The Giants have been consistent with their total payroll budget since 2019, with Farhan Zaidi leading the organization. For the current 2024 MLB season, the Giants are much lower at $151,988,300 than any other year of Zaidi’s tenure despite the COVID-19 prorated season.
| Year | Total Payroll Amount |
| 2024 | $151,988,300 |
| 2023 | $189,036,059 |
| 2022 | $165,925,584 |
| 2021 | $176,668,861 |
| 2020 (COVID-19) | $82,127,093 (COVID-19) |
| 2019 | $178,286,222 |
| 2018 | $208,509,901 |
It is clear to see above that the Giants don’t look to be finished spending this offseason if you compare their spending from past seasons. Signing both Blake Snell and Matt Chapmans would create another powerhouse out West and a better chance to put up a fight with the Dodgers. The Bob Melvin connection could help Snell and Chapman both feel more comfortable about coming to SF.
Matt Chapman Projected Contract: 30 years old, 2023: 3.5 WAR in 581 TPA; career .338 wOBA in 3588 TPA
I estimate Matt Chapman will sign for 7 years for $150 million with an AAV of $21.43 million. This would equate to $4.87 million per WAR. I came to this conclusion after looking at what previous 3Bs have signed for compared to Chapman’s ability and taking into account a weaker free-agent market as a whole. Jose Ramirez signed a 7-year deal in 2022, and it was worth $141 million. Ramirez likes playing for the Guardians and didn’t go into the open market, which made his deal cheaper than it probably should have. This deal was also two years ago, and the markets often change quickly. Third Base isn’t valued as much as Short Stop in terms of the difficulty of the position, making the contracts worth less. Dansby Swanson is a good player comp of an SS that has a similar style of being a solid all-around player with a large focus on defense. He signed a 7-year $177 million dollar deal with an AAV of $25,285,714. Dansby’s contract equated to $4.44 million per WAR. If you look at the AAV of the top 10 SS ($27,157,510) compared to the top 10 3B ($23,351,103), it shows the SS are valued at $3,806,407 more on the top end of the market.
Blake Snell Projected Contract: 30 years old, 2023: 4.1 WAR in 180 IP; career 3.44 FIP in 992.2 IP
I estimate that Blake Snell will sign for 6 Years for $186 million with an AAV of $31 million. A really good comp is Carlos Rodon, who is also a Boras client and is a left-handed starting pitcher. Rodon and Snell have only had a couple of very good years and have also been injured a good amount. Rodon’s contract is worth $5,084,745 per WAR, and I valued Snell’s at $5,149,501 per WAR. I believe Snell is more valuable because Rodon has a history of his velocity and ability slowing down towards the end of the year due to shoulder injuries. The 2023 and 2024 free agency classes of starting pitchers seem comparable, and we can expect similar pricing among players. A really good left-handed starting pitcher is extremely hard to find, and when one comes on the market, many teams will go after it. There can be a good amount of risk with pitchers in their 30s, but Snell has maintained an average 4-seam Fastball velo of 95.0 mph to 95.8 mph since 2018, according to Baseball Savant. He doesn’t look like he is slowing down and is seemingly in the prime of his career after a historic year. For at least the next four seasons, you should feel fairly confident in Snell’s ability to keep his velo and pitch well.
2024 Final Payroll with Snell and Chapman: $204,288,300
This would only be higher by $15,252,241 compared to last year and still under the $237 million tax threshold for team salaries. Even just getting one of them would be under last year’s total salaries and could free up some money to acquire a key player at the deadline.
