Chapman or Belli. Who is the better fit for Seattle?  

Recent reports have flown around on the internet in recent days that the Seattle Mariners are considering going after Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. As Spring has arrived, the prices or length of contracts might have dropped, to make the two players more of an ability to sign for the Mariners. That brings a question, who would fit better for the Mariners? Bellinger or Chapman?   

Inhouse options:  

Outfield:  

To see who can be helpful, you start looking at the need. Right now, the outfield consists of one of the better center fielders in the game in Julio Rodriguez, who won’t move in place of Bellinger, newly acquired Mitch Haniger, left fielder Dominic Canzone and probable bench players in Sam Haggerty and Luke Raley.  

While it is clear that Bellinger won’t be the center fielder in this case, he could join the outfield in left field to replace Canzone? So, let’s compare the two.  

Canzone collected –0.1 bWar over 59 games between Arizona and Seattle with an 81 OPS+. Obviously, those numbers won’t wow anyone, so let’s dig in deeper.  

If you look at Canzone, his baseball savant percentiles, it’s a lot better. While the sample size is pretty small, he has some promising percentile numbers:  

According to his Baseball Savant page, he was expected to have a .776 OPS, instead of a .657. That’s a huge gap. While we do have to take into account his home ballpark in Seattle is a difficult ballpark to hit. However, there is every reason to project a far better year for the just 26-year-old Canzone. It’s also worth noting that Canzone had a great minor league career, hitting .310/.377/.556, so the promise is definitely there.   

A negative for Canzone are his options. If you get Bellinger, you don’t lose Canzone.   

And then there is newly acquired Luke Raley, who is coming of a great year in 2023. Over 119 games, Raley had a .823 OPS, better than Canzone his expected numbers. While there is some reason for expecting a decline, as seen on his savant numbers, it’s still another left-handed option for the Mariners to go to. Raley is more of a power bat with high strikeout numbers, while Canzone puts the ball in play. The Depth Chart has Canzone as the left fielder right now, but that can change during spring. In the end, there are already two left-handed OF options to fill the spot.  

Third Base:  

For Matt Chapman, it’s clearer who is the option for the everyday job. It’s Luis Urias. The still just 26-year-old third baseman is coming off a down year between the Brewers and Mariners in 2023. Over 63 games, he had a 76 OPS+. And his percentiles didn’t look better on baseball savant. Besides his ability to walk and not chase, the most we see is blue, which is bad.   

However, over the two-year span from 2021-2023, he was a solid player with a .766 OPS, combining 39 home runs over 269 games, with a solid walk rate.   

So, if you look at those two years, you see a solid third baseman. The question is how close can he get to those numbers?   

A big plus for Chapman is defense, so it’s fair to mention that part of Urias’ game. Urias over his career has moved around, but overall, at third, he has been so-so. Last year he had a bad overall Outs Above Average, but his play at third was solid at plus 2. However, over his career he has an even 0 at third base.  

To compare the in-house options, I personally have more faith in a break-out year for Canzone than I have in a bounce back for Urias.   

Comparing Bellinger to Chapman:  

It’s obvious who had the better year offensively in 2023. If you compare Bellinger with his .881 OPS and Chapman his .755 OPS it’s clear Bellinger has the edge. However, in bWar, they were tied at 4.4, which shows how good Chapman his defense was yet again.   

But are Bellinger down years (where he was one of the worst players in the game) behind him? Or does the consistency of Chapman get the edge?  

Another look at Baseball Savant to me shows some red flags for Bellinger. As his production went up, he is still below average in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and average exit velo. Which was a major sign when he struggled at the plate.   

A good sign for Bellinger is his pitch recognition. He went from a below average hitter vs off-speed and breaking balls to an above average hitter against those pitches. He decreased his whiff rate vs off-speed pitches by 10 percent, which shows his ability to recognize the pitches better.   

Is it time to forget the past and look at this renewed Bellinger as a solid above average hitter? Personally, I need to see that for at least one more year, to buy that.   

And then there is Matt Chapman. A gold glove caliber third baseman, who took a step down in defense from elite to above average over the last two seasons, according to OAA. Obviously, that is still an improvement over what the Mariners have.   

While Chapman’s offense was down (in comparison to Bellinger great year), I didn’t see a lot of alarming signs in his numbers. Yes, the home runs were down, but looking at his hard-hit rates, it’s still elite. Main issue with Chapman is strikeouts as over his career, he has an issue with the strikeout. And with his slugging percentage declining, it’s more of an issue than it was when he had one of the better slugging percentages in 2021.   

But as Chapman hasn’t decreased his level of contact, I see a big year coming for the still just 30-year-old (young for a free agent) former first rounder. He was in the 100^th percentile in hard hit rate. So, when he makes contact, it’s great contact. And with still a solid walk rate, he is still a top third baseman in the game in my opinion.  

Conclusion:  

To me (not considering the contract) Chapman is the better fit. Not only because of the in-house options I like better, but also see Chapman as a better bet for a great 2024. I still have some doubts if Bellinger, his 2023, is the future Bellinger. With Chapman, you know what he can do for you.   

So, my pick: Matt Chapman.