HomeTrending MLB News2024 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

2024 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

Published on

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Angels.


Let’s get the good news out of the way first: The 2023 Angels, at 73–89, finished with far fewer wins than you would expect from the available talent. This year, they ought to get a full slate of games from Zach Neto, whom ZiPS likes very much and sees significant growth from, and Nolan Schanuel, whom both ZiPS and Steamer like going forward. It’s also likely that Logan O’Hoppe, recovered from a torn labrum that required surgery, beats his 51 games played last season. Even Anthony Rendon has a chance to be significantly healthier in 2024. Mike Trout only managed 82 games last season, and while we should no longer be bullish about his health, he certainly has a fighter’s chance at playing more often. ZiPS thinks Michael Stefanic would be a good stopgap option at second — kind of the Angels’ version of peak Joey Wendle, if they let him play 120 games and see what happens. I’d be tempted to go with Stefanic at second, Luis Rengifo at third, and then Rendon as the primary DH until he shows that he can actually remain healthy, leaving Brandon Drury in a kind of supersub role.

But now we have the bad news: The 2023 Angels may have played under their abilities, but that team also had Shohei Ohtani, so the loss of that production will cancel out a good chunk of the bounceback. The depth chart doesn’t look so bad, but it’s also paper-thin, with ZiPS having little faith in most of the emergency fill-ins. O’Hoppe’s contributions get held back by Matt Thaiss, and the numbers at first take a hit from the projected playing time for Drury and Evan White.

Also, help isn’t on the way with one noticeable exception: Kyren Paris, one of only seven hitters in the entire organization that projects to at least five WAR over the next five years (and all of them have already been mentioned). ZiPS agrees with my colleague Eric Longenhagen, who has the Angels with baseball’s worst farm system. That’s a big issue for a disappointing team that has to replace a generational talent.


ZiPS doesn’t see the rotation as a serious problem, but it doesn’t see it as a notable strength, either. Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, and Griffin Canning are a relatively dependable top three and are all competent innings-eaters, but the computer doesn’t see much high-end upside, and neither do I. ZiPS projects a better season coming up from Tyler Anderson, whom I always overrate because his delivery destroys my timing in MLB: The Show, but it’s not like he’s going to wake up tomorrow and become Tom Glavine. And while ZiPS likes Chase Silseth fine and thinks that there’s a bigger number of capable emergency fill-ins should the Angels get hit by the injury bug again, there’s just not a lot of high potential or pizazz there.

The bullpen, on the other hand, looks like a disaster if you buy what ZiPS is selling. Not a single projected reliever has an ERA on the good side of four. Most of this group is in their 30s, and two of the actually young options, José Soriano and Ben Joyce, have walk issues to iron out.

Right now, the Angels look like a .500 team, which is actually a significant step up from last season. But the ceiling of this group is low without the benefit of the floor being high. Unless they make some huge moves on the dwindling crop left out there in free agency, I’m not sure how you get a 95-win season out of this team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard

Mike TroutR32CF382323588317121605110721
Logan O’HoppeR24C39734749891112156408422
Zach NetoR23SS36531651781701347288661
Michael StefanicR282B51045155123171653465644
Taylor WardR30LF438383631012211655459342
Nolan SchanuelL221B467400721021921656588221
Luis RengifoB272B491446581151841458368874
Gio UrshelaR323B392364421021821046227221
Charles LeblancR282B422378488916312544013042
Trey CabbageL271B47643458101192227234184152
Brandon DruryR312B4914535611125219702812312
Anthony RendonR343B2331982752120628283811
C.J. CronR341B434390529518118593411501
Kyren ParisR22SS55848669101212115760186253
Mickey MoniakL26CF4484215010018518582014063
Taylor JonesR303B3112774063160938288521
Jo AdellR25RF448408589319222673214962
Kevin PadloR273B420373518118112464112562
Brett PhillipsL30CF339291445373103439137102
Matt ThaissL29C37132242711211040429321
Eduardo EscobarB353B429396489316415522910211
Evan WhiteR281B163148193260723134911
Gustavo CamperoB26C2322112947112530145493
Randal GrichukR32LF4864515810921216552811322
Jared OlivaR28RF35232242751546402293124
Mike MoustakasL353B33130033691501036228111
Livan SotoL24SS516462541001536454513743
Zach HumphreysR26C2582262748101323267153
Chris OkeyR29C224205214562422136411
Willie CalhounL29RF2932643266111834254201
David CalabreseL21CF54449156971949494518195
Chad WallachR32C291260275191830259311
Eric WagamanR261B236216224991624176041
Adrian PlacenciaB212B5474786194172115158194127
Bryce TeodosioR25CF413376417113174127167105
Jordyn AdamsR24CF494450569415494835167244
Gabe MatthewsL261B422363397215010484514011
Daniel MurphyL391B182168184170215132901
Jared WalshL301B427384448317116523714411
Aaron WhitefieldR27LF348319386511253224124176
Anthony MulrineR26C196170153160116145601
Jack LópezR31SS34732337701427371610973
Ryan AguilarL291B3112703547716303412541
Orlando MartinezL26DH467432481022139492711643
Tucker FlintL23RF50544352912039564617033
Kevin MaitanB243B32029526571014292011811
D’Shawn KnowlesB23CF512466549518434032161166
Myles EmmersonR26C260240244380115189111
Preston PalmeiroL29LF3613303471161532278821
Werner BlakelyL223B372332385913253434159121
Arol VeraB21SS570524571061524422917684
Sonny DiChiaraR241B3182812352904292812701
Joe StewartR26LF478448449314334023154205

Batters – Advanced

Mike Trout382.257.366.511139.254.318-12.8.37161
Logan O’Hoppe397.256.345.476124.219.281-72.1.35358
Zach Neto365.247.338.424109.177.300-11.9.33347
Michael Stefanic510.273.352.35597.082.30121.7.31659
Taylor Ward438.264.347.452119.188.31001.6.34662
Nolan Schanuel467.255.360.433118.178.285-21.5.34763
Luis Rengifo491.258.318.410100.152.294-11.4.31761
Gio Urshela392.280.321.423104.143.32601.3.32050
Charles Leblanc422.235.313.38993.153.32611.1.30748
Trey Cabbage476.233.293.43898.205.34640.9.31360
Brandon Drury491.245.295.43598.190.296-40.9.31359
Anthony Rendon233.263.361.414114.152.299-20.9.33930
C.J. Cron434.244.313.433104.190.30010.7.32153
Kyren Paris558.208.305.32775.119.311-40.6.28555
Mickey Moniak448.238.277.43292.195.312-20.5.30053
Taylor Jones311.227.305.38389.155.29500.5.30233
Jo Adell448.228.292.446100.218.300-20.5.31555
Kevin Padlo420.217.298.36783.150.29200.4.29243
Brett Phillips339.182.283.33069.148.29940.3.27430
Matt Thaiss371.220.315.35786.137.279-70.3.29837
Eduardo Escobar429.235.287.40989.174.280-30.3.29847
Evan White163.216.288.39987.182.27220.2.29918
Gustavo Campero232.223.284.36578.142.276-30.1.28225
Randal Grichuk486.242.290.40489.162.28910.1.29954
Jared Oliva352.233.293.36080.127.30930.0.28738
Mike Moustakas331.230.287.38082.150.282-3-0.2.28833
Livan Soto516.216.288.30163.084.2951-0.2.26542
Zach Humphreys258.212.297.30567.093.296-3-0.2.27223
Chris Okey224.220.275.32766.107.299-2-0.2.26619
Willie Calhoun293.250.317.39094.140.271-4-0.2.30833
David Calabrese544.198.269.30859.110.2928-0.2.25745
Chad Wallach291.196.272.33166.135.270-3-0.3.26724
Eric Wagaman236.227.284.36177.134.2871-0.3.28223
Adrian Placencia547.197.288.31066.113.3041-0.4.27048
Bryce Teodosio413.189.257.28550.096.3178-0.5.24432
Jordyn Adams494.209.270.32063.111.3100-0.5.26145
Gabe Matthews422.198.306.32274.124.2912-0.5.28436
Daniel Murphy182.244.297.32171.077.2850-0.5.27516
Jared Walsh427.216.290.39186.174.299-2-0.6.29444
Aaron Whitefield348.204.261.29854.094.3165-0.8.24931
Anthony Mulrine196.182.276.23544.053.265-4-0.8.24111
Jack López347.217.261.33764.121.304-6-0.9.26031
Ryan Aguilar311.174.277.27454.100.2953-0.9.25422
Orlando Martinez467.236.282.36176.125.3030-1.0.27946
Tucker Flint505.205.301.32573.120.311-4-1.1.28245
Kevin Maitan320.193.253.27546.081.3060-1.2.23721
D’Shawn Knowles512.204.258.27949.075.3053-1.3.24039
Myles Emmerson260.179.239.22530.046.284-2-1.4.21314
Preston Palmeiro361.215.277.31564.100.278-3-1.4.26330
Werner Blakely372.178.263.27449.096.321-7-1.5.24527
Arol Vera570.202.247.26141.059.2972-1.8.22837
Sonny DiChiara318.185.274.26049.075.320-5-2.0.24620
Joe Stewart478.208.255.27246.065.3090-2.2.23637

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles

Player80th BA80th OBP80th SLG80th OPS+80th WAR20th BA20th OBP20th SLG20th OPS+20th WAR
Mike Trout.280.392.5731613.8.228.337.4451171.8
Logan O’Hoppe.281.370.5401473.1.232.319.4201041.1
Zach Neto.273.363.4781302.8.226.315.364901.1
Michael Stefanic.297.377.3941142.8.245.324.322830.8
Taylor Ward.290.372.5091402.7.239.321.4051000.6
Nolan Schanuel.283.388.4861392.7.232.336.387980.4
Luis Rengifo.284.348.4551182.
Gio Urshela.308.351.4681232.
Charles Leblanc.263.337.4331102.
Trey Cabbage.259.325.4991192.
Brandon Drury.273.323.4951232.
Anthony Rendon.295.391.4671331.4.230.327.356900.2
C.J. Cron.267.336.4841211.
Kyren Paris.232.331.381941.
Mickey Moniak.263.303.4871111.
Taylor Jones.255.331.4291071.
Jo Adell.256.321.5111241.
Kevin Padlo.242.320.4171001.
Brett Phillips.211.316.392921.
Matt Thaiss.250.345.4171081.
Eduardo Escobar.260.314.4641101.
Evan White.246.316.4581090.
Gustavo Campero.252.313.4251000.
Randal Grichuk.269.320.4551111.
Jared Oliva.255.316.406960.
Mike Moustakas.255.314.4331020.
Livan Soto.240.313.338821.
Zach Humphreys.240.330.350850.
Chris Okey.254.310.393920.
Willie Calhoun.277.346.4441150.
David Calabrese.224.296.354770.
Chad Wallach.224.301.389840.
Eric Wagaman.256.315.4191000.
Adrian Placencia.224.317.364860.
Bryce Teodosio.216.283.330690.
Jordyn Adams.232.295.362790.
Gabe Matthews.227.335.367920.
Daniel Murphy.281.334.360920.
Jared Walsh.241.315.4501070.
Aaron Whitefield.231.287.344730.
Anthony Mulrine.212.310.27163-
Jack López.247.291.391850.
Ryan Aguilar.203.310.32172-
Orlando Martinez.261.306.407940.
Tucker Flint.228.328.36891-
Kevin Maitan.219.278.31863-
D’Shawn Knowles.228.281.31764-
Myles Emmerson.207.271.26248-
Preston Palmeiro.241.305.35781-
Werner Blakely.204.291.32568-
Arol Vera.230.278.30158-
Sonny DiChiara.208.299.29664-
Joe Stewart.234.280.30560-

Batters – Projected Splits

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R
Mike Trout.255.372.500.258.364.515
Logan O’Hoppe.268.366.484.247.327.468
Zach Neto.252.340.455.244.336.404
Michael Stefanic.270.352.365.275.351.347
Taylor Ward.273.363.460.258.338.447
Nolan Schanuel.241.351.411.260.363.441
Luis Rengifo.268.329.433.253.312.398
Gio Urshela.290.336.435.275.314.417
Charles Leblanc.235.319.388.236.307.389
Trey Cabbage.217.276.413.241.302.450
Brandon Drury.252.298.453.241.294.425
Anthony Rendon.259.371.431.264.356.407
C.J. Cron.244.317.433.243.312.433
Kyren Paris.206.313.322.209.298.331
Mickey Moniak.226.271.419.242.279.438
Taylor Jones.233.318.397.224.296.373
Jo Adell.232.298.457.225.288.439
Kevin Padlo.221.308.390.214.289.348
Brett Phillips.171.264.303.186.289.340
Matt Thaiss.214.311.340.224.317.365
Eduardo Escobar.242.290.414.231.285.407
Evan White.220.303.407.213.278.393
Gustavo Campero.218.279.372.226.288.361
Randal Grichuk.252.305.430.237.283.390
Jared Oliva.241.307.387.227.284.341
Mike Moustakas.229.278.349.230.290.392
Livan Soto.
Zach Humphreys.223.321.319.205.279.295
Chris Okey.218.277.345.220.273.314
Willie Calhoun.243.313.365.253.319.400
David Calabrese.192.263.302.201.272.310
Chad Wallach.200.285.357.193.263.310
Eric Wagaman.229.292.385.225.277.342
Adrian Placencia.201.296.317.194.282.304
Bryce Teodosio.195.264.302.184.252.272
Jordyn Adams.212.279.328.207.264.314
Gabe Matthews.187.294.301.204.312.333
Daniel Murphy.
Jared Walsh.204.275.352.221.296.406
Aaron Whitefield.210.275.315.197.247.280
Anthony Mulrine.
Jack López.216.267.338.217.256.337
Ryan Aguilar.
Orlando Martinez.225.269.338.243.289.375
Tucker Flint.200.299.319.208.302.328
Kevin Maitan.
D’Shawn Knowles.
Myles Emmerson.
Preston Palmeiro.217.276.301.214.278.326
Werner Blakely.
Arol Vera.
Sonny DiChiara.
Joe Stewart.

Pitchers – Advanced

Patrick Sandoval141.
Reid Detmers136.
Griffin Canning107.
Tyler Anderson132.
Chase Silseth97.
Kenny Rosenberg111.
Brett Kerry114.
José Suarez84.
Davis Daniel82.
Alan Rangel110.
Ryan Smith74.
Jack Dashwood64.
Michael Darrell-Hicks91.
Jake Lee77.
Jake Kalish109.
Andrew Wantz62.
César Valdez103.
Carlos Estévez55.
Jhonathan Diaz83.
Jack Kochanowicz87.
Jose Soriano65.
Victor Mederos89.
Robinson Pina83.
Mason Erla60.
Jimmy Herget58.
Sammy Natera Jr.
Bryce Osmond90.
Aaron Loup44.
Travis MacGregor74.
John Swanda80.
José Quijada39.310.54.11.410.7%27.2%.286964.421040.2
Adam Kolarek51.
Luis García48.
Zac Kristofak43.
Sam Bachman50.
Hayden Seig56.
Cam Vieaux65.
Luke Murphy48.
Ben Joyce43.
Luis Ledo62.
Kolton Ingram55.
Aaron Hernandez46.
Carson Fulmer51.
Ryan Miller49.
Austin Warren44.
Erik Martinez54.
Jose Marte35.
Jonathan Holder54.
Tyler Thomas39.
JD Hammer39.
Ivan Armstrong63.
Adam Cimber46.
Nick Jones52.
Kenyon Yovan48.
Dylan Phillips54.
Cole Percival71.
Dakota Donovan49.
Nathan Burns31.
Kelvin Caceres52.710.37.01.416.2%23.7%.296785.69129-0.3
Reyes Moronta38.
Houston Harding52.
Brandon Dufault27.
Eric Torres46.710.27.31.417.4%24.2%.288716.15141-0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles

PlayerBA vs. LOBP vs. LSLG vs. LBA vs. ROBP vs. RSLG vs. R80th WAR20th WAR80th ERA20th ERA
Patrick Sandoval.205.271.351.261.338.4163.31.43.484.65
Reid Detmers.225.294.348.242.317.4202.91.13.714.91
Griffin Canning.236.312.415.250.307.4322.30.83.795.05
Tyler Anderson.260.317.409.256.313.4512.
Chase Silseth.247.337.431.235.302.3951.90.63.895.07
Kenny Rosenberg.244.322.370.259.336.4502.
Brett Kerry.283.344.457.258.314.4531.80.54.305.28
José Suarez.239.306.420.250.322.4171.70.43.925.23
Davis Daniel.265.345.457.241.303.4061.
Alan Rangel.271.346.429.260.322.4721.50.14.475.68
Ryan Smith.244.337.411.268.338.4541.10.14.305.50
Jack Dashwood.259.307.420.269.325.4571.10.13.975.47
Michael Darrell-Hicks.278.362.475.260.323.4411.20.14.525.70
Jake Lee.268.319.451.290.335.4941.00.14.455.61
Jake Kalish.246.303.394.296.360.5121.1-0.14.755.92
Andrew Wantz.264.358.434.222.284.4151.0-0.13.825.47
César Valdez.286.333.472.291.326.5071.1-0.24.596.03
Carlos Estévez.224.309.398.225.298.3871.0-0.43.325.66
Jhonathan Diaz.200.283.310.283.381.4871.0-0.24.485.75
Jack Kochanowicz.288.356.500.275.338.4450.9-0.14.845.96
Jose Soriano.218.347.378.216.327.3601.1-0.53.555.45
Victor Mederos.274.378.488.257.330.4190.8-0.24.875.92
Robinson Pina.257.376.444.261.343.4460.8-0.34.806.09
Mason Erla.292.362.504.271.333.4140.60.04.815.69
Jimmy Herget.255.333.490.248.305.3880.8-0.23.745.43
Sammy Natera Jr..245.357.415.257.359.4550.8-0.34.956.23
Bryce Osmond.257.359.413.278.357.5000.7-
Aaron Loup.239.301.373.269.328.4810.7-0.33.385.51
Travis MacGregor.266.387.438.245.319.4290.7-0.34.595.81
John Swanda.292.376.493.273.345.4540.7-
José Quijada.212.305.404.235.321.4080.7-0.43.555.89
Adam Kolarek.229.286.337.293.353.5200.6-0.43.715.67
Luis García.294.368.459.241.320.4170.6-0.33.605.59
Zac Kristofak.284.363.531.277.343.4150.3-0.24.735.84
Sam Bachman.264.364.462.257.369.4040.4-0.34.946.26
Hayden Seig.257.327.426.270.328.4430.5-0.33.935.31
Cam Vieaux.235.333.388.277.357.4860.5-0.54.586.02
Luke Murphy.256.350.456.250.327.4000.4-0.34.335.57
Ben Joyce.232.344.415.235.333.3880.4-
Luis Ledo.268.390.455.273.354.4530.5-0.54.956.35
Kolton Ingram.209.299.358.260.363.4450.6-0.53.985.87
Aaron Hernandez.247.373.435.265.371.4390.3-
Carson Fulmer.264.376.473.250.351.4110.4-0.54.896.66
Ryan Miller.263.343.474.272.339.4370.4-0.44.355.91
Austin Warren.241.333.405.263.343.4630.3-
Erik Martinez.257.356.436.267.338.4660.4-0.54.445.87
Jose Marte.267.397.517.224.333.3820.2-0.44.666.68
Jonathan Holder.256.352.400.266.352.4920.4-0.64.636.28
Tyler Thomas.250.328.442.257.356.4360.3-0.44.406.06
JD Hammer.264.369.472.279.370.4420.2-0.54.986.72
Ivan Armstrong.269.371.454.258.344.4390.2-0.64.956.06
Adam Cimber.268.338.535.276.320.4310.2-0.54.406.40
Nick Jones.235.329.368.257.358.4630.2-0.64.506.05
Kenyon Yovan.258.365.427.257.333.4360.1-0.54.665.89
Dylan Phillips.242.346.424.257.343.4260.2-0.64.485.94
Cole Percival.279.396.471.265.371.4440.2-0.75.356.60
Dakota Donovan.284.379.511.255.346.4090.0-0.64.745.98
Nathan Burns.271.403.508.242.338.3940.0-0.64.906.54
Kelvin Caceres.245.388.479.229.375.3580.2-0.84.936.71
Reyes Moronta.246.387.426.233.356.4530.2-0.84.577.10
Houston Harding.271.366.414.275.373.4930.1-
Brandon Dufault.260.393.420.254.384.458-0.2-0.65.467.11
Eric Torres.204.368.352.242.410.435-0.2-1.15.377.32

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.


Latest articles

Giants Notes: Davis, Pederson, Ahmed

San Francisco’s reported agreement with third baseman Matt Chapman last night added an elite...

How the Blue Jays let Matt Chapman slip through their fingers

Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman...

The 10/90 Scale: Teoscar Hernandez

Image credit: © Mark J. Rebilas - USA TODAY Sports Subscribe to Baseball ProspectusBreaking down...

Vaughn Grissom Likely To Miss Opening Day Due To Groin Strain

Vaughn Grissom will probably have to wait a bit longer to make his official...

More like this

How the Blue Jays let Matt Chapman slip through their fingers

Matt Chapman’s tenure with the Blue Jays ended for good when the third baseman...

The 10/90 Scale: Teoscar Hernandez

Image credit: © Mark J. Rebilas - USA TODAY Sports Subscribe to Baseball ProspectusBreaking down...

On March 2 in Baseball History…

1874 - At the fourth meeting of the Professional Association in Boston, the batter's...