The offseason will get underway no later than this weekend. While the first few days will be defined by option decisions and qualifying offers, the focus turns to arbitration-eligible players shortly thereafter.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for that group. Those figures are not locked in, with teams free to decline to tender contracts to anyone on their 40-man roster who isn’t already on a guaranteed deal. A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without exposing them to waivers. This offseason’s non-tender deadline is Friday, November 17.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary by that date. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money within the next couple weeks. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below the projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing, which typically runs from mid-February into the beginning of March.

With the non-tender deadline a couple weeks away, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.

At least a few of these players will likely be traded within the first couple weeks of the offseason, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Kevin Newman were all traded in deals of this ilk last fall.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

• Christian Bethancourt (Rays), $2.3MM
• Cam Gallagher (Guardians), $1.3MM
• Kyle Higashioka (Yankees), $2.3MM
• Carson Kelly (Tigers), $3.5MM team option*
• Andrew Knizner (Cardinals), $2MM
• Reese McGuire (Red Sox), $1.7MM
• Austin Nola (Padres), $2.35MM
• Jacob Stallings (Marlins), $3.6MM
• Garrett Stubbs (Phillies), $900K
• Jose Trevino (Yankees), $2.7MM

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

• Miguel Andujar (Pirates), $2.2MM
• Akil Baddoo (Tigers), $1.7MM
• Jake Bauers (Yankees), $1.7MM
• Seth Brown (Athletics), $2.4MM
• Jake Cave (Phillies), $1.4MM
• Franchy Cordero (Yankees), $1.6MM
• Clint Frazier (White Sox), $900K
• Connor Joe (Pirates), $2MM
• Ramon Laureano (Guardians), $4.7MM
• Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks), $1.61MM
• Tim Locastro (Mets), $1.6MM
• Ryan McKenna (Orioles), $740K
• Billy McKinney (Yankees), $1.2MM
• Austin Meadows (Tigers), $4.3MM
• Raimel Tapia (Rays), $2.4MM

Designated Hitter

Starting Pitchers

• Kolby Allard (Braves), $1MM
• Domingo German (Yankees), $4.4MM
• Elieser Hernandez (Mets), $1.6MM
• Dakota Hudson (Cardinals), $3.7MM
• Cole Irvin (Orioles), $1.8MM
• Peter Lambert (Rockies), $1.2MM
• Michael Soroka (Braves), $3MM
• Jose Suarez (Angels), $1.1MM
• Touki Toussaint (White Sox), $1.7MM
• Spencer Turnbull (Tigers), $2.4MM
• Jake Woodford (Cardinals), $1.1MM
• Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), $11.6MM
• Huascar Ynoa (Braves), $1MM

Right-Handed Relievers

• Albert Abreu (Yankees), $900K
• Austin Adams (Diamondbacks), $1.1MM
• Jorge Alcala (Twins), $1MM
• Yency Almonte (Dodgers), $1.9MM
• Matt Bowman (Yankees), $1MM
• Jeff Brigham (Mets), $1.1MM
• Nick Burdi (Cubs), $800K
• Matt Bush (Rangers), $2.1MM
• JT Chargois (Marlins), $1.2MM
• Yonny Chirinos (Braves), $2MM
• Adam Cimber (Blue Jays), $3.2MM
• Taylor Clarke (Royals), $2.2MM
• Sam Coonrod (Mets), $900K
• Jimmy Cordero (Yankees), $900K
• Dylan Covey (Phillies), $1MM
• John Curtiss (Mets), $1MM
• J.P. Feyereisen (Dodgers), $1MM
• Matt Foster (White Sox), $740K
• Trevor Gott (Mets), $2MM
• Ben Heller (Braves), $900K
• Jonathan Hernandez (Rangers), $1.3MM
• Codi Heuer (Cubs), $785K
• James Karinchak (Guardians), $1.9MM
• Derek Law (Reds), $1.4MM
• Trevor Richards (Blue Jays), $2.4MM
• Drew Smith (Mets), $2.3MM
• Josh Staumont (Royals), $1.2MM
• Cole Sulser (Rays), $900K
• Dillon Tate (Orioles), $1.5MM
• Trent Thornton (Mariners), $1.4MM
• Michael Tonkin (Braves), $1MM
• Lou Trivino (Yankees), $4.1MM
• Jacob Webb (Orioles), $1.2MM
• Ryan Weber (Yankees), $900K

Left-Handed Relievers

• Keegan Akin (Orioles), $800K
• Tyler Alexander (Tigers), $2MM
• Jalen Beeks (Rays), $1.8MM
• Josh Fleming (Rays), $1MM
• Tim Hill (Padres), $2.4MM
• Joe Mantiply (Diamondbacks), $1MM
• Brett Martin (Rangers), $1.28MM
• Adrian Morejon (Padres), $900K
• Sean Newcomb (Athletics), $1MM
• Jose Quijada (Angels), $1MM
• Josh Taylor (Royals), $1.3MM
• Ryan Yarbrough (Dodgers), $3.8MM

* Kelly’s projected arbitration salary exceeds the option price