HomeTrending MLB News2024 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

2024 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

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For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

With the sudden collapse of the Cardinals, the Rays are arguably the holders of the crown in the solid-but-not-spectacular department. With one problematic exception, just looking at the depth chart, you see a whole bunch of twos and threes but no obvious MVP candidates, unless Yandy Díaz finds yet another extra gear in him. But there’s also almost nowhere on the diamond where you expect a huge collapse if forced to find an emergency fill-in. Manuel Margot can capably take any outfield job handily, and elsewhere, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda can cover most anything needed outside of catcher.

It’s hard, however, to ignore the Wander Franco situation when discussing how good the Rays will be next year. The legal situation is something for the Dominican Republic to handle, but the Rays still have to do their baseball planning around it, and as of right now, they have an All-Star with MVP upside who may never play again due to some serious allegations in his home country. Four wins is a pretty big swing, and there isn’t really a suitable store-brand generic version of him that the Rays can come up with as a Plan B. That could be Carson Williams soon, but the start of 2024 seems to be a bit too quickly; his modest .202/.274/.366 projections in ZiPS is a whopping 60 points lower than his Steamer projection.

I expect the team to do its usual dollar store shopping and find another catcher, another candidate for shortstop, and maybe an extra bat for designated hitter, which looks to be the weakest spot in ZiPS. On that last point, ZiPS is definitely not bullish on Harold Ramírez repeating his 2023 numbers.

Pitchers

Losing Shane McClanahan for a year is brutal. The Rays lost more than their fair share of starting pitchers this season, but he was one of the key elements that made the injuries to Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen survivable. Now, though, McClanahan is out for 2024, Springs and Rasmussen are both likely to miss a large part of the season, and Baz’s exact return is very much up in the air.

Even if you’re very optimistic in relying on the health of Tyler Glasnow, he may not be back in Tampa next season. That means a lot of the Rays’ pitching fate is in the arms of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, though ZiPS at least is bullish on both of them for ’24. Taj Bradley’s stint in the majors came with some real hiccups, but a lot of the problem is the home run rate, which is extremely volatile for pitchers. ZiPS at least thinks he will take a spot in the middle of the rotation at some point, and the Steamer projection is nearly identical. Maybe Tampa will fix Cal Quantrill or something!

ZiPS is usually exuberant about the Rays’ bullpen, but this time around, instead of the usual 10–12 pitchers on the depth chart projected to be above average, I’m only counting seven or eight. They still have a lot of interesting options that nobody has ever heard of, like Chris Gau and Cameron Leonard, but it’s actually sparser in that department than most seasons. I expect to see the Rays hand out NRIs to a larger-than-typical number of minor league FA relievers this spring. Adam Leverett is another name to remember, recently picked up from the Phillies in a quiet trade. Don’t be surprised at that platoon split projection; he’s had notable reverse splits in the minors due mainly to his best pitch being a lively changeup with some nice fade. If converted to full-time relief, ZiPS projects a 3.89 ERA/108 ERA+, making him potentially another useful player plucked from the Island of Misfit Toys.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard

PlayerBAgePOPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCS
Wander FrancoB23SS4934466712225615644161217
Isaac ParedesR253B562486671172612687609911
Randy ArozarenaR29LF628545881443032283631522110
Yandy DíazR321B550478721372701565658011
Brandon LoweL292B4874276710222124735012961
Josh LoweL26RF52347466123303167143143252
Dominic KeeganR23C447399449018210503711411
Jonathan ArandaL262B5324666711823215735012621
Jose SiriR28CF4113835685173166022142153
Kenny PiperR25C341303386214111432510421
Curtis MeadR233B4083664691251949328332
Alex JacksonR28C25923529511311138168701
Luke RaleyL29RF3873395180152155327119102
Vidal BrujánB262B427387569319384533852112
Taylor WallsB272B403352517317283947104173
Austin ShentonL263B5044446010029114665215401
Kameron MisnerL26CF4974335783212115457189134
Carson WilliamsR21SS5334845998196166640207117
Junior CamineroR203B5264886112114319753012043
Manuel MargotR29CF39135944931927432765104
René PintoR27C336317337217012441511111
Tristan GrayL28SS475436508818217603016512
Logan DriscollL26C36833739741617402110921
Francisco MejíaB28C2862683266172734116301
Harold RamírezR29LF42939946111221956197543
Dru BakerR24RF470429569914585330129243
Tanner MurrayR242B2492312755162428135911
Jeffry ParraR26C193173163790322145301
Osleivis BasabeR23SS512474551172553502990115
Chandler SimpsonL23CF513466701181330373559449
Greg JonesB26CF322293395910373521133173
Ruben CardenasR26RF4934505610117315593614757
Nick DiniR30C241210304380626246331
Bob SeymourL251B368334427614111462812421
Shane SasakiR23CF33630643711425362598123
Tristan PetersL24LF4584165397205545349494
Ronny SimonB242B51647357101213115334128156
Niko HulsizerR27LF429379517420112494317153
Billy HamiltonB33CF143130212251191052101
Raimel TapiaL30RF39836447871526372886143
Erik OstbergL28C192177183671419136211
Johan LopezR23SS2602312644101324218751
Matthew DyerR25LF230212224072526139931
Willy VasquezR223B4994655199154104829148105
Alexander OvallesL23LF3252883660112531309342
Roberto AlvarezR24DH19017616395111594701
Evan EdwardsL271B386342336510211433715061
Diego InfanteR24RF437405509317210492614694
Heriberto HernandezR24RF471411528418112524716542
Gionti TurnerR232B262234254460120158063
Mason AuerR23CF520477519217695035192277
Blake RobertsonL231B35932638671225362812011
Nick SchnellL24RF35232040561218332615231
Jalen BattlesR242B3493253463614271711946
Alejandro PieR223B17115617234011398051

Batters – Advanced

PlayerPABAOBPSLGOPS+ISOBABIPDefWARwOBA
Wander Franco493.274.335.457123.184.28953.6.339
Isaac Paredes562.241.336.459124.218.25203.2.343
Randy Arozarena628.264.355.451128.187.329-12.8.349
Yandy Díaz550.287.376.437131.151.31912.7.356
Brandon Lowe487.239.326.464122.225.285-12.6.339
Josh Lowe523.259.321.437113.177.34052.3.325
Dominic Keegan447.226.298.35686.130.29171.7.288
Jonathan Aranda532.253.336.408111.155.317-91.4.325
Jose Siri411.222.268.40789.185.30771.4.289
Kenny Piper341.205.287.36685.162.27161.3.288
Curtis Mead408.249.316.396102.148.29901.1.310
Alex Jackson259.217.286.42198.204.29221.1.303
Luke Raley387.236.324.425111.189.317-11.1.327
Vidal Bruján427.240.305.36791.127.28920.9.295
Taylor Walls403.207.301.33581.128.27130.9.285
Austin Shenton504.225.313.39099.164.312-40.9.308
Kameron Misner497.192.290.32676.134.30970.8.277
Carson Williams533.202.274.36680.163.31420.8.280
Junior Caminero526.248.297.40698.158.292-40.8.303
Manuel Margot391.259.313.38297.123.300-30.7.303
René Pinto336.227.268.39486.167.30900.6.285
Tristan Gray475.202.262.36977.167.28020.5.274
Logan Driscoll368.220.277.33574.116.30320.5.270
Francisco Mejía286.246.284.40393.157.298-30.5.295
Harold Ramírez429.278.319.406105.128.324-40.3.314
Dru Baker470.231.294.34381.112.31240.3.282
Tanner Murray249.238.289.37788.139.30400.3.290
Jeffry Parra193.214.295.31875.104.29100.2.277
Osleivis Basabe512.247.294.34080.093.299-30.2.279
Chandler Simpson513.253.308.29473.041.290-30.0.271
Greg Jones322.201.268.32869.126.34010.0.264
Ruben Cardenas493.224.286.37687.151.2993-0.1.288
Nick Dini241.205.299.32979.124.262-5-0.1.282
Bob Seymour368.228.293.37489.147.3271-0.1.292
Shane Sasaki336.232.295.34081.108.325-5-0.2.281
Tristan Peters458.233.297.34182.108.2902-0.2.282
Ronny Simon516.214.268.34072.127.269-1-0.4.267
Niko Hulsizer429.195.284.34879.153.3162-0.4.279
Billy Hamilton143.169.227.24635.077.2732-0.4.213
Raimel Tapia398.239.293.34180.102.298-2-0.5.279
Erik Ostberg192.203.260.32265.119.288-5-0.6.257
Johan Lopez260.190.270.28158.091.291-4-0.7.250
Matthew Dyer230.189.248.31158.123.3242-0.7.247
Willy Vasquez499.213.261.32766.114.2900-0.8.258
Alexander Ovalles325.208.288.31372.104.289-1-0.8.269
Roberto Alvarez190.222.274.27858.057.2970-0.8.249
Evan Edwards386.190.277.32772.137.2980-0.9.270
Diego Infante437.230.279.35679.126.333-4-1.1.276
Heriberto Hernandez471.204.293.34180.136.308-6-1.1.282
Gionti Turner262.188.257.22640.038.281-1-1.2.224
Mason Auer520.193.256.31061.117.301-4-1.2.250
Blake Robertson359.206.279.30166.095.308-1-1.2.261
Nick Schnell352.175.237.29450.119.3003-1.4.235
Jalen Battles349.194.242.25542.062.2921-1.5.224
Alejandro Pie171.147.216.19218.045.293-4-1.5.192

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player80th BA80th OBP80th SLG80th OPS+80th WAR20th BA20th OBP20th SLG20th OPS+20th WAR
Wander Franco.296.363.5151465.0.243.310.4001002.2
Isaac Paredes.263.363.5091434.5.220.315.4031041.9
Randy Arozarena.288.378.5041474.2.239.330.4011091.4
Yandy Díaz.313.401.4771483.8.261.348.4001141.5
Brandon Lowe.260.350.5301443.8.218.305.4141021.5
Josh Lowe.286.349.4831333.6.233.296.387940.9
Dominic Keegan.251.320.4031052.7.201.272.318700.9
Jonathan Aranda.276.360.4561292.5.228.310.362930.2
Jose Siri.247.291.4641102.5.196.241.360690.3
Kenny Piper.235.319.4221042.2.179.261.317630.4
Curtis Mead.276.341.4421212.1.229.296.351850.3
Alex Jackson.244.313.4881201.7.186.253.355710.2
Luke Raley.263.347.4781311.9.210.299.379930.2
Vidal Bruján.264.331.4141091.9.216.280.333740.0
Taylor Walls.233.325.3871001.9.182.275.294640.0
Austin Shenton.249.339.4381182.0.202.292.34181-0.2
Kameron Misner.217.311.372931.8.166.264.28357-0.3
Carson Williams.227.306.4261032.3.179.252.31662-0.5
Junior Caminero.273.324.4631202.3.223.274.35480-0.5
Manuel Margot.286.339.4241141.5.234.288.34179-0.2
René Pinto.257.296.4461071.4.198.240.34166-0.3
Tristan Gray.227.283.421971.5.179.238.32461-0.6
Logan Driscoll.247.305.375911.2.191.256.29055-0.4
Francisco Mejía.274.314.4611171.3.220.258.35273-0.2
Harold Ramírez.307.348.4451241.4.249.292.36286-0.6
Dru Baker.258.318.385991.3.208.270.30366-0.6
Tanner Murray.264.316.4281090.9.213.268.33470-0.3
Jeffry Parra.241.324.364950.7.181.266.27054-0.3
Osleivis Basabe.274.322.3851011.6.223.270.30665-0.8
Chandler Simpson.280.336.328901.1.226.282.26558-1.1
Greg Jones.228.296.381890.8.171.240.28450-0.8
Ruben Cardenas.249.310.4191061.0.200.256.32666-1.4
Nick Dini.235.330.3861010.6.178.268.27858-0.7
Bob Seymour.254.322.4261080.7.199.265.32566-1.1
Shane Sasaki.262.320.3881010.6.208.266.30462-1.0
Tristan Peters.256.320.378970.7.209.271.30966-1.2
Ronny Simon.240.296.386920.9.191.245.30255-1.5
Niko Hulsizer.219.311.403990.6.167.256.29158-1.6
Billy Hamilton.201.258.297580.0.145.198.20817-0.8
Raimel Tapia.265.319.386980.4.213.266.29762-1.5
Erik Ostberg.237.293.378890.0.174.229.27444-1.1
Johan Lopez.220.304.339810.0.164.242.23639-1.3
Matthew Dyer.219.279.37082-0.1.162.222.26139-1.3
Willy Vasquez.236.287.366840.3.188.239.28451-1.8
Alexander Ovalles.235.314.35590-0.1.186.264.27156-1.4
Roberto Alvarez.247.299.31876-0.4.195.248.24642-1.2
Evan Edwards.217.303.375910.0.163.250.27551-1.9
Diego Infante.256.302.39897-0.1.205.249.31260-2.1
Heriberto Hernandez.227.317.38296-0.2.181.264.29761-2.2
Gionti Turner.219.283.26256-0.7.163.229.19623-1.7
Mason Auer.218.277.353790.0.171.235.26646-2.2
Blake Robertson.227.303.34281-0.6.179.255.26347-2.0
Nick Schnell.204.263.34170-0.6.150.212.24833-2.2
Jalen Battles.218.269.29057-0.8.169.218.22527-2.1
Alejandro Pie.179.248.23738-1.1.123.191.1571-1.9

Batters – Projected Splits

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R
Wander Franco.278.344.465.272.330.454
Isaac Paredes.251.352.470.234.327.452
Randy Arozarena.276.371.475.258.347.440
Yandy Díaz.292.388.458.284.370.426
Brandon Lowe.229.309.440.242.332.472
Josh Lowe.248.314.418.265.325.445
Dominic Keegan.231.307.374.222.292.345
Jonathan Aranda.242.328.388.259.341.419
Jose Siri.225.276.404.220.263.409
Kenny Piper.209.292.383.202.284.356
Curtis Mead.255.328.412.244.306.383
Alex Jackson.222.294.444.213.280.404
Luke Raley.232.330.414.238.321.429
Vidal Bruján.238.310.369.242.301.365
Taylor Walls.211.310.350.205.296.328
Austin Shenton.215.302.356.231.319.407
Kameron Misner.179.275.314.199.299.332
Carson Williams.201.276.370.203.273.363
Junior Caminero.255.312.410.243.287.403
Manuel Margot.272.328.392.252.304.376
René Pinto.231.276.392.224.261.397
Tristan Gray.194.256.352.207.265.380
Logan Driscoll.207.270.306.226.280.350
Francisco Mejía.256.292.411.242.280.399
Harold Ramírez.289.333.408.272.312.405
Dru Baker.231.297.344.230.293.342
Tanner Murray.250.301.406.230.281.356
Jeffry Parra.222.309.319.208.286.317
Osleivis Basabe.250.302.351.244.288.331
Chandler Simpson.240.298.281.258.311.299
Greg Jones.202.272.323.201.265.331
Ruben Cardenas.224.290.388.225.283.365
Nick Dini.207.302.348.203.296.314
Bob Seymour.214.284.347.233.297.386
Shane Sasaki.230.301.344.234.290.337
Tristan Peters.224.286.333.238.303.346
Ronny Simon.207.268.324.218.269.351
Niko Hulsizer.204.302.359.189.270.340
Billy Hamilton.171.227.220.169.227.258
Raimel Tapia.231.276.297.242.299.355
Erik Ostberg.190.242.276.210.269.345
Johan Lopez.189.275.283.192.266.280
Matthew Dyer.192.252.303.186.244.319
Willy Vasquez.219.275.343.209.252.317
Alexander Ovalles.205.282.308.211.292.316
Roberto Alvarez.232.284.280.213.265.277
Evan Edwards.183.268.317.194.283.333
Diego Infante.232.292.351.227.268.359
Heriberto Hernandez.206.303.349.203.286.335
Gionti Turner.188.257.219.188.257.232
Mason Auer.196.263.309.191.251.311
Blake Robertson.196.267.283.209.283.308
Nick Schnell.169.227.270.177.241.303
Jalen Battles.195.250.236.193.237.267
Alejandro Pie.156.217.188.141.216.196

Pitchers – Standard

PlayerTAgeWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSO
Shane McClanahanL271153.132424135.0112471539147
Zach EflinR301273.382726146.7136551624143
Tyler GlasnowR301053.252222119.093431438151
Jeffrey SpringsL31643.31271589.776331225108
Drew RasmussenR28743.28221790.7783382587
Aaron CivaleR29663.942323118.7108521532111
Taj BradleyR23984.183129137.7125642048140
Anthony MolinaR22664.312726123.313259143879
Mason MontgomeryL24554.302727115.0108551449105
Pete FairbanksR30523.0053148.0351641969
Jacob LopezL26444.31262196.08946124195
Cooper CriswellR27554.342615103.710750132581
Zack LittellR28533.86361081.77835111867
Nathan WilesR25544.44252197.310448142166
Brendan McKayL28434.23191772.37034112373
Logan WorkmanR25444.31201979.37938102565
Shane BazR25334.11151461.3552882266
Sean HunleyR24664.652622102.710853152967
Robert StephensonR31423.2358053.0411971769
Colin PocheL30853.5266061.3502472366
Victor CastanedaR25544.50211684.08242113876
Cole WilcoxR24664.63232393.39648133369
Patrick WicklanderL24454.66261696.710150143373
Kevin KellyR26433.6152062.3552551657
Jason AdamR32423.4856054.3402162066
Shawn ArmstrongR33213.6745454.0502261657
Andrew KittredgeR34433.5038243.742175937
Tyler AlexanderL29454.3926969.76934111760
Trevor BrigdenR28444.0439264.7592982666
Ian SeymourL25124.47181856.3522882657
Adam LeverettR25444.48301066.3663382751
Cameron LeonardR24433.6729049.0482051341
Garrett CleavingerL30223.6035140.0291652156
Chris DevenskiR33434.0542446.7452171246
Elvin RodriguezR26464.93181680.38144133270
Ryan BurrR30323.7935140.3381741433
Erasmo RamirezR34344.2838369.3733391754
Chris GauR27434.2537248.7472371847
Keyshawn AskewL24664.8330882.07444114081
John DoxakisL25554.8229884.08545113764
Cole SulserR34334.3034237.7351851639
Trevor KelleyR31224.4738446.3462361738
Jake DiekmanL37224.1355048.0392253257
Antonio JimenezL23464.9031779.08043123764
Victor MunozR23685.09241076.08243102844
Sean HarneyR25224.96281265.36736102549
Colby WhiteR25224.5033334.0301751839
Jack SnyderR25434.1830047.3482261640
Calvin FaucherR28234.7032444.0432362445
Franklin DacostaL24224.8117343.0432361935
Justin SternerR27434.4433050.7472572152
Enmanuel MejiaR25344.5039148.0442462748
Jose A. LopezL25444.8629446.3442562946
Carlos GarciaR25444.8134263.7603483558
Antonio MenendezR25124.7635151.0512762538
Braden BristoR29234.7840152.7492873051
Javy GuerraR28124.7347151.3472752943
Jeff BelgeL26334.7435043.7392362947
Manuel RodriguezR18345.4814544.3482791329
Graham SprakerR29245.4424544.7422783146
Nelson AlvarezR26454.8737044.3402462646
Alfredo ZarragaR23224.7839058.3573192953
Evan ReifertR25235.3027035.7292153045
Graeme StinsonL26345.7229245.7452972739

Pitchers – Advanced

PlayerIPK/9BB/9HR/9BB%K%BABIPERA+FIPERA-WAR
Shane McClanahan135.09.82.61.07.1%26.6%.2801343.43753.3
Zach Eflin146.78.81.51.04.1%24.2%.2951243.30803.1
Tyler Glasnow119.011.42.91.17.7%30.7%.2841293.20772.8
Jeffrey Springs89.710.82.51.26.8%29.4%.2911273.46792.1
Drew Rasmussen90.78.62.50.86.7%23.3%.2811283.38782.0
Aaron Civale118.78.42.41.16.5%22.6%.2821063.99941.9
Taj Bradley137.79.23.11.38.2%24.0%.2851004.241001.8
Anthony Molina123.35.82.81.07.1%14.7%.296984.421031.5
Mason Montgomery115.08.23.81.19.8%21.1%.288984.391031.4
Pete Fairbanks48.012.93.60.89.5%34.5%.3011402.78711.1
Jacob Lopez96.08.93.81.19.9%22.9%.293974.431031.1
Cooper Criswell103.77.02.21.15.7%18.4%.297974.361031.1
Zack Littell81.77.42.01.25.3%19.8%.2801094.14921.1
Nathan Wiles97.36.11.91.35.1%15.9%.292954.481061.0
Brendan McKay72.39.12.91.47.5%23.7%.298994.251011.0
Logan Workman79.37.42.81.17.4%19.2%.292974.351031.0
Shane Baz61.39.73.21.28.4%25.2%.2921024.07980.9
Sean Hunley102.75.92.51.36.6%15.3%.285904.961110.9
Robert Stephenson53.011.72.91.27.8%31.7%.2811303.39770.8
Colin Poche61.39.73.41.09.0%25.8%.2741193.81840.8
Victor Castaneda84.08.14.11.210.3%20.6%.295934.611070.8
Cole Wilcox93.36.73.21.38.1%17.0%.289914.871100.8
Patrick Wicklander96.76.83.11.37.8%17.3%.293904.811110.8
Kevin Kelly62.38.22.30.76.3%22.3%.2841163.58860.8
Jason Adam54.310.93.31.09.0%29.7%.2661213.75830.7
Shawn Armstrong54.09.52.71.07.1%25.3%.3031153.64870.7
Andrew Kittredge43.77.61.91.05.0%20.4%.2891203.80830.6
Tyler Alexander69.77.82.21.45.8%20.6%.287964.401050.6
Trevor Brigden64.79.23.61.19.4%23.9%.2911044.17960.5
Ian Seymour56.39.14.21.310.6%23.3%.289944.681070.5
Adam Leverett66.36.93.71.19.3%17.5%.289944.781070.5
Cameron Leonard49.07.52.40.96.3%19.7%.2971143.70870.5
Garrett Cleavinger40.012.64.71.112.4%32.9%.2791173.88860.5
Chris Devenski46.78.92.31.46.2%23.6%.2951044.13960.5
Elvin Rodriguez80.37.83.61.59.1%19.9%.292855.001170.4
Ryan Burr40.37.43.10.98.1%19.1%.2861113.95900.4
Erasmo Ramirez69.37.02.21.25.7%18.2%.300984.291020.3
Chris Gau48.78.73.31.38.5%22.3%.294994.431010.3
Keyshawn Askew82.08.94.41.211.1%22.4%.284874.961150.3
John Doxakis84.06.94.01.29.9%17.2%.289875.081150.3
Cole Sulser37.79.33.81.29.8%23.9%.297984.261020.2
Trevor Kelley46.37.43.31.28.5%19.0%.290944.531060.2
Jake Diekman48.010.76.00.914.7%26.3%.2881024.48980.2
Antonio Jimenez79.07.34.21.410.5%18.2%.289865.171170.2
Victor Munoz76.05.23.31.28.3%13.0%.288825.151210.2
Sean Harney65.36.83.41.48.8%17.2%.286855.211180.2
Colby White34.010.34.81.311.8%25.7%.291934.641070.2
Jack Snyder47.37.63.01.17.8%19.5%.2981004.291000.1
Calvin Faucher44.09.24.91.211.9%22.4%.306894.691120.1
Franklin Dacosta43.07.34.01.310.0%18.4%.289874.981150.1
Justin Sterner50.79.23.71.29.4%23.3%.292954.421060.1
Enmanuel Mejia48.09.05.11.112.3%21.9%.290934.691070.1
Jose A. Lopez46.38.95.61.213.7%21.7%.297865.091160.1
Carlos Garcia63.78.24.91.112.3%20.4%.289874.951140.0
Antonio Menendez51.06.74.41.110.9%16.5%.288885.00113-0.1
Braden Bristo52.78.75.11.212.7%21.6%.290884.93114-0.1
Javy Guerra51.37.55.10.912.6%18.7%.282894.83113-0.1
Jeff Belge43.79.76.01.214.4%23.3%.289894.95113-0.1
Manuel Rodriguez44.35.92.61.86.7%15.0%.281775.53131-0.2
Graham Spraker44.79.36.21.614.9%22.1%.286775.81130-0.2
Nelson Alvarez44.39.35.31.212.7%22.4%.288865.04116-0.2
Alfredo Zarraga58.38.24.51.411.0%20.1%.289885.09114-0.2
Evan Reifert35.711.47.61.317.4%26.2%.286795.58126-0.3
Graeme Stinson45.77.75.31.412.4%17.9%.286735.97136-0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R80th WAR20th WAR80th ERA20th ERA
Shane McClanahan.234.283.360.217.275.3584.12.42.713.60
Zach Eflin.250.293.422.232.257.3464.02.32.903.92
Tyler Glasnow.210.274.350.210.268.3583.61.72.634.05
Jeffrey Springs.242.296.384.216.269.3782.81.22.614.21
Drew Rasmussen.227.291.327.227.273.3612.71.42.653.91
Aaron Civale.225.289.376.248.298.4032.61.13.464.59
Taj Bradley.249.327.430.225.280.3822.90.83.524.85
Anthony Molina.274.336.439.263.307.4042.10.73.894.84
Mason Montgomery.226.307.338.250.328.4202.10.53.834.96
Pete Fairbanks.205.290.325.194.276.3121.70.42.074.66
Jacob Lopez.250.323.379.236.329.4061.80.43.795.05
Cooper Criswell.280.338.476.244.302.3711.80.53.814.89
Zack Littell.256.310.421.239.277.4021.60.53.324.56
Nathan Wiles.270.311.438.267.304.4431.60.43.935.09
Brendan McKay.235.290.388.254.315.4371.50.33.675.09
Logan Workman.274.343.433.234.287.3961.40.43.804.89
Shane Baz.229.303.394.238.312.3891.40.43.464.73
Sean Hunley.275.335.466.255.316.4121.40.14.195.27
Robert Stephenson.209.280.363.208.267.3681.40.22.464.32
Colin Poche.200.278.329.225.298.3751.50.12.834.32
Victor Castaneda.266.350.430.235.313.4001.30.24.045.09
Cole Wilcox.268.341.481.253.319.3821.30.24.175.18
Patrick Wicklander.246.314.389.271.333.4611.30.14.175.28
Kevin Kelly.257.325.410.211.274.3011.30.22.974.39
Jason Adam.187.295.319.211.293.3581.30.02.724.81
Shawn Armstrong.233.302.360.246.301.4021.20.22.854.67
Andrew Kittredge.239.301.403.252.284.3881.00.22.924.36
Tyler Alexander.225.276.352.262.307.4601.10.03.715.27
Trevor Brigden.239.320.416.235.309.3681.1-0.13.364.94
Ian Seymour.235.321.324.242.333.4500.90.03.945.19
Adam Leverett.246.336.369.261.335.4350.90.04.045.09
Cameron Leonard.258.310.387.245.286.3880.90.13.024.39
Garrett Cleavinger.184.298.347.204.313.3570.9-0.12.814.70
Chris Devenski.239.295.409.255.304.4360.9-0.13.325.03
Elvin Rodriguez.261.342.444.253.325.4481.0-0.24.405.54
Ryan Burr.254.329.423.235.283.3530.70.03.224.65
Erasmo Ramirez.269.324.415.260.306.4320.8-0.13.704.87
Chris Gau.255.327.426.240.308.4060.8-0.13.524.99
Keyshawn Askew.208.330.292.248.350.4501.0-0.44.235.51
John Doxakis.241.323.384.265.356.4430.8-0.34.315.43
Cole Sulser.229.299.386.253.337.4270.6-0.23.545.46
Trevor Kelley.228.307.392.272.333.4270.6-0.23.825.24
Jake Diekman.231.359.308.209.338.3830.8-0.53.155.77
Antonio Jimenez.242.330.389.264.347.4580.7-0.44.355.53
Victor Munoz.289.363.493.253.320.3890.6-0.34.615.64
Sean Harney.246.338.429.273.340.4470.6-0.24.405.51
Colby White.234.347.406.227.316.4090.4-0.23.815.36
Jack Snyder.264.330.440.250.305.3960.5-0.23.514.85
Calvin Faucher.263.364.474.240.327.3750.5-0.34.015.66
Franklin Dacosta.226.317.321.267.348.4740.4-0.34.255.49
Justin Sterner.253.340.462.229.305.3620.5-0.43.705.19
Enmanuel Mejia.259.370.447.220.313.3500.4-0.43.985.29
Jose A. Lopez.246.377.368.244.352.4230.4-0.44.245.75
Carlos Garcia.261.369.429.228.327.3700.4-0.64.225.50
Antonio Menendez.263.360.463.248.333.3620.2-0.44.315.33
Braden Bristo.229.336.365.252.352.4390.4-0.64.075.69
Javy Guerra.258.356.438.222.341.3240.2-0.54.215.49
Jeff Belge.232.348.321.234.348.4410.3-0.53.995.47
Manuel Rodriguez.276.330.529.267.316.4560.2-0.44.846.01
Graham Spraker.247.384.469.239.349.4240.2-0.74.716.51
Nelson Alvarez.244.366.385.228.339.4130.2-0.64.305.67
Alfredo Zarraga.255.341.436.246.338.4240.2-0.84.205.54
Evan Reifert.233.410.383.203.355.3920.0-0.74.456.29
Graeme Stinson.203.347.305.275.393.492-0.1-0.95.036.57

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

source

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