One of the Cubs’ first decisions of the upcoming offseason is whether to exercise an option on the team’s longest-tenured player. Chicago holds a $16MM option on Kyle Hendricks that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.
At the very least, the team is likely to retain the right-hander on that net $14.5MM decision. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the front office and Hendricks’ representatives at Wasserman are discussing a potential multi-year pact to keep him in Chicago beyond next season. It isn’t clear how likely they are to come to an agreement.
That the Cubs are open to retaining Hendricks into 2025 isn’t especially surprising. He put together a strong ’23 campaign, turning in a 3.74 ERA through 137 innings. It was a nice return to form after he’d allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both 2021 and ’22. The sinkerballer kept the ball on the ground at a 46.3% clip that was his highest rate since 2020. Hendricks also cut his walk rate a couple percentage points relative to the previous two seasons while inducing more soft contact.
It’s not a return to peak, when he was routinely logging 30+ starts with an ERA hovering around 3.00. He halted what looked like a possible decline, though, perhaps in part due to improved health. Hendricks had pitched through shoulder discomfort for part of the 2022 season. He was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear and shut down that August. Hendricks never required surgery but was forced out of game action until late May.
Upon his return, he stayed healthy and took the ball every fifth day. The steady mid-rotation production was welcome for a team that lost Marcus Stroman to the injured list around the trade deadline and received middling seasons from Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Aside from Cy Young candidate Justin Steele, Hendricks was arguably the team’s best starter.
The Dartmouth product turns 34 in December. An extension going into effect beyond next season would therefore begin with his age-35 campaign. That’s the age at which the Cardinals’ spring extension for Miles Mikolas takes effect. St. Louis guaranteed Mikolas $40MM over two seasons one year in advance.
Hendricks and Mikolas are broadly similar pitchers. They’re innings-eating righties whose profiles are built on elite control. As with Hendricks, Mikolas had dealt with a serious injury before posting a rebound year — in his case, soreness in a surgically repaired flexor tendon in his forearm. While Mikolas throws quite a bit harder, that has never translated to an even average whiff rate. The Cardinals hurler’s $20MM average annual value might be a touch high. Mikolas was coming off a 3.29 ERA through 202 1/3 innings in 2022, a half-run lower than Hendricks’ 2023 figure. It’s nevertheless a potential target for Hendricks’ camp.
José Quintana — a former teammate of both Hendricks and Mikolas — signed a two-year, $26MM free agent deal covering his age 34-35 seasons. Quintana had turned in a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings in his platform season after a dismal 6.43 ERA showing in 2021. Even without the benefit of open market bidding, Hendricks figures to top that sum based on Quintana’s erratic performances from 2019-21.
The Cubs have just over $100MM on the books for the 2025 season. That’s mostly tied up in position players, with only Taillon on a guaranteed deal beyond next year. Steele remains eligible for arbitration through 2027, while Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad are in their pre-arbitration seasons. Stroman has a $21MM player option for next year that looks like a borderline call; he’d be a free agent after 2024 if he opts in. Smyly is virtually certain to exercise an $8.5MM player option for next season that’d also guarantee a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual provision.
