priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander this winter. Their 758 runs scored in 2023 was 12th in the majors, behind most other postseason clubs. Part of that is due to their pitching-friendly home ballpark but wRC+, which controls for such things, had them ninth. Teoscar Hernández had a down year relative to his own standards but his departure for free agency nonetheless increases the challenge of upgrading the offense.

The catcher position won’t be a high priority, as Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the best power-hitting backstops in the league. Tom Murphy reaching free agency creates a bit of a hole at the backup spot, with Luis Torrens and Brian O’Keefe on hand to replace him. Bringing back Murphy or another veteran could be on the to-do list, though that’s likely not going to be where the club prioritizes adding offense. Even glove-first options like Luke Maile or Austin Hedges would be fine here.

On the infield, J.P. Crawford took a big step forward at shortstop but second base was a black hole. The club’s flier on Kolten Wong was disastrous, as he hit just .165/.241/.227 for the M’s. He got released and the club rotated Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and José Caballero through the spot down the stretch. This is one clear spot where the club could look for upgrades but the free agent class isn’t strong, with Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier the headliners. None of those guys are likely to replace the production of the departing Hernandez but it would be hard for them to be worse than Wong. The trade market could offer Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan, though it’s unclear how willing their respective clubs would be to make them available in offseason talks.

At the corners, Eugenio Suárez had a bit of a down year but it doesn’t seem to be too much cause for concern. His batting average and on-base percentage were close to his numbers from the year before, but his homers dropped from 31 to 22, which pushed his wRC+ down from 130 to 102. His hard hit rates were very similar from year to year yet his rate of fly balls leaving the yard dropped from 19.3% to 12.9%. Since he’s still under contract, it seems fair to expect the M’s will keep him at the hot corner and hope for better luck next year.

It’s a similar story at the other corner, with Ty France also experiencing a power dip as his hard hit rate and exit velocity stayed fairly steady. He hit just 12 home runs in 2023 after launching 20 the year before, causing his wRC+ to drop from 125 to 104. He’ll be due a raise to $7.2MM via arbitration, which will be good value if his luck turns next year. Mike Ford struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances but also popped 16 homers in just 251 plate appearances. He’ll be due an arbitration raise but to barely above the league minimum, which should prompt the M’s to keep him around at least as a bench bat.

In the outfield, Julio Rodríguez is the anchor up the middle but both corners are now question marks. In left field, Jarred Kelenic was above-average overall but struck out in 31.7% of his plate appearances. Cade Marlowe had similar results in a small sample size. Dominic Canzone crushed a few balls but had an OBP of .258 thanks to a low walk rate and BABIP.

Kelenic probably did enough to earn a job next year, but Hernández will need to be replaced, meaning the club should add at least one corner outfielder. Hernández himself is the top of the class, but it’s possible the M’s let him walk in order to collect a draft pick after he rejects a qualifying offer. He’s coming off a down year and could consider accepting, but it’s a weak group of free agent hitters overall, which should nudge him towards the open market. Beyond him, the best options are players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, with Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler perhaps opting out of their deals. Any of those would be a good fit in Seattle, though it’s debatable whether any of them are clear upgrades over Hernández.

There’s also Cody Bellinger, who is the clear top outfield option overall. He won’t supplant Rodríguez in center but the M’s could theoretically sign him and move him to a corner spot. But since his ability to play above-average defense in center is part of his appeal, they could be outbid by a team with a cleaner roster fit.

Of course, the best way for the club to upgrade their lineup would be to sign Shohei Ohtani, though it’s tough to say how likely that is. Even though he won’t pitch in 2024, he figures to get a record-setting contract based on his elite hitting and the potential of returning to the mound in 2025. The Mariners have been seen as a potential Ohtani landing spot, given his supposed preference for a West Coast team and to play for a contender.

The Mariners fit on both counts and also have arguably the strongest legacy of using Japanese players. A lot of that is due to the legendary status of Ichiro Suzuki, but they have also had Yusei Kikuchi, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Nori Aoki, Hisashi Iwakuma and many others on their roster at various times throughout the years. That could have some degree of importance to Ohtani, but it would likely be supplementary to the primary concerns of the financials and the winning culture.

Speaking of the money, the Mariners are in a decent place there with barely over $100MM committed for 2024. That doesn’t include the arbitration class, but that only projects to add about $15-20MM, depending on who is tendered a contract. They had an Opening Day payroll over $137MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but were in the $150-160MM range prior to the pandemic. It seems fair to assume they would happily spend at that level again if it meant bringing Ohtani aboard, considering both his talents and the international marketing opportunities.

But they certainly won’t be the only team with a strong willingness to fit Ohtani onto the roster. The Dodgers can market themselves with a greater track record of winning than the Mariners, and also have higher spending capacity. Other clubs like the Giants, Angels, Rangers and Mets could all be argued to be sensible fits as well.

It’s possible that the offseason of the Mariners, and maybe the entire league, will start out slowly as the Ohtani situation plays out. There are many clubs that will have Ohtani as Plan A and everything else as Plan B. This applies to the Mariners perhaps as much as any other club.

That leaves open two distinct forks in the road ahead. On one path, the Mariners get Ohtani, who immediately gives them the lineup upgrade they need and creates a positive energy around the future of the club. Or they don’t get Ohtani and are looking to spread their money around to some combination of Bellinger, Hernández, Merrifield, Gurriel, Conforto, Frazier, Torres or Soler. One path is obviously more exciting than the other, but both should lead the club to a good place next year. Competing with the Astros and Rangers won’t be easy, but everything is in place for another three-team showdown in the West next year.