| 2:00 | : Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Let’s get going, because I’m going to have to head out at noon to get a few things done |
| 2:01 | : I’m working on an updated Apple TV odds article that should be going up soon, but it’s a lot of charting and stuff so I’m pretty crunched for time today |
| 2:01 | : Do you think PED suspensions need to be raised if star players like Tatis, Grandal, Nelson Cruz are still getting suspended for PEDS? |
| 2:01 | : Hm, I don’t think so, I think ‘rare but not never’ is a really good frequency for these suspensions |
| 2:01 | : These aren’t questions to which I expect an answer, they’re a howl of anguish into the pitiless void.What do we do in San Diego? Hope Seidler’s pockets truly are bottomless? How is a team with THAT payroll so woefully thin? |
| 2:01 | : A lot of it has to do with the team prioritizing trading depth in seemingly every deal for the last five years |
| 2:01 | : six random dudes for Austin Nola? done |
| 2:01 | : that kinda thing |
| 2:02 | : but yeah, I think you hope that everyone stays healthy and that Seidler wants to keep going, which seems very reasonable (more reasonable than the health for sure) |
| 2:02 | : As I remember things the Yankees tried Michael King in the rotation after acquiring him many moons ago, a run that didn’t work out. Now that he’s getting another shot in the rotation there seems to be unreasonable hope that he’s now a legitimate rotation weapon. Is this experiment destined for failure too, and if not why not? |
| 2:02 | : I’ll defer to Esteban Rivera on this one |
| 2:02 | : Any thoughts on DJ Stewart? I’m curious if you think he’s a legitimately productive batter moving forward. Thanks! |
| 2:02 | : I’m not really a believer, let’s just say |
| 2:03 | : Is Hunter Brown a bust? |
| 2:03 | : I mean, that remains to be seen |
| 2:03 | : but, I don’t think so and I don’t think it’s that close |
| 2:03 | : FGs Cy Young AL Award Predictor has Bibee at #11. Is the AL ROY Award winner closer than we think? Bibee is Top 10 in ERA among MLB Starters and #5 in MLB WPA (min 100 IP) behind Gallen, Gray, Snell and Cole. What do you think? |
| 2:03 | : Nah, I think Gunnar being on the Orioles and being a brighter prospect are both just distinguishing factors |
| 2:03 | : Who knows how the award works exactly but, I don’t see it, Henderson seems like just too easy of a choice |
| 2:04 | : As we’ve seen in the past the Cards are much more fans of using assets + money rather than just money to acquire players of significant magnitude. To that end, I would think it’s much more likely they seek out a high end SP via that route rather than the FA market and I would prefer Burnes, Glasnow, Gilbert, etc over Snell or Nola anyway. Thoughts on the potential offseason SP targets from your viewpoint? As a Cards fan, it’s all I have to ponder right now (sigh) |
| 2:04 | : I mean, I don’t think Cards fans are being rational about the chances of getting one of the Seattle guys |
| 2:04 | : I went on an STL radio show and said that Jordan Walker alone wouldn’t be enough to trade for Gilbert |
| 2:04 | : I don’t think that’s a particularly controversial view |
| 2:04 | : and people were RILED UP about how dumb I was |
| 2:05 | : I agree with you that hte Cards like to trade players for stars, but I don’t see Burnes moving in the division, and I’m not sure the Cards are an ideal pair for Glasnow, so I kind of think it won’t happen |
| 2:05 | : Hey Ben! Can you look into your crystal ball and tell us what the Dodgers are going to do for their playoff rotation? Miller 1, Kersh 2, Pepiot/Lynn/Yarbrough piggy back or bullpen games 3 and 4? Thanks! |
| 2:05 | : I mean, this sounds pretty close to it, yeah |
| 2:05 | : I think you can count on Sheehan getting some run in there too |
| 2:06 | : Is Seager-Semien the best infield duo you’ve watched (both offensively and defensively)? Correa-Altuve comes to mind, but I’m definitely forgetting a few from the last few years. |
| 2:06 | : I do like this question, let me try to think of some |
| 2:07 | : I think I’d give them the edge over Albies/Swanson in recent vintage examples. If we’re talking about the 21st century, let’s say, hmmmm |
| 2:07 | : yeah I can’t think of a better example, but if anyone in the chat comes up with one, shoot |
| 2:07 | : So, Mookie should’ve been Tony-Phillipsing since day one, huh? |
| 2:08 | : Currently, who is your AL pick. Seems pretty wide open. |
| 2:08 | : Best active players without a WS win/appearance? A lot of the young stars have won (especially if Acuna’s ring in 2021 counts). |
| 2:08 | : I think it just depends on how you phrase it |
| 2:08 | : Isn’t it just Mike Trout or Ohtani, though? |
| 2:08 | : depending on how you define best |
| 2:08 | : Looks bleak for the Astros but getting swept by the Royals at home tends to do that. |
| 2:08 | : Yeah, what a bad time to have this happen |
| 2:08 | : Of the teams still with a shot at the World Series, which possible opponents’ cities would you most like to get to eat in? A foodie championship. |
| 2:09 | : Okay, I like this question quite a bit. LA food scene is great, but I’ve been there a decent amount, ,so I’m not sure if it’s a question for me or for the teams |
| 2:10 | : I’d also put Seattle and Houston high on the list, I’m not sure which one will be left out in the cold but I like Vietcajun food so I’d like Houston, and I’ve always had delicious meals in Seattle |
| 2:10 | : Toronto is high on my list as well |
| 2:10 | : Andrew Vaughn pretty much this w maybe a few upticks here and there? I keep hoping for that breakout year and…..still waiting. |
| 2:10 | : Yeah kinda seems like this is him |
| 2:10 | : Wilyer Abreu looks like a find. The Red Sox now have 4 left handed hitting outfielders, Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida and Abreu. Verdugo gets nothing in return so what happens next? |
| 2:11 | : I think Yoshida ends up DH’ing more, but also that injuries and underperformance will work things out. Given that Verdugo is gone after next year, it’s no great tragedy if he gets pinched on PT a little, so long as the other players are better |
| 2:11 | : I went down a rabbit hole and ended up being fascinated with global economics. I believe you dealt with some weird exchange rate job back in the day. Anyway, I’m currently reading “Capital in the 21st Century” by Thomas Piketty. Have you read it and/or do you have any economic books you’d recommend to a beginner? Sorry if this isn’t in your wheelhouse, but I’m reading about exchange rates and you’re chatting today so figured I’d ask. |
| 2:11 | : That’s a heavy read, and I have read it but I’m not sure I’m good enough at econ |
| 2:11 | : to truly understand it |
| 2:12 | : I really liked the book that introduced me to economics, “New Ideas From Dead Economists”, no idea if it’s still in print |
| 2:12 | : also, I loooooooved “Inventing Money”, a book about Long Term Capital Management’s rise and fall. Failing that, I just think the LTCM saga was really interesting, so “When Genius Failed” makes the list as well |
| 2:13 | : What is Tony-Philipsing (reference the mookie Betts question)? |
| 2:13 | : playing IF/OF to be a true multi-positional beast is how I interpreted it |
| 2:13 | : I’ve read that the Japanese player hierarchy may make it more difficult to sign a Japanese FA if you have a Japanese born player already rostered. Is there really anything to that? Seems like having a player in the clubhouse who speaks your native tongue would be a huge positive (unless he’s a jerk). |
| 2:13 | : Never heard of such a thing, so I tend to not believe it |
| 2:13 | : This will seem more negative than I intend, but is Volpe just Dan Uggla as a solid defensive SS? That would be a 4-5 win player, even if it’s .230 with a ton of k’s. |
| 2:14 | : I think he’s a better athlete, which gives me hope he’ll fill out a few other skills, but generally yes, that comp kinda works for me |
| 2:14 | : Utley/Rollins would have to be considered |
| 2:14 | : Re: infield duo – Rollins and Utley |
| 2:14 | : Yeah, solid call. I’d give the one-season edge to Semien/Seager but let’s see them keep it up for multiple years |
| 2:14 | : Yamamoto & Bellinger +$100M or Ohtani. Which side have you got? |
| 2:14 | : I’d take Ohtani but Yamamoto does indeed look awesome |
| 2:14 | : I’m just kinda skeptical of Bellinger |
| 2:15 | : I considered this one but unless I’m misremembering JRam was never really a full-time 2b |
| 2:15 | : Has any team gone nuts in a rule 5 draft and taken, idk, 4-5 players in a crapshoot rebuild? *eyes his Royals lack of roster talent and farm* |
| 2:15 | : Oh man, the Padres did |
| 2:15 | : and it was ridiculous |
| 2:15 | : they took random totally-not-ready guys and it burned some of them badly |
| 2:15 | : seager and trea turner |
| 2:15 | : My favorite book was the economics of the undead that taught compound interest, market theory, and things like that but from the point of view of zombies and vampires. Its hard to do well but when things that people spend years researching are filtered into common language I love it. Any similar recommendations? |
| 2:16 | : Lol I hadn’t heard of this one but that sounds great |
| 2:16 | : For folks looking for econ books, I’d highly recommend Debt: The First 5000 Years by David Graeber. It’s more a critique of economics from an anthropological perspective, but it’s really fascinating and a lot of food for thought |
| 2:16 | : Love some good book recs |
| 2:16 | : I see you’re not answering my mob question due to your own fears of the mob. |
| 2:16 | : Lightning round |
| 2:16 | : what question does this refer to |
| 2:16 | : get your guesses in now |
| 2:17 | : Mother of the Bride – everyone rational fears the Mother of the Bride |
| 2:17 | : Mobb Deep |
| 2:18 | : Alright, I didn’t see any guesses better than Mobb Deep, but let’s answer the question |
| 2:18 | : Why is Dominic Leone on the Mariners roster right now and how much does it have to do with Jerry Dipoto’s ties to the mob? |
| 2:18 | : It was about mop recommendations, but there was a typo |
| 2:19 | : I actually think Canzone is at least reasonable |
| 2:19 | : I truly cannot explain Leone continuing to get work, it’s amazing |
| 2:19 | : give him an offseason to retool at least |
| 2:19 | : Arizona, LA, and SD all are building impressive farm systems. Do you think SF will be able to take the nl west next year? |
| 2:19 | : Yes, but I also think they’re able to get Ohtani |
| 2:20 | : failing to do the second is going to limit their ability to get the first done |
| 2:20 | : the Giants are consistently good about building a good role player backdrop |
| 2:20 | : they need stars though |
| 2:20 | : Robbie Alomar/Vizquel. Bret Boone/ARod. and my favorite underrated duo, Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen |
| 2:20 | : Andrus/Kinsler? TEX has had some good ones. |
| 2:20 | : Bogaerts/Pedroia had 3 good seasons together. |
| 2:20 | : We’ve got plenty of options, but none of these are really jumping out as better than Seager/Semien to me |
| 2:21 | : Seager and Semien are really good! |
| 2:21 | : With the universal DH and seemingly more defensive versatility than in the past is it time to rethink Postional Adjustment and maybe even zero it out (could raise replacement level to account for the difference)? |
| 2:21 | : Something like DH (-12) 1B (-9) LF (-6) RF (-3) 2B (+2) 3B (+3) CF (+5) SS (+8) C (+12) is a little flatter distribution and adds up to zero for instance. |
| 2:21 | : We’ve discussed this internally a few times. Honestly I think some kind of FG summit to nail this down would make sense but we always end up with more pressing stuff |
| 2:22 | : I’m hoping to do some work on the playoff odds model this offseason, for example |
| 2:22 | : which honestly feels both easier and more impactful to me than figuring out new positional adjustments |
| 2:22 | : Immaculate grid led me down a bbref path that taught me there was a player named Lil Stoner (Full name Ulysses S Grant Stoner). Modern baseball nicknames stink. |
| 2:22 | : a classic OOTP Perfect Team player |
| 2:22 | : and yes, cannot agree more, old baseball names rocked |
| 2:22 | : Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 104 WRC+ |
| 2:22 | : Oh boy, let’s go |
| 2:23 | : Hey Ben, I’m trying to learn more and conduct my own sabermetrics analysis and fantasy research to gain experience and build up my portfolio. Do you have any tips/suggestions for this type of research? |
| 2:23 | : Find something you want to know or that seems weird to you |
| 2:23 | : that’s how I got started |
| 2:24 | : just, something that draws your interest and that you are going to be interested in digging into |
| 2:24 | : Tejada and Brian Roberts |
| 2:24 | : I mean…. no, but fun |
| 2:24 | : Why is 2B higher on the defensive spectrum than CF? Feels like CF should only be below SS and C, no? |
| 2:24 | : i will say, I think this ended up the case when I tried to look into it |
| 2:24 | : CF has a huge spread, though |
| 2:24 | : like there are some CF’s that are just WAY above the bar |
| 2:24 | : i think the rando’s that people squeeze into CF at times drag down the adjustment |
| 2:25 | : but then in exchagne, the great defensive CF’s get a huge boost |
| 2:25 | : Baez….what happened? Guy hit .273+. for 5 years…then has been baffling bad. Sure his pitch selection sucks…but was it ever good? It reminds of the drop off from Allen Craig. Went from .300+ AS to mendoza line and out of league in like 2 seasons. |
| 2:25 | : i truly don’t know |
| 2:25 | : it was just wham, out of nowhere |
| 2:26 | : Help us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi! Baseball season is fading fast, and you’re our only hope! (Bonus points for Star Wars commander Kerkering) |
| 2:26 | : weekly star wars content |
| 2:26 | : also, I just started playing Jedi Fallen Order |
| 2:26 | : wow is it fun |
| 2:27 | : can’t believe i’m four years late to the party on this one |
| 2:27 | : Does changing balls from season to season bother you as much as it bothers me? It makes it more difficult to compare era’s |
| 2:28 | : it does a little |
| 2:28 | : but Ben Lindbergh’s research, which I can’t find right off the top of my head, suggests that the same thing has been going on for a while |
| 2:28 | : and might have been a big reason behind the ‘steroids era’ home ru n boost |
| 2:28 | : Out of possible playoff teams, what is your desired WS matchup? |
| 2:28 | : O’s Brewers |
| 2:29 | : Kind of amazing that the Yankees have had basically everything go wrong for them this year and are a .500ish team. Severino stunk, Montas out for the year, Rodon hurt/ineffective, Cortes hurt/ineffective, Judge missed 50 games, Rizzo played through a concussion for two months and played terribly, Stanton not hitting, Bader injured/terrible, Trevino out for the season, German alcohol rehab, Jasson Dominguez UCL tear, etc. I’m sure I’m forgetting some things but it’s been a bloodbath. I think they’ll be aggressive this offseason but if they make minor upgrades I think they’ve got a good shot at 90 wins. |
| 2:30 | : This seems pretty reasonable to me |
| 2:30 | : I do think that generally people catastrophize too much about good-ish teams having unlucky seasons |
| 2:30 | : I’ve always wondered why the positional adjustments aren’t estimated empirically, and it seems incredibly easy to do. If you take the average or maybe median (non-positionally adjusted) RAA/162 of all 3rd basemen in the league, doesn’t that give you real average level of play at that position? Maybe smoothed over n-years like park effects |
| 2:30 | : I think the real argument here is whether you want to estimate it by including offensive production |
| 2:30 | : I don’t want to |
| 2:31 | : my example would be that if the best 30 players in baseball played shortstop |
| 2:31 | : and the worst 30 played left field |
| 2:31 | : it’d be weird to adjust based on that |
| 2:31 | : that’s why we adjust based on fielding ability rather than by positional production |
| 2:31 | : What type of hitter would you send up to pinch hit against prime Degrom? A high power strikeout type or a low power contact guy? Let’s assume they’re both at a 100 wRC+. |
| 2:31 | : honestly I’d probably send up the contact guy because I just think the true strikeout rate for a strikeout-prone hitter against deGrom is comically high |
| 2:31 | : If SF misses the playoffs in 23 & 24, do Kapler and Zaidi stay? |
| 2:31 | : I don’t think so |
| 2:32 | : the rope has to be getting a little bit thin given the past two years |
| 2:32 | : they just haven’t been able to build the combination of top end and depth |
| 2:32 | : Infield duo: Placido Polanco and whoever played SS. Probably not right but I just wanted to mention Placido Polanco and his weird jawline. |
| 2:32 | : haha I always think of him as a 3b |
| 2:32 | : but I loved Polanco and was very sad when the Cardinals traded him in the Rolen deal |
| 2:32 | : i mean, until I got to see Rolen play, etc. |
| 2:32 | : I heard you was talking about me recently. This is a really nice chat that you have here. It would be a real shame if anything were to happen to it. |
| 2:33 | : Speaking of 2B and the Yankees, remember when Brian Roberts played for the Yankees? Yuck. |
| 2:33 | : honestly, i do not |
| 2:34 | : Predict Yamamoto’s MLB contract and to what team. |
| 2:34 | : I think he’ll get…. 5/120 |
| 2:35 | : but I haven’t done much looking at contracts this year tbh |
| 2:35 | : that’s October work |
| 2:35 | : An infield question I’ve thought about for a while: If the league changed from 65% RH hitters to 65% LH hitters, how would the value of 2B vs SS change? |
| 2:35 | : let’s figure it out |
| 2:36 | : so among righty hitters, 21.4% of batted balls end up pulled on the ground |
| 2:36 | : Lefty hitters, 5.2% of batted balls end up pulled on the gorund |
| 2:36 | : so add that with the 65% RH, right now you have 15.7% of batted balls to the ‘shortstop’ bucket speaking very broadly |
| 2:37 | : if the ratio flipped, that would go to 10.9% |
| 2:38 | : meanwhile, righties go oppo grounder 5.3% of the time, and lefties pull grounders 21.1% of their batted balls. So ‘2b’ bucket would go from 10.8% to 15.6% |
| 2:38 | : I don’t think they’d quite flip value, b/c shortstop is still harder |
| 2:38 | : but yes, more or less, you’d see a big shift in value towards the guy who has to make more plays |
| 2:38 | : First, congrats on your sudden wealth. Second, which of the following do you do this offseason? a) Keep AJ Preller & Bob Melvin (& expect regression to the mean) |
| 2:39 | : probably c for me, but that’s because I’m a very confident person and I’d want my own team who thinks about baseball in a broadly similar way to me in the job |
| 2:39 | : RE “if the worst 30 players played left field”: If a team found a left fielder who was a plus hitter and defender, he would be way more valuable in your hypothetical world than in ours, right? Because his replacement would be a bottom-30 player |
| 2:39 | : right, and that’s bad |
| 2:39 | : I don’t want that |
| 2:39 | : Oh I see what you’re saying |
| 2:39 | : Let’s say he’s a 120 wrC+ hitter |
| 2:39 | : and the worst shorstop is a 135 wRC+ hitter |
| 2:40 | : who’s worse? |
| 2:40 | : Have you seen Austin Wells catch? I’m no scout, but he looks fine back there. He can stab at the ball at times, but I think overall he’s decent back there. If the Yankees didn’t think he could catch, he wouldn’t be catching at all right now. Kind of like what they did with Jesus Montero (who never caught an MLB game with the Yankees). |
| 2:40 | : I haven’t, to be honest |
| 2:40 | : I just put this question up in case someone in the chat has |
| 2:40 | : Are the Twins a postseason sleeper? Very good and deep starting staff, bullpen that is getting an influx of talent from surplus/recovering starters (Maeda, Paddack, Varland), and a lineup that has really hit its stride in the second half (assuming returns from Lewis, Correa, and maybe Buxton). |
| 2:41 | : Sure, I guess, I just mostly think they’re correctly regarded as needing to get a little lucky in any series |
| 2:41 | : which means in aggregate I don’t love their odds |
| 2:41 | : I think there’s no way Yamamoto gets less than Masahiro Tanaka. (7/155 + 20M posting fee). |
| 2:41 | : Yeah, I mean, that’s possible, I’ve been kinda surprised by the light deals for NPB stars recently |
| 2:41 | : I thought Senga would have gotten more than he did for example |
| 2:42 | : I just want to note that Bret Boone and ARod never actually played together, so they don’t count as a 2B/SS duo. |
| 2:42 | : Useful point |
| 2:42 | : I had no idea |
| 2:43 | : Yamamoto is the shinier prospect, but Imanaga is a lefty invisiballer who is going to absolutely dominate with like the Rays or Dodgers or Guards or an org like that. |
| 2:43 | : Dan’s projections last year had Imanaga as better than Senga |
| 2:43 | : Senga turns out to be pretty good! |
| 2:44 | : Doesn’t every team (except maybe Atlanta) need to get a little lucky in every series? I guess my question is more along the lines of “Are the Twins a better team now than the odds are giving them, given how different they look compared to earlier in the season?” |
| 2:44 | : Oh…. I don’t really think so. I think the odds are being pretty fair to them, in that I don’t see any obvious place we’re under- or over-rating them |
| 2:45 | : they have no doubt been playing well, but the playing poorly earlier counts too, and so does the track record of a lot of these guys just being pretty good without being great in past years |
| 2:45 | : there are a lot of not-so-great at-bats to go around in that lineup |
| 2:45 | : Wallner/Farmer/Jeffers/Larnach/Taylor as 5-9 stings a little |
| 2:45 | : and I dunno what their health is gonna look like |
| 2:46 | : Bought some of the Econ books recommended, thanks all. Follow up Q, say I’m a replacement level player in the economy, how could I become a 3 WAR citizen? |
| 2:46 | : Interesting, I guess I’m not uqite sure what you’re asking but I think that finding a good high yield savings account and picking the right credit card goes a long way towards maximizing personal finances for most people |
| 2:46 | : Joey still bangs! Joey still bangs… right…? Truly, what is the point of baseball without Joey Votto. It will not be the same.That game yesterday was the first time I have ever been genuinely sad about potentially losing a player… |
| 2:46 | : It’s going to be sad |
| 2:48 | : Someone asked this, but I think the palce he’s most likely to go if he comes back is Toronto |
| 2:48 | : that’d be very fun |
| 2:48 | : RE RE: Let’s flip the hypothetical into the real world. Lets say the worst DH is a 135 wRC+, and the best Catcher is 120 wRC+. Who’s more valuable? And more importantly, does this situation differ from your hypothetical where every shortstop is better than every left fielder? |
| 2:48 | : well, depends on the defense |
| 2:48 | : the difference in the shortstop example is that presumably that 135 wRC+ shortstop could play LF if he had to |
| 2:48 | : and generally players can move between positions with some loss function |
| 2:48 | : if they couldn’t, then I’d get bucketing by positional production more |
| 2:49 | : Why dont teams rest their starters for a week or two if they have a huge lead in standings when rosters expand? Skip a couple rotation spots and have them fresh for playoffs with some AAA guys. |
| 2:49 | : I think it has to do with keeping them in rhythm |
| 2:49 | : it’s a weird unknown to introduce |
| 2:49 | : how good is x pitcher after two weeks off? |
| 2:49 | : I do think that teams should generally give their guys extra rest days, don’t push them toooooo hard, etc |
| 2:49 | : but skipping several turns seems like it could be counterproductive |
| 2:49 | : Which rotation options would you lean on in October, if you were the Dodgers? The vets with low/dipping velo like Kershaw, Lynn, and Yarbrough. Or the inexperienced flame throwers like Sheehan, Pepiot, Stone, and Grove? Or piggyback the kids after the vets? |
| 2:49 | : I’d go for the piggybacking model I think |
| 2:49 | : that just makes the most sense to me, I’m definitely worried about the vets giving you six consistent innings |
| 2:50 | : My favorite old-timey baseball name is Pickles Dillhoefer. |
| 2:50 | : that’s definitely a good one |
| 2:51 | : Going back to last Monday’s chat…our family had a blast at Wainwright’s #200 to say the least. |
| 2:51 | : You love to hear it |
| 2:51 | : LA would’ve been better off not signing Peralta and Thor, ducking under the tax, and playing more rookies. Heyward out hit Peralta vs righties, Thor wasn’t good, the kids need more experience before the playoffs and they easily took the NL west. Should’ve spent a little less and they might’ve been better off for it |
| 2:51 | : Ah yes, they should have not signed the players who didn’t work out |
| 2:51 | : I dunno how they missed that |
| 2:52 | : In all seriousness, I think that a lot of the idea here was to just throw a lot of noodles at the wall to see what stuck |
| 2:53 | : those two did not, I’m surprised Peralta is still around tbh |
| 2:53 | : Sorry, just lost internet briefly |
| 2:53 | : just listened to the episode with Bernie you mentioned – it is funny to think you could get Gilbert for less than a Walker or something similar. lottttta stl commenters have that Burleson for Gilbert trade penciled in already lol |
| 2:54 | : Burleson for anything would be very impressive |
| 2:54 | : Speaking of Syndergaard, he’s an obvious non-roster invitee candidate next year. Where should he go? |
| 2:54 | : I’d say the Dodgers except, lol |
| 2:54 | : so I guess the Rays? |
| 2:54 | : gotta keep trying to get that pixie dust sprinkled on your arm |
| 2:54 | : The Padres are the answer to a lot of WTF baseball questions over the last 25 years. |
| 2:54 | : In a season where the Cardinals set a franchise record for players (52) I will one day be able to tell my grandkids I saw Ryan Tepera don the Birds on the Bat in person. Goosebumps. |
| 2:54 | : There have been some good nicknames IMO, just fallen into the trap of first name letter, last name 1zt 3. JRam, Arod, etc. Like the media w -gate for everything. Allen Craig was Wrench, Baez El Mago, Raleigh Big Dumper. We could have had ACra, JBae, and CRal. |
| 2:54 | : that’s true, El Mago is an all-timer imo |
| 2:55 | : I also like Jose “Mal Tiempo” Abreu |
| 2:55 | : I’ve said it once I’ll say it a million times, the Carlson/Rogers Miami trade draws near |
| 2:55 | : Yeah, this seems extremely in range |
| 2:55 | : Masataka Yoshida’s season really cratered. Is he really just a 4th OF/DH type or is there more there? |
| 2:56 | : I think there’s more there, but probably like a great LH bat with marginal utility against lefties kinda deal |
| 2:56 | : I thought the LF v SS question was about how much a player’s value changes when compared to the average? So if LF represents the 30 worst players in baseball, then finding a “good” one is more valuable then in reality where the best players are more spread out. |
| 2:56 | : I just think it depends on what you want WAR to do |
| 2:56 | : If healthy, that 5-9 turns into Correa, Buxton, Kiriloff, Wallner (140 wRC+), and Jeffers (134 wRC+). Availability is a big caveat (especially Buxton playing the OF), but that seems like a decent bottom half of the order, no? |
| 2:56 | : Ok c’mon get out of here with Buxton playing the outfield haha |
| 2:56 | : he hasn’t all year! |
| 2:56 | : He’s rehabbing at DH |
| 2:56 | : it’s not happening |
| 2:58 | : Matt Wallner’s 237 PA are doing a lot of work in making that sound great. I will agree that getting Correa back would do a lot, and Lewis though I’m kinda skeptical he’s returning |
| 2:58 | : but like, we aren’t giving those guys much PT |
| 2:58 | : and our odds are based on our PT projections |
| 2:59 | : so if the question is ‘will the twins be healthier than our projections’, maybe? |
| 2:59 | : If they are, I assume our odds will change as those guys get back in |
| 2:59 | : but we have to construct teams based on their expected playing time and then just the model’s projection for those guys |
| 2:59 | : Which pitcher has your favorite delivery right now? |
| 3:00 | : oh man…. it’s a guy whose name I’m completely blanking on now |
| 3:00 | : mets/dodgers up and down reliever |
| 3:01 | : just watch his delivery, it’s delightful and strange to me |
| 3:01 | : it’s like someone sawed off half of a real delivery |
| 3:01 | : alright on that note, I gotta run, have a great week everyone. Lots of awesome baseball to watch |
| 3:02 | : and also, if you’re me, a bunch of old apple games |
| 3:02 | : It sure would be a shame if something happened to your precious Apple TV odds article! |
| 3:02 | : on that note |
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
