The Mariners swept the Reds behind a strong showing from their rotation. After having some struggles in the rotation, this series showed their true potential.
It started on Monday when took the mound. Kirby had struggled before this outing with an ERA over 7 to open his season. Kirby, who for many was an outsider for the CY Young Award this year, rebounded with a strong outing. Kirby pitched six innings of two run ball. The 26-year-old allowed just five hits, one of them for a homer by Jake Fraley. Not surprisingly Kirby didn’tallow a walk, to lower his walk rate to 2.2%.
It was a start that was bound to happen for Kirby, who has been far better than his numbers indicated. His overall numbers still aren’t up to par, but looking into his numbers deeper, we see some indications of him being unlucky. His overall ERA is still high at 6.64, but his expected ERA stands at 3.45, which is in the 66th percentile.
Kirby his hard-hit rate against is just 26.5% which is in the 88th percentile in the major leagues. However, hitters are able to lift the ball more often against Kirby. So far Kirby has allowed a fairly high sweet spot percentage. So, while the overall hard-hit rate is down, hitters are able to get better contact on the balls that get hit hard. Main issue so far is his Slider.
Last year on the Slider, Kirby had a .271/.286/.368 expected slash line against, while so far, he has an expected slash against .284/.359/.583 that same pitch. Main difference is the horizontal movement on the pitch. It went from 11 inches of horizontal break to 8.1 inches so far this year. It’s seen in the Run Value results as it went from plus 6 last season to minus 1 in 2024.
Although Kirby’s latest outing was better, his Slider still wasn’t at his best. He threw the Slider 16%, which is less than his average on the season, which could indicate him not having the full feel for the pitch yet. He got five swings on the Slider, but none of them got a whiff.
Still, it was a promising outing for Kirby, which was followed by a strong outing from Logan Gilbert. Gilbert threw 6.2 innings of one run ball, striking out six and allowing just three hits and one walk. It was another strong outing for Gilbert, who lowered his ERA to 2.33. While Gilbert is off to a better start, he did allow his fair share of hard-hit balls in his outing. It shows in his expected ERA which stands at 3.73 which is higher than Kirby his expected ERA.
Gilbert’s hard-hit rate stands at 41.8%, which is higher than the major league average (36.8%). It shows in his expected Slugging %, as Gilbert has a .452 expected slugging against. Also higher as the major league average at .406.
In the end, Gilbert has a lower ERA than his Expected ERA in his career. And run prevention is more important than Expected ERA. So, no reason to panic and just enjoy Gilbert’s strong start to the season.
The great starting pitching series ended with another gem by Bryce Miller. The Reds had just a .147 Expected Batting average in the loss against Miller and the bullpen. Miller allowed just one hit (a homer from Elly de la Cruz) over six strong frames.
His main success was his Fastball, which got just one ball in play against 40 total 4 Seamers. The one ball in play was hit hard but got him an out. Of the 40 4 Seamers, Miller got 4 whiffs, 8 called strikes and 14 foul balls. That’s 40 Four Seamers, 27 Strikes. A tremendous outing using his 4 Seamer 44% of the time.
A great series by the three young stud pitchers. Yes, the Mariners are 8-10 on the season but things are looking up. Their main plus will be their starting pitching and if that gets going, it’sgonna be a fun ride.
