Today is the day we have all been waiting for, as pitchers and catchers have officially reported to Spring Training! With baseball right around the corner, I wanted to predict what the Phillies Opening Day lineup will look like with the current roster. This will not take any remaining free agents into consideration and account for only players currently on the Phillies at the start of Spring Training.
1st: Kyle Schwarber DH
You can argue all you want about whether or not the Phillies should move his power to the middle of the order, but you absolutely cannot argue with results. While Schwarber did not hit for an average of .200 or better, he walked 126 times (4th most in a single season in Phillies history) and hit 47 home runs (tied for 4th most in a single season in Phillies history) in 2023. And now that the National League has implemented the universal DH, there really is no such thing as a traditional leadoff hitter anymore.
2nd: Trea Turner SS
Until August, Trea Turner had struggled mightily in his first season in Philadelphia last season. It took him making a crucial error in an extra innings loss against the Miami Marlins for fans to give him a standing ovation in their next series against the Royals for Turner to flip his season around. I don’t think I ever saw a player go on a stretch like Trea Turner went on from August 4th to September 12. He had a slash line of .381/.424/.813 and a 1.237 OPS, while slugging 16 home runs and 41 RBIs. If a full season of All Star Trea Turner is in the cards for 2024, the Phillies will benefit greatly by keeping him in the top of the order.
3rd: Bryce Harper 1B
While he only played 126 games last year, Bryce Harper continued to show why he is one of the best hitters in baseball. He had multiple clutch home runs and slugged an OPS of .900. Harper also asked to play first base when his elbow was healthy enough and will be the team’s first baseman going into 2024. Harper is the ultimate team player and embodies Philadelphia every time he steps onto the field. With Harper back to being fully healthy going into a new season, I would expect a big season from number 3.
4th: Nick Castellanos RF
Nick Castellanos bounced back last season and was an All Star for the 2nd time in his career. He set a career high with 106 RBIs. He looked like the hitter he was in Cincinnati the year before signing with the Phillies. His defense, yes it isn’t great, but he has improved in right field and should be penciled in every night as either the DH or RF.
5th: Bryson Stott 2B
Bryson Stott took a massive leap in 2023 both in the field and at the plate. He was a gold glove level defender at second base and that was mostly why he ended up with a bWAR of just over 4, which made him tied with Zack Wheeler for the most valuable player on the Phillies last season. He played some shortstop and third base in his rookie season, but he slid over to the everyday second baseman when the team signed Turner, and he played like one of the best at his position. Fans were even making comparisons to the legendary Chase Utley. His biggest moment of the year had to be hitting a grand slam in the postseason against the Marlins. I would expect Stott to continue to be a productive hitter and keep up his elite defense.
6th: Alec Bohm 3B
Bohm had a very solid year at the plate in 2023, setting career highs in home runs (20), RBIs (97), walks (42) and doubles (31). His biggest issue is his defense, and while he showed some improvement in the field, he is still a minus defender. He played some first base early in 2023 while the Phillies were rotating between him, Jake Cave, Kody Clemens, and Darrick Hall, and he looked solid there, but obviously he won’t be playing there as often as he will be at third base, so it is pivotal that we see some improvement at the hot corner. Bohm also went ice cold during the postseason, with only 3 extra base hits and a .239 BA in 13 games. I think slotting him in at 6th in the order will be the most ideal spot for him since he was the Phillies best hitter with runners in scoring position last season.
7th: JT Realmuto C
JT Realmuto has a case to be the best catcher in Phillies history. He might have lost his title as the Best Catcher in Baseball this year as there are a lot of really good catchers rising in the MLB (Adley Rutschman, Jonah Heim, etc.), but JT is still one of the most durable players in the MLB. His defensive metrics took a fall this past season, but it is very tough to be as good as he’s been behind the plate for a long time. He has homered in each of the last 6 postseason series the Phillies have played, so he will continue to be a key piece in this Phillies lineup.
8th: Brandon Marsh LF
It was recently reported that Brandon Marsh had a procedure done in his left knee and the team says they expect him to miss 3-4 weeks, but he should be back by Opening Day. Marsh was one of the most consistent hitters in the Phillies lineup last season, and I don’t see any reason why he can’t keep that going into next season. Marsh is still early in his MLB career, but 2023 was a career year at the plate while also playing solid defense across all three outfield positions. May 2024 be another year filled with wet hair and celebrations for Marshy!
9th: Johan Rojas CF
Rojas emerged on the scene last season and had an extremely productive season in only 59 games plus the postseason. His bat was, to everyone’s surprise, very good. He also was maybe the best defensive center fielder I have watched the Phillies have. In only 59 games, he accumulated a 2.5 bWAR, which would put him on pace for a 6.8 bWAR(!!!). He is also really fast, as he stole 62 bases in the minor leagues back in 2022, so the new rules of limiting pick-off attempts and larger bases will heavily impact him going forward. The Phillies haven’t said for sure whether Rojas will be starting in the MLB next season, so it might be safe to think he starts in Triple-A Lehigh Valley to get better on the offensive side.
Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola
After signing a massive contract in the offseason to return to Philadelphia, Aaron Nola should get the ball as the Opening Day starter for the 7th consecutive season, which would make him 3rd in team history in Opening Day starts behind only Steve Carlton and Robin Roberts. Nola had a down year last year giving up a career high 32 home runs. But he still started at least 32 games and struck out at least 200 batters for the 5th straight full season. Zack Wheeler and Nola make up possibly the best 1-2 punch in the MLB for starting pitchers, and it’s only right that Nola keeps his streak of Opening Day starts going.
The Phillies could still use some more depth, so they don’t have to play Jake Cave in the outfield when giving a day off to one of the regulars, but it remains to be seen if David Dombrowski thinks the Phillies need to add more to their roster. The Phillies have made it clear that they are prioritizing extending Zack Wheeler, so maybe they will stand pat with what they have.
