The Mets struggled to a 20-24 record in the early season and while some games have been played poorly, the Mets also have some losses due to some bad calls and unlucky results. Remember the loss to the Cubs with the play at the plate? The bad call on Merrifield his check swing on Monday’s loss to the Phillies? Both huge calls that could (or maybe evenshould) go either way and could have provided a different outcome.
But the calls on the field are never only against a team, so most likely the Mets have benefited from some calls the other way around. Still, it doesn’t necessarily feel that way as Mets fans.
But blaming the Mets struggles on the umpires is a stretch. Still, there is reason for some optimism amongst Mets fans. One, the standings. At the moment I write this, the Mets are behind by 1.5 games and leading the Marlins on Saturday. Another reason to be optimistic? Some players have had bad starts to the year (or at least under their norm), with their expected numbers showing different results. In the end, the Mets should expect more out of Lindor, Alonso and Martinez and it’s time they perform like the back of their baseball cards.
Francisco Lindor:
The player who gets the most negative attention is Fransisco Lindor. Lindor is hitting .192/.268/.356 over the first couple of months, way worse than his career norm at .271/.339/.469. However, if you look at Lindor expected numbers, there is reason to expect better for the 30-year-old shortstop.
Lindor’s expected slash line stands at .270/.346/.465, which is awfully close to his career norm. All those numbers are in the 72nd percentile or higher. Showing, so far according to the contact he makes, he has been an above average hitter. Unfortunately, the results have shown otherwise.
Lindor’s hard-hit rate is slightly below last season at 43.2 percent. The only big difference in his contact is his sweet spot percentage is down. However, Lindor has improved his strikeout rate by 4.5%. So, while his average exit velo and Barrel % are a little below his rates last year, he is getting the ball in play more often.
To me these numbers show Lindor will be fine and should be getting closer to his 2023 production. In 2023, Lindor had an .806 OPS with tremendous defense at short. And with the Defense still solid, I expect Lindor to end up with yet another good year.
Pete Alonso:
Another hitter who, so far, lost a little bit of his major production tool (power). Alonso’s slugging percentage so far is .459, which is 64 points below his career norm at .523. In his contract year, Alonso isn’t looking for a down year, which might add some pressure.
Still, Alonso has a track record of going through major slumps, this year it was just a very early major slump. To me that provides some uneven numbers for the Polar Bear. He has a career low Slugging percentage and Expected Slugging percentage (.473). His hard-hit-rate and average exit velo are way down, as he is a below average hitter in that regard. When Pete gets hot, I am certain that it won’t sustain.
After his major slump, we have seen some positives over the last week. Pete is hitting .310/.355/.517 over his last seven games. Time for Pete to truly break out and get that vintage hot streak going. If Pete goes, the Mets go.
J.D. Martinez:
We can’t say that J.D. Martinez is having a bad year so far. A .306/.351/.444 slash line is good for a .795 OPS. However, the slugging percentage has been lacking for a hitter you get for his power. Concerning? I would say no.
We have to take into account that J.D. Martinez didn’t have true Spring Training. He got signed late and got hurt soon after ramping it up. So, logically his power might turn up a little later in the colder April/May weather in some ballparks. Still, if you look at the contact, Martinez hit better than his slash line indicates. His expected slash line stands at .283/.359/.492, good for a .851 expected OPS.
Just like with Lindor, that’s fairly close to his career norm. So, while his overall slugging is down, I expect it to pick up rather soon.
It’s hard to win if your three big guys aren’t producing like they should, especially considering there are some players who are underperforming in regards of McNeil, Marte, Baty and missing Alvarez at the catcher’s spot, which is a huge black hole in the lineup now with Narvaez and Nido.
However, with the contact rates and back of the players baseball cards, it should get a lot better Mets fans. Don’t give up on this team!
