Effectively Wild Episode 2116: Too Close to Hall

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley follow up on the contract over/unders draft and the “death ball,” banter about the signings of Rhys Hoskins and Matt Moore, weigh their current confidence levels in the A’s actually moving to Las Vegas, and consider a suggestion for a “pulling the goalie”-style tweak to baseball. Then (35:44) they talk to leading Hall of Fame election forecaster Jason Sardell about how and why he developed his probabilistic Cooperstown projection model, how it works, this year’s results and surprises, the public-private ballot split, the toughest players to project, his Hall of Fame philosophy, the shrinking of the Hall of Fame backlog, upcoming candidates and ballots, his non-baseball scientific pursuits, and much more.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to over/under draft results
Link to MLBTR FA top 50
Link to death ball BP article
Link to Leo on average fastballs
Link to post on unique pitches
Link to Dead Man’s Curve wiki
Link to Davy Andrews on Hoskins
Link to Brewers offseason additions
Link to MLBTR on Moore
Link to BP’s 2012 Top 101
Link to Ben on pitching prospects
Link to 2023 team RP ranks
Link to A’s update
Link to Vegas event video
Link to MLBTR on the A’s ballpark
Link to “consequences” tweet
Link to Meg on the penalty box
Link to Beltré video
Link to Mauer video
Link to Helton video
Link to Jason’s final projections
Link to 2024 projections roundup
Link to 2023 projections roundup
Link to voting results
Link to Jay’s ballot breakdown
Link to Lewie Pollis on the voting
Link to Wagner interview
Link to Stark on Wright
Link to Posnanski suggestion
Link to SIS on Sabathia
Link to ballot tracker
Link to Thibodaux on EW
Link to Jason on MLB Now
Link to Ben on Mauer in 2018
Link to Ben on Beltré in 2017
Link to Ben on Hall of Framers