When the Mets finish a home series with Arizona on June 2nd, they will have played 59 games (36%) – more than a third of their season. In that 22-game stretch after last night’s game vs. Atlanta, the Mets will play home to the Phillies, Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks, and away at Philadelphia, Florida, and Cleveland. That includes back-to-back home and away two-game series with the Phils, which is not an ordinary thing.
Christian Scott is set to make his home Mets debut today after a stellar first start. It will be interesting to compare his performance to that of Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who will make his first MLB start in Pittsburgh vs. the Cubs at the same time. If Scott turns out to be a bona fide stud in the Mets rotation, with the return of Kodai Senga near, the Met’s starting rotation is much more formidable. This is without adding in David Peterson and Tylor Megill both of whom have been starters in the past. The emergence of Jose Butto, who’s for the moment not in danger of losing his spot, per Carlos Mendoza, has also deepened the Mets pitching options.
Reed Garrett has been a revelation. He’s also pitched a lot of innings early in this season and his workload cannot continue at the same pace as the most MLB innings he’s pitched was the 19 2/3 he pitched in 2023. He’s at 19 IP already this season. Moving Megill and Peterson into what already a strong bullpen forces the Mets to make some hard but good-to-have choices on who to keep around. Adrian Houser was moved to the bullpen after last weekend’s poor start.
Just because the offense has been spotty this season, there’s no reason to ignore that the Mets have an upside given the depth of the pitching staff. That’s not something many felt would be the case prior to this season. The bullpen has substantially outperformed its preseason expectations and with reinforcements on the horizon including the return of Brooks Raley, the Mets need Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil to make their recent signs of life fully bloom.
If the Mets play .500 ball for the next 22 games, they won’t be gaining ground on the Braves, Phillies, or any of the other wild card contenders. A 30-29 record on June 2nd would require the Mets to go 60-43 the rest of the way to win 90 games. Something short of that still might be good enough for a wild card, but being around .500 after 59 games, well like Bill Parcells used to say when coaching the New York Giants, ‘You are what your record says you are’. Even with Francisco Alvarez returning by late June might not be enough to shake the Mets from their win-a-few, lose-a-few tendencies. The next 22 games could set the Mets up for a successful season. We’ll know more soon enough.
