The Mets took a chance this offseason with the addition of Luis Severino, who was coming off a year he was arguably the worst pitchers in the game. The Mets hoped for a rebound and being able to fix Severino his issues. Mainly, tipping his pitches.
Main issue with Severino in 2023 was the sudden success hitters had against Severino his Fastball. Once an elite pitch, with high velo, was now a extremely hittable pitch which was hurting Severino. The Fastball still had elite velocity, so maybe hitters were able to sit on it?
In 2023, Severino’s 4 Seam Fastball collected a negative Run Value of minus 14. It was the ninth worst 4 Seam Fastball in the game. The slash line against the 4 Seam Fastball was .355/.462/.692 and the expected slash line wasn’t much better at .311/.407/.587. It was a monumental change as Severino had a positive 33 run value combined in his career.
So, how is the 4 Seam Fastball this season? Well, good for Mets fans, it’s a lot better. So far he has a positive run value of plus 2 and about his 2017-2022 norm in Run Value in 100 pitches thrown. A great sign that the 4 Seamer is back!
The slash line against the 4 Seamer so far is .222/.256/.267. That’s a very good slash line against a pitch Severino throws 42.7% of the time. His expected slash is a little worse but still very good at .257/.287/.324. The Fastball gets more swing and miss and a lot better contact for Sevy!
It’s a huge plus for Severino and a big part of his game. We saw in 2023, if he doesn’t have success with the Fastball, he isn’t good. When he does, he has been a very good starting pitcher.
