The second full month of baseball is in the books. The Rays’ record this season has been bobbing at the 500 line like a float on a fishing line in the Gulf of Mexico. The month of May solidified the team’s unwanted mediocrity. They are not alone. Rivals Red Sox and Blue Jays join the Rays with their own struggles of underperforming stars.
The only way to identify improvement is by measuring it. Are the Rays improving? The answer is yes and no. I analyzed the month of May’s numbers. In the 27 games played, the Rays had a record of 14-13. That is a 51-winning percent. It is always better to win more than you lose. There is nothing special about a 51% winning percentage. It truly is the minimum on the winning side. It is a significant improvement compared to the 48% winning percentage for the current season. It is showing promise.
In the 27 games the Rays were streaky. They had a five-game and a four-game winning streaks. Rays’ fans enjoyed the five-game winning streak victimizing the New York Mets and Chicago White Sox in their home ballpark. The four-game winning streak took place on the road. The streak was split into two wins in Boston and Toronto. However, the high note did not last long. A six-game losing streak flooded away any memories of these wins. The dreaded Red Sox took revenge and swept a three-game set at the Trop.
The tale of mediocrity continues. MLB.com reports the team is 17-18 at home at this point. Overall, in the month of May the Rays scored 79 runs and allowed 46, averaging 5.6 runs per game and allowing 3.3 runs per game. That is a +33-run differential. In May the team was 9-9 at home.
In the nine home wins, the Rays scored 54 runs with an average of six runs per game. The team allowed 29 runs per game with an average of 3.2 runs per game. With a run differential of +25. Seven of the nine opponents had losing records, those teams were the Mets, and White Sox.
Switch the numbers around for the nine losses at home. The Rays scored 19 runs versus the 60 they allowed. Losses are inevitable when averaging 2.1 runs and giving up six runs. Posting a run differential of -41 in nine losses is deflating. At home, the team posted a -16-run differential for home games in May.
The Rays are 12-13 in road games. In May the Rays were 5-4. Slight improvement. The Rays do not score as much on the road as they do at their home ballpark. In the five wins on the road the team scored 25 runs while giving up 17. In the wins, the Rays averaged five runs scored and opponents 3.4 with a +8-run differential.
When the Rays lose, they lose badly. In the four road losses the Rays scored only eight runs. The average runs scored ratio were dramatically lopsided in favor of their opponents. The Rays averaged two runs per game but allowed five runs.
Currently, the Rays have scored 234 runs and allowed 287 creating a -53-run differential. Those numbers translate into 3.9 runs scored and 4.7 runs allowed per game. In May the team averaged 3.9 runs per game and allowed 4.1 runs per game. The Rays are scoring the same number of runs but are allowing more. The run differential for the season is -53 which is -0.8 per game. Statistically speaking when the game starts the Rays are down one nothing.
