| 2:00 | : Hey everybody, welcome to the chat |
| 2:01 | : I’ve been pretty bad about these this year thanks to a combination of technical difficulties on my end and then just getting out of the habit of it, but let’s kick things back off with a good one |
| 2:01 | : Hi Ben – could you share your thoughts on the current state of the Red Sox? |
| 2:01 | : I’m confused about what their plans are, but I think in general they’re playing for the future and I think that’s reasonable |
| 2:02 | : It’s not *fun* to do that as a team like the Red Sox, but I think the way theyr’e doing it is smart |
| 2:02 | : They will be competitive this year for sure, but with that rotation, they need a good number of things to go right to make the playoffs |
| 2:03 | : I think that’s okay, particularly since they’re trying out several interesting new lineup additions and have an impressive farm system that’s starting to trickle up to the major league level |
| 2:03 | : I think that if they didn’t sign one of the few big ticket pitching options this year, punting their free agency moves until next year made sense |
| 2:03 | : Am I crazy to think the Cubs have a nonzero chance at signing both Belli and Chapman? One on a longer deal, one on a higher AAV short deal a la Correa’s first Twins contract? |
| 2:04 | : Nonzero, for sure. I don’t think it’s THAT high, though, just because I don’t see them spending that much |
| 2:05 | : I think it would make sense given that the Brewers are basically betting that the Central won’t be tough this year |
| 2:05 | : they’ve already downgraded on purpose to improve future years, it’s not like they can un-trade Burnes now |
| 2:05 | : seems like it’d be a good time to pivot as the Cubs but it’s one of those I’ll believe it when I see it kinda deals |
| 2:05 | : What’s for lunch? |
| 2:05 | : oh man, it’s a good one this time. Homemade broccoli melt on focaccia |
| 2:06 | : Dynasty Keeper League Correa or Neto (looking primairly at the next couple seasons) |
| 2:06 | : I’d keep Correa but not by a ton |
| 2:06 | : Can you give me any reason for hope for my Nationals? Every time I read news about the team it’s about the owners not selling, MASN dispute, Strasburg/owner conflict, or even prospects like Hassell and Green flaming out. If you squint is there any hope with Abrams/Gore/Gray/Wood/Crews? |
| 2:07 | : Yeah I think the hope is basically: Abrams has been better than expected. Crews seems awesome. Wood looked pretty good in AA as a 20 year old |
| 2:07 | : maybe this big group of prospects will pan out spectacularly |
| 2:07 | : I do think that the team needs to get sold, seems like the Lerners have moved on mentally |
| 2:08 | : And maybe all the Alexandria arena stuff is creating the kind of distraction that keeps other DC area business types away from bidding on the Nats which slows things down? Not really sure if that’s the case or not |
| 2:08 | : But the upside case here is that just as all the talent from their farm system hits the majors, there’s new ownership in place that can’t wait to spend |
| 2:08 | : Since they already have Brent Rooker, I think the A’s should just get as many Mississippi State guys as they can and play in Starkville until Vegas is ready. At least it would be fun. |
| 2:08 | : Seems about as palatable as most of their options. |
| 2:09 | : I wonder if they’d consider playing at the rec league softball field where I play |
| 2:09 | : it’s not THAT much worse of a playing surface than the Coliseum |
| 2:09 | : oh, except for if you forget to get the city to turn off the nighttime sprinkler schedule, then the third baseman might get soaked |
| 2:09 | : IN 2 years Max Scherzer is ? |
| 2:09 | : If Kyle Hendricks has a decent (~150 innings, slightly above average era) season, would you give him the QO? |
| 2:09 | : But I could see it either way |
| 2:10 | : Am I crazy in thinking that if a few things break right for the Reds this year, Cincinnati could legit take the division? They have a solid core in place, and there isn’t a dominant team in the NL Central. |
| 2:10 | : I mean, are they favorites? No |
| 2:10 | : But theyr’e in the mix for sure |
| 2:11 | : How do you feel about Ben Lindbergh and your editor Meg Rowley referring to you as “The Other Ben” on my favorite podcast, Effectively Wild? |
| 2:11 | : Haha I think it’s very reasonable |
| 2:11 | : I listened to EW for a long time before I started writing about baseball so it’s still kinda surreal hearing my name come up at all |
| 2:12 | : Follow-up to the Red Sox and Brewers/Cubs questions earlier: to what extent are teams’ decisions to rebuild or go all-in dependent on the decisions of other teams in their division? Are the Red Sox retooling in part because, sometime in the last year or two, they looked at rest of the AL East and thought: “The O’s are about to get good, the Jays, Rays, and Yanks are already good. Good time to retool.” Did the Brewers look at the rest of the NL Central and think “Good time to trade Burnes; the Cardinals are retooling and the Cubs don’t look they want to spend money yet”? |
| 2:12 | : If teams aren’t doing that, they’re doing it wrong, but I definitely believe that it enters their minds |
| 2:13 | : I’m not sure if it’s a main driver of decisions or anything, but teams absolutely take divisional difficulty and the shape of future teams into account |
| 2:13 | : I think it’s kinda tough in Boston’s case b/c let’s be real, the ALE is going to be a buzzsaw of a division in five years just like it is now |
| 2:14 | : but Milwaukee has done a pretty good job of being opportunistic and pivoting around what’s going on in the central. I think the Twins do a good job of this as well. The Diamondbacks getting more aggressive this offseason is another good example |
| 2:14 | : Do projections take into account the OBP of the hitters in front of them? |
| 2:14 | : Definitely not |
| 2:14 | : We missed you Ben. Looking forward to a great 2024 season. That being said, curious to know what about baseball gets you jazzed up the most? |
| 2:14 | : I looooooove defensive highlights |
| 2:15 | : I’m really excited for a year of Masyn Winn |
| 2:15 | : Surprised at the Witt extension? |
| 2:15 | : Chances the Witt contract is backloaded, given the opt outs included? |
| 2:15 | : I’m a little surprised I guess, but I’ve been the low man on Witt for a long time and I’m pretty sure I still underrate him even as I keep trying to update my priors |
| 2:15 | : I need a little more time for it to sink in |
| 2:15 | : Any rumors or insights on Blake Snell’s potential landing spot? |
| 2:15 | : Does the Giants’ trade of Ross (“Chicken Strip”) Stripling portend some action on the free agent market? Seems like they pretty much have to go out and sign one or more SPs, right? And they would look a lot more competitive for a wild card spot if they also were able to sign Chapman. |
| 2:16 | : I think that Snell to SF looks more likely with trading Stripling |
| 2:16 | : it’d just be a weird move to make if you weren’t planning on backfilling, even if: |
| 2:16 | : All of his stats and peripherals suggest Keaton Winn is the next Logan Webb. Am I out of my mind for thinking he’s a huge underdog in that rotation? |
| 2:16 | : I definitely do not agree with this take! |
| 2:16 | : But if Winn is great |
| 2:17 | : That would help |
| 2:17 | : Seriously, though: Logan Webb absolutely demolished the minors at every stop |
| 2:18 | : Then he reached the majors at 22. Winn scuffled in AA and AAA over the last two years at 24 and 25 |
| 2:18 | : I think that he’s intriguing for sure, but I do not see him as much of a comp for Webb |
| 2:18 | : I was offered Francisco Alvarez and Eury Perez for Jordan Walker. No brainer right? I have to take it. |
| 2:19 | : i don’t know your league settings or anything |
| 2:19 | : Who has a better season this year among these 30 somethings, E. Suarez, M. Chapman, or Rendon? |
| 2:19 | : I’m gonna take Rendon actdually |
| 2:19 | : I think that might be silly |
| 2:19 | : but I’m kinda down on Chapman and I think I know what I’m getting with Suarez, which is an above average regular but nothing more |
| 2:19 | : On a scale of Nutting to Guggenheim, what sort of owner do you expect Rubenstein to be? |
| 2:19 | : I think above average but not Cohen/Guggenheim tier by any means |
| 2:20 | : I get the lol private equity argument, but people were making that about Peter Seidler too |
| 2:20 | : growing up in the area matters a lot |
| 2:21 | : and when you take over a team at 74, and you’re just wildly wealthy, why would you not want to make it good? |
| 2:21 | : @Feinsand Bobby Witt Jr.’s extension: 2024: $2M Club option 3 years/$89M: |
| 2:21 | : Yeah, this is a good structure for Witt |
| 2:22 | : I like these kinds of extensions a LOT, I feel like we’ve gotten to a place where teams and players can negotiate early-career extensions without them being excessively one-sided (in either direction) |
| 2:22 | : Who you got challenging the Twins this year for the central Tigers or CLE? I think both of them are kind of sneaky interesting and Twins pitching depth does not convince me |
| 2:22 | : I like what they’ve been doing |
| 2:23 | : Imagine them with Isaac Paredes (not really but it’s just fun to keep pointing that one out) |
| 2:23 | : Does it really make sense for the cubs to sign me to any sort of long term deal, even if it comes in with a lower AAV than boras wants? |
| 2:23 | : In my opinion? Absolutely |
| 2:25 | : Twins fans everywhere super excited to see the promise to reinvest the Polanco savings has netted them….a 37 year old DH |
| 2:25 | : Given the size of the savings, I’m not sure what you expected |
| 2:26 | : That said, I think it’s a pretty smart move |
| 2:26 | : The Twins do not spend as much as I’d like them to |
| 2:26 | : but I feel like few teams do a better job of winning trades without donig the whole ‘we’ll trade you a quarter today for four dime-level prospects’ deal where you can’t help but win |
| 2:27 | : and I think that they also do a good job of then integrating those trades into their team |
| 2:27 | : I like where they’re headed basically |
| 2:27 | : Padres really going to fill their OF/DH spots with NRI types and prospects that have barely played above A ball and will be out of position? |
| 2:27 | : It definitely looks that way! |
| 2:27 | : Doesn’t really feel like a recipe to success for me |
| 2:27 | : Witt or Tatis on their current contracts, who would you rather have? |
| 2:27 | : I’d take Tatis but I bet you most people would take Witt |
| 2:27 | : Could you elaborate on why you’re the low man on Witt? |
| 2:28 | : A lot of it comes down to not really trusting his approach at the plate |
| 2:28 | : He’s a phenomenal hitter and athlete but I think his pitch recognition is probably a 40 or so |
| 2:29 | : and that just puts a TON of pressure on his bat speed/bat control |
| 2:29 | : it’s really hard to have a swing profile like his and hit for power without striking out a lot |
| 2:30 | : maybe he can do it, again he’s a premium talent, but to really be a star without a complete offensive overhaul he has to keep putting up those excellent numbers on contact and also add value with his defense and legs |
| 2:30 | : legs are a given, I’m definitely less sold on defense |
| 2:31 | : Statcast had him as one of the best shortstops in baseball a year after being one of the worst, DRS thinks he went from abysmal to bad, Prospectus agrees with DRS |
| 2:32 | : Have you guys considered spending less time on the cutesy-poo headlines and more time writing better articles? |
| 2:32 | : Thought about it, decided not to |
| 2:33 | : My normal workflow is 10 hours a day on headlines and then I bang out the article in 15 minutes |
| 2:33 | : What to expect of Eury Perez in 2024? |
| 2:33 | : I expect him to be a top pitcher whose innings are limited |
| 2:33 | : If you were the Orioles, Who would you try to lock up to an extension first: Adley, Gunnar or Burnes? |
| 2:33 | : you know, I always thought JJ Hardy’s ghost would be a Brewers fan |
| 2:33 | : but Gunnar for me |
| 2:33 | : by the narrowest of margins ahead of Adley |
| 2:34 | : I think that probably what will happen is that one or both of them say no and they move on to Burnes |
| 2:34 | : who might also say no |
| 2:34 | : All of what you said about the Twins makes it even more infuriating that they don’t spend |
| 2:34 | : It’s kind of hard to pick anything but the Tigers for that given how little the Guardians have done this offseason. Dead even by their standards. |
| 2:34 | : Truly amazing how little the Guardians have done |
| 2:34 | : what do you think of volpe going into year 2? think people aren’t really engaging with how bad he was in year 1 even by rookie standards, but not sure how much improvement to expect. feels like anyone projecting him for a leap is setting themselves up to be underwhelmed |
| 2:36 | : I don’t really agree with this; I think that the streakiness of his season made it feel worse than it was. I also feel good about his defense, which makes it a lot easier to tolerate some weakness offensively |
| 2:37 | : Projection systems have him as roughly an average hitter this year largely thanks to some improvements in strikeout rate, which makes sense to me |
| 2:37 | : and as a 3 win player give or take |
| 2:37 | : a lot of that will come down to non-hitting parts of his game for sure |
| 2:37 | : Do the Yankees circle back to Snell or are they done for now? |
| 2:37 | : I think they’re done |
| 2:38 | : Do you trust the year to year walk of defensive metrics for infielders more than outfielders given the higher number of chances? |
| 2:38 | : I think that outfield chances are a lot easier to measure |
| 2:38 | : I also think that defensive metrics are just going to be unavoidably noisy |
| 2:38 | : even if you could measure what happened on the field with perfect precision, the variation in skill and type of chance is meaningful |
| 2:38 | : Am I on the block? Who’s gettin’ me and for what? |
| 2:38 | : I’m kinda uncertain on this one |
| 2:39 | : sure, trading Burnes signals that the Brewers are looking to the future |
| 2:39 | : but they’ve always operated with one foot in the now and one in tomorrow |
| 2:39 | : and the return for Adames would likely not be much higher than the comp pick they’re presumably getting for a QO |
| 2:39 | : hard for me to imagine that their long-term interests are served by trading him for not much, they still do need to make the playoffs this year |
| 2:40 | : It’s the year 2050. The icecaps have melted, and dozens of former cities are now underwater. Which members of the 2024 Atlanta Braves are in the Hall of Fame? |
| 2:40 | : Ooh good question |
| 2:41 | : I’ve got: Acuna, Harris II, Strider, Riley |
| 2:41 | : Obviously Acuna is a good bet, the rest are kinda crapshoots imo |
| 2:41 | : Which team’s lack of spending is most infuriating? |
| 2:42 | : It WAS the Orioles |
| 2:42 | : gonna give them a pass for now of course |
| 2:42 | : For me it’s the Pirates |
| 2:42 | : they’ve said in the past that they like to keep payroll at the level of gate receipts |
| 2:42 | : Nutting must be raking in the cash over there |
| 2:42 | : Strider for the HOF is incredibly bold, right? His odds have to be under 20% right now |
| 2:42 | : Why do you think Riley in particular? I can see the other ones, but not really Riley. |
| 2:43 | : Do you think a lot of the other players there are above 20%? I don’t really |
| 2:43 | : it’s tough to make the hall of fame |
| 2:43 | : and I just see Riley as the kind of guy who will end up with some gaudy career numbers in a way that is both old school and new school friendly |
| 2:45 | : tons of homers at a non-1b defensive position, surely plenty of longevity given that he’s 2500 PA’s in at age 26, his peak could be really solid |
| 2:45 | : Do you think his defense will hurt those chances? |
| 2:45 | : no, because I think it has improved a lot |
| 2:45 | : Age 26 David Wright crushes Riley. Riley’s got a long, long, long way to go. |
| 2:45 | : i’m not saying he’s 50% to make the hall of fame even |
| 2:45 | : but David Wright had a phenomenally unlucky run-out on his career |
| 2:45 | : Everyone can agree that the Mariners budgetary restrictions are hogswallop and the team’s ownership is embarrassing… with that being said, am I wrong for thinking Jerry Dipoto has put the Mariners in a pretty solid position to succeed in 2024 with his offseason maneuvering? The Polanco and Soto additions have me excited |
| 2:46 | : Yeah I agree with this sentiment |
| 2:46 | : I think given the silly restrictions, he did pretty well |
| 2:46 | : I’m not sold on the Santos trade in particular, but I’m willing to be convinced |
| 2:48 | : Hi Ben, I hope you’ve had a nice off-season so far. I was wondering what your current expectations are for the Diamondbacks this season? |
| 2:48 | : Compete for the division and make the playoffs |
| 2:49 | : Pick one player from the 2015 Royals or 2016 Cubs for the Hall of Fame. |
| 2:50 | : Aroldis Chapman |
| 2:50 | : man, that’s a boring pick |
| 2:50 | : but I don’t see any other obvious ones and I could see Chapman ending up with one of those ‘yeah okay fine he was just such a key reliever for so long’ kind of things |
| 2:50 | : depends on how reliever cases for HoF evolve over time obviously |
| 2:50 | : but I don’t see any other great options |
| 2:50 | : I know the numbers aren’t quite there, but Anthony Rizzo has Veteran’s committee written all over him |
| 2:50 | : He was my second choice |
| 2:50 | : Do you think Theo coming back to Boston will have a significant impact on the franchise moving forward? I’m excited about his return, but not sure how much control he will have. |
| 2:50 | : Not relaly, to be honest |
| 2:51 | : Sounds like he’s going to bop around between all the teams in the fenway orbit and offer general advice on best practices |
| 2:51 | : which is neat but probably not the knid of thing that makes you better instantly |
| 2:51 | : on volpe: my skepticism of his offense is on not having any hitting skill to hang his hat on. his exit velo is okay not great, his contact rates are okay not great, his swing decisions, pitch recognition, batted ball profile all okay not great. pulls the ball, good, but 59% grounders when he pulls, GB/FB 2.59. it’s not a profile that has one glaring flaw that if he addresses it, everything else comes together. |
| 2:51 | : Yeah totally fair |
| 2:52 | : it does mean that he doesn’t have a single point of failure, but I think his carrying tool is just generally swing decisions and bat control given those decisions |
| 2:52 | : which is admittedly kind of a nebulous profile |
| 2:52 | : A lot of focus on the o’s this year, and rightfully so. Who in the Al east do you think has the best chance of winning the division other than them? |
| 2:52 | : I think the Yankees |
| 2:52 | : But it’s going to be a really competitive division |
| 2:54 | : Our odds are coming out this week and I expect the Yankees to be the favorite given what the projections are sayihng right now |
| 2:55 | : Just by projected WAR, which is not the same as playoff odds, 4 of the 5 teams in the ALE are in the top 11 in baseball |
| 2:55 | : I would guess Jon Lester before Chapman, but I agree we need to watch where the pitching electorate goes. |
| 2:55 | : I’d have had him third after Rizzo |
| 2:55 | : just not a high enough peak for me, but I could definitely be wrong |
| 2:55 | : and we’re dealing in long shots no matter what |
| 2:55 | : Do you think it’s easier to improve a team with a stars-and-scrubs construction? Seems like Verdugo and Grisham (even before you account for Soto) are huge upgrades over the Yankees negative-WAR outfielders besides Judge from last year whereas it’s much harder for a team like the Giants to make an upgrade like that because they are about average everywhere and would need to bring in stars |
| 2:55 | : I absolutely do |
| 2:56 | : the Giants and Cardinals are my go-to examples of teams that have trouble improving with individual moves b/c they’ve already done so well at the easy holes to patch |
| 2:56 | : It’s like if you’re trying to increase the value of a home by renovating it |
| 2:56 | : if everything already looks good, it’s harder to make an easy fix. If one of your bathrooms is 30 years old, well there you go, just getting that thing looking reasonable will do it |
| 2:56 | : Riley is going into his age 27 season and he’s only got 15-18 WAR. Only 3 good seasons- very good seasons, but not great seasons. If he puts up 5 WAR every year for 6 more years, through his age 32 season, he’s still below Wright’s career numbers. So, he’s got to be healthy and consistent for that long and then be able to continue accumulating beyond that. It’s a lot to expect from a guy who got a late start, is not a great defender, and has meh plate discipline. |
| 2:57 | : The question wasn’t which players on the Braves are likely to make the hall of fame |
| 2:57 | : that’s Acuna and no one else imo |
| 2:57 | : I don’t think Riley is likely to make the hall of fame |
| 2:57 | : I don’t think Matt Olson is mORE likely, though |
| 2:57 | : and to be clear, I don’t think ‘David Wright was better’ is a good argument |
| 2:57 | : if he didn’t have his career cut short by injury he’d probably be a hall of famer |
| 2:58 | : Is there anything for Giants fans to look forward to? I am dooming about the Dodgers signing world beaters and SF getting a slap hitting outfielder |
| 2:59 | : I think it’s really fun to watch Logan Webb |
| 2:59 | : Luis Matos is fun, the team almost always has immaculate vibes |
| 2:59 | : But yeah, bummer of an offseason |
| 2:59 | : Which members of the 2024 Atlanta Braves are in the Hall of Fame? That was the question…it kinda was which members of the Braves are likely to make the hall |
| 2:59 | : Ha well, fair enough |
| 2:59 | : Okay how about this |
| 3:00 | : not a very interesting answer, oh well |
| 3:00 | : If the Cardinals win the NLC, it will be because this young player surpassed expectations and made a big impact: |
| 3:00 | : But runner up: no one and they just win b/c their innings eaters are better than expected |
| 3:00 | : Do you hate the Reds rotation as much as projections do? Personally feels like there’s no way these guys can all be as bad as they are collectively being projecte to be… |
| 3:01 | : We have them as the 7th-best rotation in baseball |
| 3:01 | : do you think the bluejays are still looking to add this offseason? |
| 3:01 | : I thought they were |
| 3:01 | : but…. at this point, I do not |
| 3:01 | : I think they SHOULD |
| 3:01 | : Since no one in their right mind on Yawkey Way can talk themselves into competing for a WC spot…shouldn’t the Sox give fulltime ABs to guys like Duran, Abreu, Valdez, & Rafaela so they know what they have for when they decide to spend $1 at some point? |
| 3:01 | : Oh I definitely would |
| 3:02 | : maybe not all four, but I’d focus on giving the young guys ABs |
| 3:02 | : Now that we’ve seen it in action for a year, what is your opinion on the LF wall in Camden? Too much? Just right? (full disclosure: I think it’s an awful eyesore with no bearing on the team’s good fortune) |
| 3:02 | : I think it’s an eyesore but that it probably made sense to do just to keep the offensive environment in a reasonable place |
| 3:03 | : Is the Javy Baez contract the worst in baseball right now? |
| 3:03 | : Yeah I think so |
| 3:03 | : man that one went south quickly |
| 3:03 | : Am I crazy to think Skubal could win the AL Cy Young this year? He was really good once he came back in July. |
| 3:03 | : You are definiteliy not |
| 3:03 | : A quick look at some odds suggests that he’s the 7th-best bet |
| 3:04 | : so the market agrees with you for the most part |
| 3:04 | : Strasburg contract? |
| 3:04 | : that’s a contender, but it’s mitigated by how it seems clear that the Nats are getting an insurance payout |
| 3:04 | : the whole retiring unretiring thing suggests a prince fielder situatin |
| 3:04 | : Do you think the Pirates could look like a fringe wild card contender if they go out and sign/trade for a 2-3 type starting pitcher? |
| 3:04 | : I wish I did |
| 3:05 | : I think that this team is just too bad for one mid-level pitcher to fix things |
| 3:05 | : Hopefully brighter times ahead and all |
| 3:05 | : But the rotation is DIRE |
| 3:05 | : and it’s not like their offense is lights out |
| 3:06 | : How big of a believer are you in Chris Sale? Braves seem to be big believers |
| 3:06 | : I would say I’m a medium believer, but I think he’s a really smart bet for them given the construction of the team |
| 3:06 | : it just makes sense to play for upside regardless of availability given how loaded they are |
| 3:08 | : Having my board game group over tonight. Any opinion between Monarch, Isle of Skye, and Bloody Inn? |
| 3:09 | : I’ve never played any of these, sadly |
| 3:09 | : I’ve heard really good things about Bloody Inn though |
| 3:09 | : so I guess that? |
| 3:09 | : I just spent 6 hours playing Frosthaven yday so I’m wildly board gamed out at the moment |
| 3:09 | : Same question Himbo had about Sale, but for Kelenic |
| 3:09 | : Now this one is a toughie |
| 3:10 | : I am not as big of a believer in Kelenic as Atlanta, but I do think that the price was reasonable and that it’s smart to try things like that if you’re given the opportunity |
| 3:10 | : he clearly has a carrying tool |
| 3:10 | : Bloody Inn is frustrating in the best way – perfectly designed that you always wish you had one more action per turn. Recommend giving it a shot! |
| 3:10 | : What a great pitch for a game |
| 3:10 | : So am I right to be angry every time I see Rob Refsnyder, Pablo Reyes, or Bobby Dalbec touch a bat? |
| 3:10 | : mmmmm…. maybe not Dalbec? |
| 3:10 | : I feel like the clay hasn’t quite dried there |
| 3:10 | : Refsnyder and Reyes, yeah |
| 3:10 | : Do you think maybe Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell were just figments of our imagination, and the reason they haven’t signed is that they don’t actually exist? |
| 3:10 | : A reasonable theory |
| 3:11 | : Are the cubs getting themselves into the giants/cardinals range where they have a bunch of good, not elite players where it will be hard for them to really add wins to the roster after this season? |
| 3:12 | : They are, but maybe I’m too low on their farm system |
| 3:13 | : I suppose PCA or Alcantara could be that guy |
| 3:13 | : Good afternoon puny humans. |
| 3:13 | : what percentage of FG writers do you think will pick a team other than the Dodgers to win the WS this year? (and how about other than the Dodgers or Braves?) |
| 3:13 | : I’m gonna answer the second, Dodgers or Braves |
| 3:13 | : I think it’s pretty likely that I will |
| 3:14 | : I’m with you in thinking that those two teams will be a very strong consensus |
| 3:14 | : and i think that a higher percentage of writers will pick them than their true odds will be |
| 3:14 | : but let’s say… 20% |
| 3:14 | : It’s been awhile since I’ve made a chat: what have I missed the last several months? |
| 3:14 | : From me, not much! Overall, you’ve missed some awesome chats and then also some weird discussions of food from Dan |
| 3:14 | : Do you think Ohtani will break down physically in a years from an accumulation of injuries, making his 10-year contract an albatross for the Dodgers? |
| 3:15 | : I definitely do not |
| 3:15 | : It’s hard for his contract to be an albatross given the marketing half of things |
| 3:15 | : and the fact that he could just be a really good hitter |
| 3:16 | : Your a GM of a 500 team trying to win a world series in the next two years. Your boss says I’ll double your payroll budget and and approve all trades but you have to give my grandson 400 at bats a year. Are you in? |
| 3:16 | : Oh man, good question |
| 3:16 | : I think I’d probably be out unless the owner’s grandson was already a major leaguer |
| 3:16 | : or like, Robert Hassell the First |
| 3:17 | : Related to above: would FG ever consider having writers make their picks more probabilistically? In other words, which team (in each league, or division, etc) is most underrated by the prevailing odds of making playoffs or winning World Series? That would be more interesting to me vs a regurgitation of mostly favorites (we all know the Dodgers are stacked!). |
| 3:17 | : Probably not, but don’t worry, I just do it anyway |
| 3:17 | : Have you ever noticed a trend that teams with elite bullpens overperform in the regular season compared to projections/expectations? the common sentiment was always been pitching and defense, but I’m starting to think that locking in the final 3 innings is actually more of an indicator. Think last years orioles — not incredible pitching, but that backend of the bullpen was lights out. |
| 3:17 | : I did think this but I’ve never been able to find much evidence, and Dan hasn’t either |
| 3:17 | : Re: PCA. Are Cubs fans who say he can fill a Bellinger-sized whole on the roster just coping or are they close enough to right that not getting Bellinger back isn’t that bad for them? |
| 3:17 | : I’m not really the guy to ask about that, but prospect week is coming soon |
| 3:19 | : The Blue Jays haven’t won a single postseason game during their current window of contention. Bichette and VGJ are controllable for two more seasons. Is the front office completely blowing this opportunity to win a WS? |
| 3:19 | : Mmmmm…. I don’t really know how to disentangle bad outcome from bad process |
| 3:20 | : I did like trading for Berrios at the time |
| 3:20 | : and honestly they’d do that deal again even though he’s underwhelmed on the whole |
| 3:20 | : certainly the team has not met expectations though |
| 3:20 | : Alright on that note, I have to head out and make my lunch, but thanks everyone for a delightful chat today |
| 3:20 | : Let’s do it again sometime soon |
| 3:20 | : Have a wonderful week |
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
