HomeTrending MLB NewsThe Official (And Hopefully Not Too Cringe) 2024 ZiPS Projections

The Official (And Hopefully Not Too Cringe) 2024 ZiPS Projections

Published on

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

After all the rumors and money and projections, here we are, back at 0-0, with every team having at least some theoretical level of hope for the coming season. Beginning Thursday, actual games will turn these projections to shreds, but this is the best algorithmic projection I have the ability to make for 2024. Just a note that I have not committed an act of decimal cheating; ZiPS does not know that the Padres and Dodgers are 1-1.

The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, meaning there naturally will be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion (the computational algorithms, that is — no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing chemin de fer like James Bond).

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk that changes the baseline PAs/IPs for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically (and proportionally) fills in playing time from the next players on the list to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. The model’s had a lot of updates since the pre-spring projections, so probabilities may have moved slightly more than you might have expected from the changes in wins.

The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds.

The goal of ZiPS is to be less mind-blowingly awful than any other way of predicting the future. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect astrophysicist Arthur Eddington’s arrow of time, it’s probably not going to be in service of baseball projections. So we project probabilities, not certainties.

Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.7 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. I’m always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit in predicting how teams will perform has already been harvested. With one major exception, most of ZiPS’ problems now are about accuracy rather than bias. ZiPS’ year-to-year misses for teams are uncorrelated, with an r-squared of one year’s miss to the next of 0.000562. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points aren’t ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r-squared is the Mariners at 0.03, which isn’t terribly meaningful. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, you thought wrong, and I’d bet it’s the same for the other notable projection systems.

If you want to check out the pre-spring projections, which talk about the biggest things to happen up to that point, here are the links to the AL and NL projections. Since it has been requested, for these official 2024 projections, I’ve also added 80th and 20th percentile win totals to the standings tables.

ZiPS Projected Standings – AL East

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
Baltimore Orioles9171.56237.2%34.8%72.1%8.8%99.082.2
New York Yankees87754.53724.1%35.2%59.3%5.2%95.878.7
Toronto Blue Jays87754.53722.4%35.9%58.3%5.0%95.378.7
Tampa Bay Rays83798.51211.9%29.2%41.1%2.3%91.174.4
Boston Red Sox778514.4754.4%17.5%22.0%0.7%85.969.2

Since the last set of projections, the movement here can mostly be attributed to starting pitching. Corbin Burnes provides a huge boost to the Orioles, but some of the benefit of his addition is negated because of less optimistic innings totals for the injured John Means and, more significantly, Kyle Bradish. The injury to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole diminishes their outlook a bit, though they still have the American League’s third highest playoff probability. Lucas Giolito wasn’t expected to pitch the Red Sox to the postseason, but his injury makes a Boston playoff berth even less likely.

ZiPS Projected Standings – AL Central

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
Minnesota Twins8676.53141.8%15.7%57.5%4.5%94.177.0
Cleveland Guardians85771.52538.4%16.6%55.1%3.9%93.376.7
Detroit Tigers78848.48113.2%11.6%24.8%0.8%85.869.3
Kansas City Royals738913.4515.9%6.5%12.5%0.2%81.465.0
Chicago White Sox639923.3890.6%0.8%1.5%0.0%71.554.8

People might still be shocked to see the White Sox with a 1.5% chance of making the postseason, but one of the things I’ve learned after doing this for 20 years is that people – even the most sophisticated ones – tend to underrate how often improbable things happen. Luckily, with so many years in the books, I’ve had the ability to do a lot of calibration! In most simulations, the division features a fairly tight race between the Twins and Guardians for the title and the Tigers finishing third. And because the Central is relatively weak, a Royals playoff appearance would be unlikely but not unreasonably so.

ZiPS Projected Standings – AL West

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
Houston Astros8874.54337.0%26.2%63.2%6.3%96.579.4
Texas Rangers86762.53128.4%27.0%55.5%4.5%94.477.6
Seattle Mariners86762.53127.4%27.3%54.7%4.3%94.077.6
Los Angeles Angels778511.4756.9%14.7%21.6%0.7%85.668.7
Oakland A’s639925.3890.2%0.9%1.1%0.0%71.654.7

The big change here is a slightly more negative distribution of the innings for Astros pitchers, narrowing their lead over the Rangers and Mariners. I appreciate ZiPS’ bringing the M’s just that much closer to the Seattle Mariners .540 meme. The A’s now project to finish a fraction of a win ahead of the White Sox in the AL basement, which is some kind of victory, I guess.

ZiPS Projected Standings – NL East

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
Atlanta Braves9567.58662.6%21.4%84.0%15.2%103.386.0
Philadelphia Phillies857710.52517.9%33.4%51.2%3.7%93.376.7
New York Mets837912.51212.9%28.2%41.1%2.3%91.274.0
Miami Marlins798316.4886.3%20.2%26.6%1.0%87.170.4
Washington Nationals669629.4070.3%2.0%2.3%0.0%74.157.4

ZiPS does give the Braves a 1% chance at winning 116 games! Atlanta lost a bit in the probabilities because of some changes in the generalized playing time model that fills in the backups. Even if ZiPS sees the playoffs as a bit less certain for this team than it did six weeks ago, the Braves still have the highest projected win total in the majors. The Marlins took a sizable hit after some negative injury news, a pretty big deal for them since the pitching staff is their source of upside. It sure ain’t the hitting!

ZiPS Projected Standings – NL Central

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
St. Louis Cardinals8379.51227.8%16.0%43.8%2.6%90.774.4
Chicago Cubs82801.50627.9%15.6%43.5%2.5%91.074.2
Cincinnati Reds80823.49420.8%14.3%35.1%1.6%89.071.6
Milwaukee Brewers78845.48114.7%12.6%27.3%1.0%86.870.0
Pittsburgh Pirates75878.4638.9%9.0%17.9%0.5%83.767.3

ZiPS loves Pete Crow-Armstrong and is suspicious of Cody Bellinger matching his 2023 numbers, but bringing him back was still enough to push the Cubs into a near-statistical tie in what was already projected to be a very close race. The Brewers took a hit with the loss of Burnes, and as a result, they slightly boosted the projections for the other four teams in the division.

ZiPS Projected Standings – NL West

TeamWLGBPctDiv%WC%Playoff%WS Win%80th20th
Los Angeles Dodgers9369.57449.3%29.7%79.0%11.9%101.184.2
Arizona Diamondbacks86767.53120.5%34.9%55.5%4.4%94.477.8
San Francisco Giants85778.52517.2%32.1%49.4%3.4%93.276.1
San Diego Padres837910.51212.7%28.5%41.2%2.3%91.374.0
Colorado Rockies679526.4140.2%1.9%2.1%0.0%74.559.0

The NL West contenders fighting with the Dodgers – which means the three other teams that are not the Rockies – all received a boost because, since the pre-spring projections, they each added one of the top starting pitchers available, either in free agency or via trade, this offseason. The Diamondbacks, Giants, and Padres are better after having acquired, respectively, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease, but the moves haven’t changed the relative positions of these teams in the projected standings. Even so, these deals — along with San Francisco’s signing of Matt Chapman — have created more scenarios in which the Dodgers can be bested for the divisional title, though they remain the favorites.

One thing you see a lot on social media, especially from sites that repost these projections, is outrage that “the best team will only have X wins.” The Orioles are projected to have the best record in the AL, at 91-71, but that doesn’t mean that ZiPS projects 91 wins to lead the AL. Those 91 wins represent Baltimore’s 50th percentile performance in those million simulations, and it is astronomically unlikely that all 30 teams hit their 50th-percentile projections. On average, you should expect three teams to hit their 90th percentile, six to hit their 80th, nine to hit their 70th, and so on and so forth. But again, it’s rarely going to be that neat. So here’s the percentile matrix for the number of wins it would take to secure each of the six playoff spots.

ZiPS Playoff Matrix

To Win10th20th30th40th50th60th70th80th90th
AL East89.392.094.095.897.499.1100.9103.0105.9
AL Central83.086.088.190.091.893.695.697.9101.1
AL West86.689.491.593.495.196.898.7100.9103.9
AL Wild Card 187.489.290.691.893.094.295.597.099.2
AL Wild Card 284.185.887.088.089.090.191.292.594.4
AL Wild Card 381.683.184.385.386.287.188.289.491.1
NL East88.391.493.695.697.599.4101.5104.2107.8
NL Central83.586.288.189.891.493.094.896.899.6
NL West88.891.793.895.797.599.2101.1103.3106.4
NL Wild Card 187.489.390.691.893.094.295.597.199.2
NL Wild Card 284.085.787.088.089.090.091.192.494.2
NL Wild Card 381.583.184.285.286.287.188.189.391.0

source

Latest articles

Whitey Herzog Defined an Era, but He Was Ahead of His Time

No manager defined the era of baseball marked by artificial turf and distant outfield...

Deleted Instagram video sparks FAA investigation of Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are off to a franchise-worst 4-15 start in 2024, a...

Rockies Place Kyle Freeland On Injured List With Elbow Strain

The Rockies announced that left-hander Kyle Freeland has been placed on the 15-day injured...

Dodgers Major Infield Mistake is Costing a lot of Runs

The summer is turning up in LA early, and the Dodgers are the reason...

More like this

Whitey Herzog Defined an Era, but He Was Ahead of His Time

No manager defined the era of baseball marked by artificial turf and distant outfield...

Deleted Instagram video sparks FAA investigation of Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are off to a franchise-worst 4-15 start in 2024, a...

Dodgers Major Infield Mistake is Costing a lot of Runs

The summer is turning up in LA early, and the Dodgers are the reason...