The New York Yankees are in the smiles and sunshine phase of Spring Training. Nothing this side of Juan Soto making his Yankees pinstripe game debut may be as exciting as the new Giancarlo Stanton and the hope of his return as a key piece in the Yankees lineup.
Stanton diligently working to ensure he is giving himself and the Yankees the best long-term performance on his remaining years of his contract by stepping into a baseball time machine to rewind his physique to the young player once known as Mike Stanton.
The young Giancarlo “looked” like a baseball player, long, lean, athletic, and fast. At only 20 years, 212 days, Stanton made his Major League Debut for the Marlins in 2010. Stanton managed to hit 22 home runs as a rookie in only 396 plate appearances as a rookie. Even with these amazing numbers he did not receive a single Rookie of the Year vote in the National League. The 20-year-old Stanton and the 33-year-old muscled specimen wrapped in glass performed remarkably alike in a cursory look.
In roughly the same at-bats the 2010 numbers of 22 HR and 59 RBI are like his 2023 of 24 HR and 60 RBI. But of course, there is another look pointing to what possibly could be expected with Stanton’s hard work to become a “baseball player again.” The leaner, younger Stanton played 65 more games in the outfield with 98 games, batted only .259 but that was 69 points better than the abysmal .191 of 2023. The 2010 model also outpaced in OBP by 51 points, 87 points in OPS, 26 more Total Bases with 82, and a difference of +138 on OPS, and +31 on OPS+.
Whether it is the eye test of the 2023 fragile Stanton gingerly, and painfully slowly “running the bases,” or the numbers compiled of Offensive Wins Above Replacement value of -0.5. combined with the -1.0 Defensive WAR, it was an insult to the memory of the player he once was. To Stanton’s credit, as opposed to the Yankees villains of Jacoby Ellsbury, and Aaron Hicks, he appears to be doing something with his actions and efforts to return to be a productive player with the team.
The Yankees and Stanton have not disclosed how much weight Stanton lost during the offseason, but the appearance is drastic. The Yankees Twin Towers of Judge and Stanton are now just similar in height. Stanton looks more like the 1970’s and 1980’s 6’6”, 210lb slugger Dave Kingman. But don’t forget the Kingman led the National League in home runs when he was 33, and a couple of years later he was able to slug 35 home runs and drive in 118. Kingman wrapped up his career at 37 years old with a fine season of 35 home runs and 94 RBI. Who wouldn’t love to see those numbers going forward for Stanton?
Stanton’s 13-year $325 million contract ends after the 2027 season when Stanton is 37. There is a 2028 team option. Kingman hit 30 or more home runs each of his last 3 seasons and had 113 home runs during his last four seasons. If the leaner, perhaps healthier Stanton could match those numbers he would finish his contract at 515 home runs, just ahead of the 511 of Mel Ott and Miguel Cabrera and the 512 of Eddie Matthews, and Ernie Banks. All four of those players are in the Baseball Hall of Fame or will be shortly. Que the Stanton Hall of Fame argument now.
Some random thoughts:
Dave Kingman did not receive viable Hall of Fame support with his only year on the ballot in 1992 accruing only 0.7 of the votes. Would Stanton receive strong consideration without the milestone number of 500 home runs?
Aaron Judge will turn 32 this season, at 257 home runs over his first 8 seasons, will he average 30 or more home runs over his next 8 seasons to put him at 500 home runs at 40 years old? Or will Aaron Judge, with his admitted going forward in his career big toe issue be more like the great Dale Murphy and 398 home runs? Murphy had 51 more home runs than Judge going into his 33-year-old season and could only hit 88 more. Will Aaron Judge be a Hall-of-Famer if he does not surpass 500 home runs? Dale Murphy was a back-to-back National League MVP but topped out at 23.2 percent in the voting. As great as Judge is, do you think he is better than Dale Murphy was?
DYK—Dave Kingman has a World Series ring from the 1977 Yankees. Kingman had 4 home runs and 7 RBI in his 8 Yankees games but were huge in helping the Yankees to secure their postseason spot enroute to their first World Series Championship since 1962 to end a 15-year Championship drought.
DYK—If the Yankees won the 2024 World Series it would match the 15-year drought ended by the 1977 Yankees.
