Are the Rays a small market team? What makes a team a small or large market team? I could not find a direct answer. During my research I found several lists that did not match. So, which one is accurate? As a baseball fan, I have heard arguments that large markets have an advantage over the small market teams. But how? What advantage do they have? With no straight answer found, my estimation is that markets are determine by multiple factors. Let us see where the Rays fall in these lists.
One factor to analyze is the actual market size. In this test, market size is defined as the size of the city and population. A list created by CBSsports.com places, ranks Tampa/St Peterburg at 13 of 30 MLB teams. Theoretically, this makes the Rays a medium market team. This also proves that teams that represent more than one location do not hold an advantage over single locations: like the Rays. This theory is disproven by the Washington DC Nationals who are ranked eighth on this list. Washington DC is a compacted area with a large population. To create more confusion, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago are ranked one, two, and three on this list. Each of these cities are split by claiming ownership of two teams.
Another element that can be used to verify which market the Rays fall into is television viewership. This major source of revenue is determined by Nielson ratings. Sports Media Watch ranked 115 US-based cities tracking viewership of MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, and NCAA. The Tampa/St Petersburg area was ranked 12. In this case, the Rays would be considered a large market team for surpassing 103 other sports markets. In addition, the Tampa/St Petersburg area is ranked higher than the city of Detroit, Minneapolis-St Paul, and Denver. Each of those cities televise games for teams in all five leagues whereas Tampa/St Petersburg does not have an NBA team.
The number one source of revenue is ticket sales. Attendance drives other numbers like concession and merchandise sales. According to Baseball-Reference, the Rays were 27th in attendance (1,440,301) in the 2023 season. In this respect, the Rays are, without a doubt, a small market team. The average game attendance was 17,781. These are awful numbers. The Rays drew higher attendance compared to only the Royals, Marlins, and Athletics. But why? The Rays had a 99-win season. Only the Braves, Orioles, and Dodgers had more wins than the Rays. Does attendance determine what market a team is categorized into?
An alternative method of ranking teams is by payroll. This normally is a firm concept when involved in an argument about what market teams fall into. Last season the Rays were ranked 27th in payroll at $75.4 million. Only the Pirates, Guardians, and Athletics have a smaller payroll. As of this writing, the 2024 Rays are ranked 25th in payroll with $86.9 million. The average total team payroll across MLB in 2024 is $147.2 million. The Rays are far below average in payroll. A larger payroll does not translate to wins. The Red Sox have the 11th highest payroll in the league which is $100 million more than the Rays. The Red Sox finished last in their division in 2023. The Padres did not make the playoffs in 2023 with their $236 million payroll which was three times what the Rays pay. In this case, being a small market is acceptable.
There is no clear definition of a large or small market team. A ranking system could be used to define aspects of success in specific topics. It also could overlook another. Attendance, TV viewership, payroll, and the size of the city paint a broad picture. Team success on the field plays a significant role too. If a large market team fails to make the playoffs, it does not make them a small market team. If a small market team wins the World Series, does it make them a large market team? Ask the Texas Rangers. So, yes, the Rays are a small market team. But does it matter if they win?
