I guess we statistically inclined writers aren’t technically supposed to believe in momentum. At least, we’re not supposed to believe it’s measurable or predictive. In baseball as in physics, the trajectory of events can be altered in the blink of an eye. Sometimes it’s hard to pinpoint the moment momentum changes. Not so here.

On Wednesday night, Aaron Nola followed up Zack Wheeler’s Game 1 masterpiece with seven scoreless innings of his own. The Phillies got to Braxton Garrett early and broke the game open with a late Bryson Stott grand slam. Final score: 7-1. Time to crank the Tiësto remix of Calum Scott’s cover of “Dancing On My Own,” play the video of Harry Kalas singing “High Hopes,” and hop on a plane to Atlanta for the NLDS.

It looked very, very easy, even by the standards of a two-game sweep, but it was not preordained. Needing one win to clinch the series, the Phillies were presented with two obvious chances to seize control of the game. They grabbed both without hesitation.

The Marlins didn’t have the initiative for long in Game 2, but they did have it early.

In my series preview, I said that if the Marlins were going to win this series, two things had to happen: Garrett had to pitch well, and the Miami offense had to tag Nola for at least one big inning. Garrett was exceptional for two innings, striking out four of the first seven batters he faced and dotting the corners of the strike zone precisely.

In the top of the third, Jon Berti put a ball in the gap that left fielder Cristian Pache put a glove on but couldn’t haul in. Berti, last year’s NL stolen base leader, stood on second base with one out in a scoreless game and Luis Arraez on deck. This was a perfect opportunity to draw first blood and put pressure on Nola, either with a stolen base or by getting a jump on a potential hit with a full count.

So Berti tried to jump for third on first move; Nola brought his leg down, spun, and threw him out easily. The crowd of nearly 46,000 gave its first real pop of the night, and Nola retired Jacob Stallings on the very next pitch to end the inning.

“I feel like there was a little momentum shift,” Nola said. “So to get that out was huge, and I just tried to make my pitch to Stallings with that 3-2 count, and it ended up working out well.”

Nola only allowed four baserunners all night — three hits and a walk — and erased three of them himself, between the pickoff and two double plays. The Marlins had just one full plate appearance with a runner in scoring position, and Jesús Sánchez bounced into a double play.

“I feel so proud of [Nola], because he went through a lot this year because he struggled at times and there were the home runs and the big innings and things like that, but he just kept grinding and he kept fighting, kept working,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “Finally he found some stuff at the end of the year, and he’s been lights out. I expected this. I really did, because I know who he is. I’ve seen him do this before, and he just came through. But I’m so proud of him. He’s a warrior.”

When Garrett came back out for the bottom of the third, his fastball velocity had dropped 2 mph and his command had gone missing. Pache walked to lead off the inning and scored on Kyle Schwarber’s double to put the Phillies out in front. Schwarber came home three pitches later when Trea Turner lined an RBI single off Garrett. The Phillies scored five more runs after that, but did not need them.

Still, the Marlins hung around until the bottom of the sixth; a deficit of three runs (J.T. Realmuto added a solo shot in the fourth) could be erased in an instant, and with Nola’s pitch count rising maybe the Marlins would find an opportunity against him as they did (albeit unsuccessfully) against Wheeler the night before.

With two runners on and one out, Nick Castellanos bounced a grounder to third baseman Jake Burger, who has many positive qualities but is not exactly an Adrián Beltré-level defender. Had Burger backhanded it cleanly, he would’ve had at least one out and a shot at an inning-ending double play.

He booted it, loading the bases. Bryson Stott hit the very next pitch 412 feet.

HOLY GRAND SLAM BRYSON STOTT pic.twitter.com/xTdrDcjGDn

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 5, 2023

At that point, everyone knew it was over.

The Marlins were outscored 11-2 in this series. They never led. Their win expectancy never rose above 54% in either of the two games, and was only above 50% for three of the 66 total plate appearances in the series. Tanner Scott, one of the best relievers in baseball this season, didn’t pitch in Game 1, as the Marlins already trailed 3-0 by the time Skip Schumaker went to his bullpen — hardly the time to burn his relief ace with two more games to win in as many days.

Before Game 2, Scott was asked how long he was prepared to pitch in pursuit of a season-extending victory.

“Whatever the team needs, I’m open for anything,” he said. “I want to keep this going, so one, two, three… hopefully not more than three, but whatever.”

He got one inning, the bottom of the eighth, with the Marlins down seven runs. The leverage index for his first pitch was 0.00. Miami couldn’t score enough to conjure a scenario worth using their closer in.

The Phillies’ offense was very good, scoring their 11 series runs despite only breaking open the can of dingers after the lead in Game 2 had been procured.

But that was of secondary importance. The Phillies’ reputation is that of a team of mashers, a lineup of big, powerful home run hitters — charmingly louche and frequently barechested. But the Phillies won this series behind exceptional performances from a pair of businesslike, laconic starting pitchers.

“Wheeler and Nola. Those guys are going to haunt my dreams,” Schumaker said. Asked after the game whether he considered bringing Scott in earlier, before the game got out of hand, the Marlins manager defended his bullpen usage but said with the way the Phillies’ starters pitched, nothing else really mattered. And he was right.

“The two guys that pitched in this series were as expected,” Thomson said. “I mean, that’s what they do. They shut people down, and they’re big game pitchers.”

The next opponent up is Atlanta, whose offense — the best in baseball this year by a huge distance — will almost certainly score more than one run per game. With the Braves’ rotation hobbled by injuries, Wheeler and Nola (along with the as-yet-unused Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez) represent Philadelphia’s best hope against the National League’s top seed.

The Phillies’ ultimate success will depend on how fully they exploit their advantage in the rotation. And whether they can maintain their momentum.