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2024 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

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For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Toronto Blue Jays.


None of the projections here will blow your socks off, but on the plus side, very few of them will get your socks wet (and then you’re walking around all day with your feet wet and clammy, and every time you step it makes a little squishing sound, and you think there’s a bit of dirt in there and you’d like to take off your shoes, but that’s why you’re not allowed in Kroger anymore, so you can’t). If social media is any indication, Matt Chapman might be underrated at this point. He was terrible in the second half, but I haven’t found that to be very predictive, and overall, he still gave the Blue Jays about four wins that they now have to replace. Right now, third base, along with left field and designated hitter, looks to be an amalgamation of role players, though I don’t expect that situation to persist through Opening Day, if for no other reason than active rosters aren’t large enough for Toronto to start the season with all three of those unwieldy chimeras.

Bo Bichette is terrific and the Jays ought to extend him soon, lest he take $300 million to go somewhere else in a few years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still a bit of an enigma. Indeed, he has turned out to be one of the harder players to project, which I wouldn’t have expected when he was a prospect. His upside is still there, but you can’t get around the fact that he’s had one awesome season, one solid season, and a whole lot of meh. ZiPS still thinks he’ll be solid, but practically nothing between a one- and six-win season would surprise me at this point. The power numbers do suggest he should have hit for more thump in 2023 than he actually did.

Daulton Varsho’s fine, though probably not good enough to silence the second-guessing about the Gabriel Moreno trade. George Springer showed some significant signs of decline in 2023, a trend that is likely to continue as he turned 34 late in the season. ZiPS is optimistic about Davis Schneider being fine at second base, though the computer isn’t exactly banking on another 1.000 OPS (and neither should you).


With a couple obvious places to improve the offense, I would not be surprised to see the Blue Jays take a low-key approach when it comes to the rotation, or even stand pat. Hyun Jin Ryu is a free agent, but the Jays only had him for part of the season anyway, and the four healthy returning starters — Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Yusei Kikuchi — all have rather unsurprising projections. They could still trade him this offseason, but it’s probably too early to write off Alek Manoah. 2023 was an unforgettable season for the right-hander, in the sense that it would haunt your dreams no matter what ancient curse or potion you conjured to try to forget it, but the fact remains that he was really good in 2022, even when you adjust for some of the smoke and mirrors around his 2.24 ERA that year. Dependable pitchers are always hard to find and expensive to keep, and pretty much any pitcher who is only a year removed from relevance should have a lot of team interest as long as their arm is physically attached.

Outside of Jordan Romano, I’m not sure I’d call much of the bullpen exciting, but it is relatively deep — ZiPS goes seven or eight relievers until it gets to the below-average guys. Jays relievers were ninth in WAR in 2023 and sixth in FIP, but you rarely saw anyone talk about the solidity of the unit. Now, I suppose some of that is to be expected — from my unscientific survey, about 95% of fans think the primary reason their favorite team isn’t performing better is because the bullpen is the worst one ever put together. But in any case, Toronto’s is a rather stable group that doesn’t need a whole lot of tinkering this winter. Save that cash for Shohei Ohtani! Oh, wait, I’m an Orioles fan, so I’d prefer if the Jays did not do that. If you’re looking for a ZiPS Special in the reliever category, Connor Cooke, a fastball-slider reliever with a changeup-in-progress who struggled a bit in his brief Triple-A run but dominated in Double-A, may be the pick for you.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. The font size of the player names is roughly proportional to their projected depth chart playing time.

Batters – Standard

Bo BichetteR26SS65761490179342249337127114
Matt ChapmanR313B5795017512028225716616432
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R251B6595838916230131100669752
Alejandro KirkR25C449395431041901250464901
Davis SchneiderR252B502430629925219686113462
George SpringerR34RF56750777129232217251107123
Danny JansenR29C29726240641501547275901
Daulton VarshoL27LF54149072118243257742124135
Kevin KiermaierL34CF35932646801746392783102
Spencer HorwitzL261B50744356113281958559342
Brandon BeltL361B366312467416117464811610
Ernie ClementR28SS3613334290182640193452
Mason McCoyR29SS4724295390204105136150132
Santiago EspinalR292B3573254087190435275243
Rafael LantiguaR26LF5284676811330185553116147
Cavan BiggioL292B3683155171161937469651
Alan RodenL24LF516451701142316614676123
Nathan LukesL29RF3553254286211541246042
Addison BargerL24RF4804345710425114603912043
Leo JimenezR23SS3843365079152546297842
Whit MerrifieldR352B5565126612926110643492216
Damiano PalmegianiR243B5364755810126117704616331
Orelvis MartinezR22SS5504945710924123724415621
Tanner MorrisL262B4203684287151539459211
Cam EdenR26CF422378498116154529127293
Otto LopezR25SS434398531001743412779114
Devonte BrownR24CF4053554772151124743140101
Jamie RitchieR31C261228335491123295211
Tyler HeinemanB33C209182204071116194331
Michael TurconiL252B42437053821737424610631
Luis De Los SantosR263B40036740791917412410632
Rob BrantlyL34C2292032250101226153601
Cade DoughtyR233B414378488015013552414522
Josh KasevichR23SS3723393985150233254852
Phil ClarkeL26C3082723563120431265521
Zac CookL26CF30026137481218421612782
Riley TirottaR253B35331435641337353212264
Steward BerroaB25CF420368547616463839129267
Stevie BermanR29C190164143480317204801
Max McDowellR30C265229234480226237611
Zach BrittonL25DH2712323147131530328931
LJ TalleyL271B3413083369122632297841
Bryce ArnoldR222B155138173080213153821
Peyton WilliamsL231B3323013267111940239611
Garrett SpainL23RF36133134661627372511933
Jeffrey WehlerR253B208187213873424196865
Dylan RockR25LF148134192550416115431
Alex De JesusR223B422378527916410453714232
Karl EllisonR29C128120619611885101
PK MorrisL251B32928930541316303411711
Trevor SchweckeR26RF36032638711526392710253
Gabriel MartinezR21LF454426531021811049239111
Miguel HiraldoR232B412383408119284322138114
Andres SosaR26C2632252647150229226821
Dasan BrownR22CF461416558715264629143148
Blake RobertsonL231B35932539681216372911611
Kekai RiosR27C210193163770318137001
Rainer NunezR231B4844554710418111522413501
Sebastian EspinoR24RF30328327521326291413822

Batters – Advanced

Bo Bichette657.292.333.471122.179.335-33.9.345120
Matt Chapman579.240.333.453117.214.30483.6.33983
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.659.278.357.492134.214.288-33.0.362113
Alejandro Kirk449.263.345.403109.139.27562.9.32855
Davis Schneider502.230.333.430111.200.28962.9.33274
George Springer567.254.328.432110.178.28592.5.32997
Danny Jansen297.244.327.473120.229.26112.0.34241
Daulton Varsho541.241.304.455109.214.27371.9.32496
Kevin Kiermaier359.245.306.37790.132.312111.8.29859
Spencer Horwitz507.255.343.384103.129.30581.6.32167
Brandon Belt366.237.344.458122.221.318-11.3.34651
Ernie Clement361.270.311.39095.120.28711.1.30551
Mason McCoy472.210.272.34571.135.29791.1.27067
Santiago Espinal357.268.327.36393.095.30931.1.30448
Rafael Lantigua528.242.321.36291.120.30671.0.30285
Cavan Biggio368.225.332.36896.143.295-20.9.31149
Alan Roden516.253.343.34895.095.29320.9.31179
Nathan Lukes355.265.321.38296.117.31260.9.30749
Addison Barger480.240.308.39996.159.30050.9.30863
Leo Jimenez384.235.323.33685.101.292-10.8.29745
Whit Merrifield556.252.299.36585.113.29000.7.289100
Damiano Palmegiani536.213.295.37987.166.285-10.6.29559
Orelvis Martinez550.221.289.41393.192.273-90.6.30263
Tanner Morris420.236.325.32383.087.30300.5.29241
Cam Eden422.214.287.30265.087.30940.5.26592
Otto Lopez434.251.305.33780.085.307-10.5.28365
Devonte Brown405.203.294.35280.149.29600.4.28657
Jamie Ritchie261.237.330.29878.061.303-10.4.28825
Tyler Heineman209.220.302.28666.066.28320.3.26922
Michael Turconi424.222.311.34183.119.292-30.2.29146
Luis De Los Santos400.215.273.33068.114.28360.2.26640
Rob Brantly229.246.328.33586.089.291-40.2.29923
Cade Doughty414.212.275.35475.143.30510.0.27742
Josh Kasevich372.251.309.31375.062.287-40.0.27944
Phil Clarke308.232.316.32079.088.277-7-0.1.28832
Zac Cook300.184.276.33069.146.3170-0.1.27141
Riley Tirotta353.204.283.33171.127.3081-0.1.27343
Steward Berroa420.207.285.32169.114.300-1-0.1.27089
Stevie Berman190.207.302.31172.104.274-3-0.2.27716
Max McDowell265.192.295.25356.061.2780-0.2.25720
Zach Britton271.203.314.33281.129.3040-0.2.29031
LJ Talley341.224.293.33475.110.2813-0.3.27939
Bryce Arnold155.217.303.31975.101.286-4-0.3.28118
Peyton Williams332.223.289.35579.133.2962-0.3.28333
Garrett Spain361.199.263.32363.124.2887-0.4.25935
Jeffrey Wehler208.203.279.33771.134.296-2-0.5.27232
Dylan Rock148.187.264.31361.127.2760-0.5.25817
Alex De Jesus422.209.282.35276.143.305-5-0.6.27744
Karl Ellison128.158.211.25028.092.265-1-0.8.2067
PK Morris329.187.274.30161.114.2894-0.8.25926
Trevor Schwecke360.218.286.33172.113.298-2-0.9.27342
Gabriel Martinez454.239.282.35777.117.283-2-0.9.27945
Miguel Hiraldo412.211.258.33464.123.308-4-0.9.25857
Andres Sosa263.209.310.30273.093.290-13-1.0.28026
Dasan Brown461.209.279.29862.089.303-2-1.0.26066
Kekai Rios210.192.252.27548.083.283-9-1.4.23714
Rainer Nunez484.229.271.34571.116.3010-1.4.26843
Sebastian Espino303.184.226.30747.124.3310-1.6.23224

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player80th BA80th OBP80th SLG80th OPS+80th WAR20th BA20th OBP20th SLG20th OPS+20th WAR
Bo Bichette.319.360.5311445.8.265.305.4271022.3
Matt Chapman.265.356.5061364.8.216.309.399972.2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr..306.385.5461574.7.254.332.4381151.3
Alejandro Kirk.292.374.4541314.2.235.316.351891.9
Davis Schneider.252.357.4831284.0.210.309.383931.8
George Springer.277.350.4751273.6.229.302.385911.0
Danny Jansen.270.356.5331422.7.218.301.410981.2
Daulton Varsho.268.328.5091303.
Kevin Kiermaier.274.332.4251102.
Spencer Horwitz.280.367.4281212.6.228.316.350860.5
Brandon Belt.264.374.5211472.4.213.320.3931010.4
Ernie Clement.302.338.4371152.
Mason McCoy.237.300.398932.
Santiago Espinal.296.354.4001091.8.242.304.325760.4
Rafael Lantigua.267.345.4031082.
Cavan Biggio.254.360.4241151.9.198.301.322740.0
Alan Roden.279.368.3911132.0.228.316.31077-0.1
Nathan Lukes.295.351.4281161.
Addison Barger.265.332.4471162.
Leo Jimenez.259.348.3821011.6.209.300.300690.0
Whit Merrifield.277.325.4031011.
Damiano Palmegiani.238.318.4321071.
Orelvis Martinez.246.317.4741172.
Tanner Morris.263.350.359971.
Cam Eden.240.311.340811.
Otto Lopez.279.332.379981.
Devonte Brown.228.318.396961.
Jamie Ritchie.264.358.335950.9.205.300.26261-0.2
Tyler Heineman.251.332.327850.
Michael Turconi.245.336.384991.
Luis De Los Santos.242.299.386881.
Rob Brantly.276.354.3741060.7.216.304.29569-0.3
Cade Doughty.234.299.404930.
Josh Kasevich.277.335.349900.
Phil Clarke.262.347.366990.
Zac Cook.213.301.386900.
Riley Tirotta.233.309.381900.
Steward Berroa.231.311.366850.
Stevie Berman.241.335.364940.
Max McDowell.226.328.298770.
Zach Britton.229.341.3801000.
LJ Talley.253.322.386950.
Bryce Arnold.258.347.3771020.
Peyton Williams.248.316.402980.
Garrett Spain.227.289.364800.
Jeffrey Wehler.228.304.390900.
Dylan Rock.217.298.36481-
Alex De Jesus.239.312.406970.
Karl Ellison.192.244.30353-
PK Morris.211.303.34779-
Trevor Schwecke.239.309.37388-
Gabriel Martinez.267.311.406980.
Miguel Hiraldo.236.283.373820.
Andres Sosa.237.338.34892-
Dasan Brown.231.299.33877-
Kekai Rios.222.287.31769-
Rainer Nunez.250.292.38488-
Sebastian Espino.214.258.35568-

Batters – Projected Splits

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R
Bo Bichette.302.350.500.287.326.458
Matt Chapman.247.343.468.236.329.447
Vladimir Guerrero Jr..275.362.480.279.354.498
Alejandro Kirk.264.354.400.263.340.404
Davis Schneider.228.336.429.232.330.431
George Springer.257.341.434.254.322.431
Danny Jansen.242.330.453.246.324.485
Daulton Varsho.240.298.419.241.307.468
Kevin Kiermaier.239.292.341.248.312.391
Spencer Horwitz.239.326.352.264.353.401
Brandon Belt.226.333.417.241.348.474
Ernie Clement.273.320.388.268.304.392
Mason McCoy.214.284.358.206.262.333
Santiago Espinal.276.338.386.263.319.348
Rafael Lantigua.245.332.365.240.312.360
Cavan Biggio.224.330.341.226.332.378
Alan Roden.241.338.331.258.345.355
Nathan Lukes.250.307.352.274.330.401
Addison Barger.233.300.374.244.313.413
Leo Jimenez.239.329.341.232.319.333
Whit Merrifield.258.304.374.249.296.361
Damiano Palmegiani.216.306.395.211.288.368
Orelvis Martinez.227.302.435.216.280.397
Tanner Morris.227.316.311.241.329.329
Cam Eden.217.291.331.213.285.281
Otto Lopez.259.319.344.244.292.330
Devonte Brown.209.311.374.199.283.338
Jamie Ritchie.240.345.310.234.317.289
Tyler Heineman.222.310.
Michael Turconi.215.309.327.224.312.346
Luis De Los Santos.222.280.341.210.266.320
Rob Brantly.220.313.271.257.333.361
Cade Doughty.215.280.356.210.272.354
Josh Kasevich.254.318.321.249.304.307
Phil Clarke.222.307.289.236.320.335
Zac Cook.182.287.313.185.269.340
Riley Tirotta.202.288.341.205.280.324
Steward Berroa.203.284.319.209.285.322
Stevie Berman.213.318.307.202.287.315
Max McDowell.
Zach Britton.198.310.314.205.316.342
LJ Talley.212.280.319.231.301.344
Bryce Arnold.228.323.333.210.289.309
Peyton Williams.209.274.314.228.295.372
Garrett Spain.186.259.304.205.265.332
Jeffrey Wehler.200.286.373.205.274.313
Dylan Rock.196.274.339.179.256.295
Alex De Jesus.213.295.361.205.270.344
Karl Ellison.
PK Morris.
Trevor Schwecke.216.289.321.219.284.339
Gabriel Martinez.239.289.361.240.277.354
Miguel Hiraldo.216.267.335.208.251.333
Andres Sosa.215.321.312.205.303.295
Dasan Brown.
Kekai Rios.
Rainer Nunez.235.284.342.224.261.347
Sebastian Espino.185.233.323.182.220.296

Pitchers – Advanced

Kevin Gausman169.
Chris Bassitt171.
José Berríos170.
Yusei Kikuchi135.
Alek Manoah120.
Ricky Tiedemann79.310.
Jordan Romano58.711.
Hyun Jin Ryu86.
Bowden Francis87.
Chad Dallas104.
Erik Swanson60.
Mitch White80.
Chad Green43.310.
Zach Thompson94.
Tim Mayza54.
Hayden Juenger77.
Trevor Richards66.311.53.91.410.3%30.1%.2861024.01980.5
Paxton Schultz93.
Connor Cooke48.
Adam Macko79.
Trenton Wallace59.
Jordan Hicks62.310.
Brandon Eisert62.
Wes Parsons76.
Yimi García57.
Luis Quinones74.
Génesis Cabrera60.
Anthony Bass42.
Hagen Danner39.
Jay Jackson47.
Matt Wisler53.
Nick Fraze46.
Mason Fluharty54.
Alejandro Melean62.
T.J. Brock49.
Nate Pearson57.
Trent Palmer53.
Michael Dominguez85.
CJ Van Eyk52.
Rowan Wick48.
Abdiel Mendoza61.
Andrew Bash73.
Sean Mellen40.
Ryan Boyer30.
Brendon Little59.
Luke Bard34.
Matt Peacock53.
Jimmy Robbins76.
Yosver Zulueta56.
Trevor Clifton50.
Adam Cimber47.
Zach Pop51.
Gabe Klobosits26.
Grayson Thurman42.
Gabriel Ponce54.
Jackson Rees27.
Julian Fernández40.
Naswell Paulino63.
Paul Fry46.
Adrian Hernandez47.
Jimmy Burnette43.
Troy Watson54.
Fitz Stadler38.
Parker Caracci34.
Jol Concepcion41.

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R80th WAR20th WAR80th ERA20th ERA
Kevin Gausman.229.278.377.253.293.4194.62.32.874.14
Chris Bassitt.233.299.404.250.301.3853.92.03.334.41
José Berríos.250.315.442.245.293.3883.31.23.654.83
Yusei Kikuchi.209.275.357.267.340.4652.40.43.845.27
Alek Manoah.266.355.456.204.279.3332.20.53.905.15
Ricky Tiedemann.223.321.394.223.321.3641.80.53.384.83
Jordan Romano.206.277.353.229.303.3981.80.22.594.68
Hyun Jin Ryu.271.308.435.266.309.4521.50.43.815.17
Bowden Francis.253.326.432.227.303.3981.50.33.825.06
Chad Dallas.265.351.420.245.329.4181.40.24.325.30
Erik Swanson.239.298.398.217.278.3741.40.12.884.86
Mitch White.247.325.387.261.320.4361.20.13.985.32
Chad Green.237.284.421.225.271.3711.20.12.584.96
Zach Thompson.272.350.456.264.319.4211.20.14.355.39
Tim Mayza.215.267.329.258.322.4171.
Hayden Juenger.228.319.379.260.331.4221.20.13.804.86
Trevor Richards.212.302.372.221.296.4041.2-
Paxton Schultz.274.367.441.255.326.4271.0-0.24.465.54
Connor Cooke.244.316.407.224.306.3781.
Adam Macko.245.339.404.251.352.4281.0-0.14.475.62
Trenton Wallace.227.325.318.250.354.4450.80.04.345.54
Jordan Hicks.255.365.415.194.295.3181.0-0.43.545.24
Brandon Eisert.241.309.345.253.312.4370.9-0.23.455.05
Wes Parsons.255.350.412.260.339.4590.9-0.24.445.69
Yimi García.237.314.441.242.305.3831.0-
Luis Quinones.237.342.430.252.350.4060.8-0.34.405.68
Génesis Cabrera.240.333.360.234.315.4110.9-0.23.544.92
Anthony Bass.247.321.411.225.286.3930.7-0.12.984.93
Hagen Danner.247.321.438.228.295.3540.7-
Jay Jackson.241.300.398.232.280.4240.8-0.32.945.58
Matt Wisler.266.358.479.239.293.3890.7-0.33.655.42
Nick Fraze.261.363.455.260.333.4270.5-0.14.525.62
Mason Fluharty.225.291.352.261.333.4370.6-0.33.655.11
Alejandro Melean.234.333.369.281.364.4590.6-0.24.445.51
T.J. Brock.233.330.400.227.315.3710.6-0.23.535.01
Nate Pearson.240.350.423.221.305.3720.7-0.33.735.16
Trent Palmer.258.376.443.231.344.3700.5-0.34.736.10
Michael Dominguez.281.397.490.223.335.3800.8-0.54.755.92
CJ Van Eyk.280.376.480.248.325.4040.5-0.34.746.08
Rowan Wick.256.350.400.237.312.4330.6-0.33.705.41
Abdiel Mendoza.315.405.528.235.314.3600.4-0.34.725.77
Andrew Bash.275.373.486.253.341.3900.5-0.54.665.79
Sean Mellen.255.356.392.257.349.4500.4-
Ryan Boyer.263.354.456.226.310.3710.3-0.33.685.44
Brendon Little.234.318.351.270.361.4590.5-
Luke Bard.274.366.468.243.321.4050.3-
Matt Peacock.293.377.485.261.317.4260.3-0.44.585.75
Jimmy Robbins.250.364.402.265.376.4550.5-0.54.996.18
Yosver Zulueta.233.375.437.250.358.3880.4-0.64.596.15
Trevor Clifton.276.374.469.265.356.4410.3-
Adam Cimber.268.338.493.267.312.4140.2-
Zach Pop.258.333.473.257.328.3850.3-
Gabe Klobosits.269.367.442.269.350.4810.0-0.44.705.91
Grayson Thurman.269.367.436.261.330.4350.1-0.44.565.59
Gabriel Ponce.265.392.469.225.341.3780.2-0.64.535.83
Jackson Rees.245.375.453.241.344.3890.1-0.54.446.49
Julian Fernández.264.354.417.256.337.4530.1-0.64.395.73
Naswell Paulino.256.366.423.276.371.4660.2-0.74.956.23
Paul Fry.243.354.414.243.351.3960.2-0.84.426.46
Adrian Hernandez.241.383.391.232.351.4320.1-0.74.505.98
Jimmy Burnette.204.348.296.239.373.4500.2-
Troy Watson.257.363.476.277.359.4110.0-0.84.966.17
Fitz Stadler.257.389.459.256.372.4230.0-
Parker Caracci.270.395.460.250.353.417-0.2-0.84.926.61
Jol Concepcion.239.413.408.269.410.484-0.3-1.05.707.44

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


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