In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald will hold a Mets-specific chat on 10-12-23 at 3:15 pm CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Mets endured one of the most disappointing seasons in history and now change is the name of the game. There’s a new front office regime in place, which will hopefully lead to better results going forward. It’s expected that they will be less aggressive this winter, but by how much?

Guaranteed Contracts

• Francisco Lindor, SS: $256MM through 2031
• Brandon Nimmo, OF: $141.75MM through 2030
• Edwin Díaz, RHP: $72.75MM through 2027 (including buyout of 2028 club option, also has opt-out after ’25)
• Kodai Senga, RHP: $56MM through 2027
• Jeff McNeil, IF/OF: $43.75MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option)
• Starling Marte, OF: $39MM through 2025
• José Quintana, LHP: $13MM through 2024
• Omar Narváez, C: $7MM player option
• Adam Ottavino, RHP: $6.75MM player option
• Tomás Nido, C: $2.1MM through 2024

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

• Paying $30.83MM to Rangers for Max Scherzer’s salary
• Paying $31.3MM to Astros for Justin Verlander’s salary (plus half of $35MM vesting option in ’25, if triggered)
• Paying $8MM to Orioles for James McCann
• $250K buyout on 2024 club option for IF/OF Darin Ruf

2024 financial commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are all picked up): $218.98MM
Total future commitments (assuming options for Narvaez/Ottavino/Raley are picked up, not including Verlander’s ’25 option): $714.98MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Vogelbach, Hernández, Smith, Guillorme, Locastro, Coonrod, Brigham, Curtiss, Pérez, Mendick, Ortega

Free Agents

The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and then ran up the highest payroll in baseball history for 2023, going into the season with the greatest of expectations. Unfortunately, a rash of pitcher injuries put them behind the eight ball early on and they fell out of contention. As the summer wore on and the plane continued its descent towards the ocean, they had no choice but to reach for the emergency floatation devices. They traded Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and David Robertson, often eating substantial amounts of money in order to improve their prospect returns.

After that fire sale, Scherzer told the media that he was informed the Mets planned to take a sort of step back in 2024. Owner Steve Cohen and then-general manager Billy Eppler sort of confirmed those remarks, with each adding that the club hopes to compete in ’24 but with a greater focus on ’25 and ’26. “We will be competitive in ’24 but I think ’25-26 is when our young talent makes an impact,” Cohen said at the time. “Lots of pitching in free agency in ’24. More payroll flexibility in ’25. Got a lot of dead money in ’24.”

That makes it unclear exactly how the club will approach the upcoming winter, but it won’t be Eppler calling the shots. David Stearns was hired to be the new president of baseball operations, leaving the Brewers and coming over to run the team he grew up cheering for. Since Milwaukee was generally quite competitive under Stearns despite limited payrolls, it’s hoped that he can bring even more success to Queens now that he will have Cohen’s resources at his disposal.

It was originally expected that Eppler would stay on as GM and work under Stearns, but he recently stepped aside amid a strange league investigation into the club’s use of the injured list. Stearns also fired manager Buck Showalter, leaving that position vacant as well. Presumably, replacing Showalter will be the higher priority, as Stearns should be capable of steering the front office without a GM for the time being.

Though the Mets ended up saving some money by selling at the deadline, they still have a payroll of $346MM for the year, per Roster Resource. That translates to a competitive balance tax figure of roughly $359MM, still well beyond the highest luxury tax threshold of $293MM, leading to a tax bill of over $88MM.

It seems they want to dial things back in the year to come, though there’s already plenty on the books, with RR pegging their 2024 payroll at $204MM and their CBT number at $219MM. That’s before factoring in estimated arbitration salaries. Pete Alonso alone will add over $20MM to both of those figures, putting them above next year’s $237MM base threshold for the luxury tax before the offseason even begins. They could move some money around if dipping under than line is a priority, but it doesn’t seem to be. Stearns has said the club plans to retain Alonso, while Cohen’s comments suggest the club is looking to bring in free agent pitchers this winter.

How aggressive they will be in that market remains to be seen, but there is definitely work to be done. With Scherzer and Verlander both out of the picture, the rotation is now headlined by Kodai Senga, who posted an excellent 2.98 earned run average in his first major league season. José Quintana missed much of 2023 due to injury but should be able to serve as a solid mid-rotation arm. After that is where things get murky. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, Peyton Battenfield and José Butto but the Mets likely don’t want to be relying on that group for anything more than depth.

That means they could realistically add two or three starters this winter. Given they are thinking of 2024 as a kind of transitional season, they probably won’t be aiming for top-of-the-market names like Blake Snell or Aaron Nola. Perhaps they would still consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he’s just 25 years old and would still line up with their future plans. But it’s also possible they target a lower level of free agency, perhaps taking fliers on bouncebacks from Frankie Montas or Luis Severino. Veterans like Kenta Maeda or Hyun Jin Ryu could eat some innings on short-term deals, with the knowledge that they may end up traded if the club is out of contention by next summer.

In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz will be back after a season lost to a fluke knee injury. Adam Ottavino seems likely to trigger his player option and come back for another season. Brooks Raley posted an ERA under 3.00 for a second straight year and the club should pick up his option, given the reasonable $5.25MM net decision. Trevor Gott should be in the mix after his decent season, especially after the club ate Chris Flexen’s contract to acquire him. But beyond that group, the bullpen core is a host of waiver claim types such as Phil Bickford and Anthony Kay.

A run at an expensive arm like Josh Hader or Robert Stephenson seems unlikely, but a few veterans on one-year deals would be sensible to strengthen the relief corps and also perhaps turn into deadline trade fodder. Craig Kimbrel, Matt Moore and John Brebbia are some of the many options there.

On the position player side, there should be less work to do. Francisco Álvarez took the catching job and ran with it this year. He received strong marks for his glovework while also popping 25 home runs. His offense was around league average on the whole thanks to a .209 batting average and .284 on-base percentage, but his .222 batting average on balls in play figures to improve going forward. Omar Narváez missed much of the year due to a calf strain and struggled after getting healthy but should be capable of serving as a solid backup.

Alonso figures to have first base spoken for, assuming he sticks around. His name was apparently discussed in trade rumors at the deadline but no deal came together. He’s entering his final arbitration season before he’s slated to reach free agency. As mentioned, Stearns has indicated the club plans to keep him for 2024 but he could wind up back on the trading block next summer if no extension is reached and the Mets aren’t in contention.

Francisco Lindor had yet another excellent season and should be back anchoring shortstop next year. He underwent surgery this week to remove a bone spur from his elbow but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. His double play partner will likely be Jeff McNeil, who started slow in 2023 but recovered in the second half. The Mets could theoretically add a second baseman and move McNeil to the outfield, but given the poor free agent market for middle infielders, it makes more sense to him to man the keystone. Middle infield prospect Luisangel Acuña could be a factor at some point next year, at which point McNeil could move to the grass.

Third base is a bit less certain, though there are internal options. Each of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio were highly-touted prospects on their way up but none of them have established themselves at the big league level yet. The club could consider a veteran stopgap here but it could also roll with a spring competition, leaving room for one of this group to break out and take the job.

The outfield will be anchored by Brandon Nimmo, who had a second straight healthy and productive season. The corners are a bit more questionable, especially with Starling Marte’s ongoing groin problems. He only played 86 games this year and had the worst showing of his career when healthy enough to play. With his injury absences and Canha being traded, DJ Stewart got a lengthy showing to finish the year. He struck out in 30.3% of his plate appearances but also hit 11 home runs in just 58 games. The power has been there before but he’s a poor fielder, which could perhaps lead the club to non-tender Daniel Vogelbach and make Stewart their left-handed DH.

There should be room for a veteran corner outfielder, or perhaps two if Marte remains a question mark. Assuming the club doesn’t go to the top available free agents like Teoscar Hernández or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., they could reunite with Tommy Pham or perhaps reach out to someone like Jason Heyward, Robbie Grossman or David Peralta.

It’s also possible the Mets throw their hat into the Shohei Ohtani bidding. It would be slightly incongruous to give out a record-setting contract in what’s supposed to be a quieter offseason, but it’s an unprecedented opportunity and Cohen can’t really be ruled out on anyone. Ohtani reportedly had a West Coast preference when he first came over from Japan but it’s in his best interest to entertain all suitors this time in order to maximize his earning power. He won’t be able to pitch in 2024 but could theoretically join the Mets’ rotation in 2025 while also adding a potent bat to the lineup right away.

The club is still a bit of a mystery this winter, especially with Cohen constantly deviating from standard operating procedure. Last winter’s aggression was unprecedented so it remains to be seen what his definition of a more modest offseason looks like. But with the division featuring a couple of powerhouse teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia as well as a Marlins club that’s coming off a strong campaign, it seems fair to expect the Mets play things somewhat cautiously for now, keeping their eyes on a future that will hopefully have plenty to be excited about with the Stearns-Cohen pairing.