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FanGraphs 2024 Staff Predictions | FanGraphs Baseball

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Clayton Freeman/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

After an offseason marked by big trades and a slow free agent market, the 2024 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.

We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results.

American League

American League West

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Houston Astros1346023
Texas Rangers813416
Seattle Mariners446216
Los Angeles Angels00000
Oakland A’s00000

American League Central

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Minnesota Twins1800119
Detroit Tigers40037
Cleveland Guardians20002
Kansas City Royals10001
Chicago White Sox00000

American League East

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Baltimore Orioles1344425
New York Yankees784322
Tampa Bay Rays431311
Toronto Blue Jays11158
Boston Red Sox00000

American League One Seed

TeamVotes
Houston Astros10
Baltimore Orioles8
Texas Rangers5
Seattle Mariners1
Tampa Bay Rays1

American League Two Seed

TeamVotes
New York Yankees6
Baltimore Orioles5
Houston Astros3
Seattle Mariners3
Texas Rangers3
Tampa Bay Rays2
Detroit Tigers1
Minnesota Twins1
Toronto Blue Jays1

National League

National League West

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Los Angeles Dodgers2211125
Arizona Diamondbacks2111418
San Francisco Giants102912
San Diego Padres006410
Colorado Rockies00000

National League Central

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Chicago Cubs900211
St. Louis Cardinals801211
Cincinnati Reds50016
Milwaukee Brewers30014
Pittsburgh Pirates00101

National League East

TeamDivisionWild Card 1Wild Card 2Wild Card 3Playoffs
Atlanta Braves2221025
Philadelphia Phillies3211025
New York Mets00112
Miami Marlins00000
Washington Nationals00000

National League One Seed

TeamVotes
Atlanta Braves14
Los Angeles Dodgers9
Philadelphia Phillies2

National League Two Seed

TeamVotes
Los Angeles Dodgers13
Atlanta Braves8
Arizona Diamondbacks1
San Francisco Giants1
Philadelphia Phillies1
Cincinnati Reds1

Pennant and World Series Winners

American League Pennant Winner

TeamVotes
Baltimore Orioles12
Houston Astros5
Texas Rangers3
Tampa Bay Rays2
New York Yankees2
Toronto Blue Jays1

National League Pennant Winner

TeamVotes
Atlanta Braves11
Philadelphia Phillies7
Los Angeles Dodgers6
San Diego Padres1

World Series Matchups

MatchupVotes
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies4
Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves4
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves3
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers3
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies2
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves2
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies1
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves1
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers1
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves1
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres1

World Series Winner

TeamVotes
Atlanta Braves7
Los Angeles Dodgers5
Philadelphia Phillies5
Baltimore Orioles4
Houston Astros1
Toronto Blue Jays1
Tampa Bay Rays1
New York Yankees1

Individual Awards

Staff Predictions – Full Ballots

American League Full Ballots

AuthorWestCentralEastWC1WC2WC31 Seed2 Seed
Alex ChamberlainSEAMINBALNYYHOUTORBALSEA
Ariel CohenHOUMINNYYTBRSEABALHOUNYY
Ben ClemensSEAMINTBRBALHOUNYYTBRSEA
Chris GilliganHOUMINBALNYYTEXDETHOUBAL
Dan SzymborskiHOUCLEBALNYYTORTEXBALHOU
David LaurilaHOUMINBALSEATBRTEXHOUBAL
Davy AndrewsHOUMINNYYBALSEATBRHOUNYY
Eric LongenhagenTEXDETNYYHOUBALTORTEXDET
Esteban RiveraTEXMINNYYSEAHOUBALTEXNYY
Jake MailhotHOUMINBALSEANYYTORBALHOU
Jason MartinezSEADETTORBALNYYMINSEATOR
Jay JaffeTEXMINBALTBRHOUNYYBALTEX
Jeff ZimmermanTEXCLETBRHOUSEABALTEXTBR
Jon BeckerTEXMINBALNYYHOUTBRBALTEX
Justin MasonHOUKCRBALTORSEATEXHOUBAL
Kiri OlerSEAMINBALHOUNYYTORBALSEA
Kyle KishimotoHOUMINTBRNYYBALDETHOUTBR
Leo MorgensternHOUMINNYYTEXBALTORHOUNYY
Lucas KellyHOUMINBALNYYSEATEXHOUBAL
Matt MartellHOUDETNYYBALTEXSEAHOUNYY
Meg RowleyTEXMINTBRSEABALNYYTEXMIN
Michael BaumannTEXDETBALNYYHOUSEABALTEX
Mike PodhorzerHOUMINNYYTBRSEABALHOUNYY
Paul SporerHOUMINBALNYYTEXDETBALHOU
Tess TaruskinTEXMINBALHOUNYYTBRTEXBAL

American League Individual Awards

AuthorMVPCy YoungRoY
Alex ChamberlainJulio RodríguezCole RagansWyatt Langford
Ariel CohenJuan SotoKevin GausmanWyatt Langford
Ben ClemensJuan SotoGeorge KirbyJunior Caminero
Chris GilliganJulio RodríguezTarik SkubalEvan Carter
Dan SzymborskiJuan SotoCorbin BurnesWyatt Langford
David LaurilaJulio RodríguezTarik SkubalEvan Carter
Davy AndrewsJulio RodríguezCole RagansEvan Carter
Eric LongenhagenLuis Robert Jr.Tarik SkubalWyatt Langford
Esteban RiveraAaron JudgeGeorge KirbyWyatt Langford
Jake MailhotJuan SotoGeorge KirbyWyatt Langford
Jason MartinezRoyce LewisCorbin BurnesColt Keith
Jay JaffeJuan SotoCorbin BurnesWyatt Langford
Jeff ZimmermanYordan AlvarezLogan GilbertWyatt Langford
Jon BeckerJuan SotoCorbin BurnesWyatt Langford
Justin MasonVladimir Guerrero Jr.Luis CastilloWyatt Langford
Kiri OlerJulio RodríguezKevin GausmanJunior Caminero
Kyle KishimotoAaron JudgePablo LópezWyatt Langford
Leo MorgensternJuan SotoTarik SkubalJackson Holliday
Lucas KellyBobby Witt Jr.Corbin BurnesWyatt Langford
Matt MartellJuan SotoGeorge KirbyWyatt Langford
Meg RowleyJosé RamírezGeorge KirbyWyatt Langford
Michael BaumannAdley RutschmanLogan GilbertWyatt Langford
Mike PodhorzerJuan SotoKevin GausmanWyatt Langford
Paul SporerMike TroutGeorge KirbyEvan Carter
Tess TaruskinMarcus SemienFramber ValdezJunior Caminero

National League Full Ballots

AuthorWestCentralEastWC1WC2WC31 Seed2 Seed
Alex ChamberlainLADSTLATLPHISDPCHCATLLAD
Ariel CohenLADSTLATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
Ben ClemensLADMILATLPHISFGSTLATLLAD
Chris GilliganLADCHCATLPHISFGSTLLADATL
Dan SzymborskiLADSTLATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
David LaurilaARICINPHIATLLADCHCPHICIN
Davy AndrewsLADCHCATLPHINYMARILADATL
Eric LongenhagenARICINATLPHISDPLADATLARI
Esteban RiveraLADCHCATLPHIARINYMATLLAD
Jake MailhotLADCHCATLPHIARISDPLADATL
Jason MartinezSFGCINPHILADATLSDPPHISFG
Jay JaffeLADSTLATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
Jeff ZimmermanLADMILATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
Jon BeckerLADCHCATLPHIARISFGLADATL
Justin MasonLADCHCATLPHIPITARILADATL
Kiri OlerLADCINATLPHISDPARIATLLAD
Kyle KishimotoLADMILATLPHISDPSFGATLLAD
Leo MorgensternLADCHCATLPHISTLSFGLADATL
Lucas KellyLADSTLATLPHIARISDPLADATL
Matt MartellLADSTLATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
Meg RowleyLADCHCATLARIPHICINATLLAD
Michael BaumannLADCINATLPHIARISFGATLLAD
Mike PodhorzerLADSTLATLPHIARISDPATLLAD
Paul SporerLADSTLATLPHISDPMILLADATL
Tess TaruskinLADCHCPHIATLSDPARILADPHI

National League Individual Awards

AuthorMVPCy YoungRoY
Alex ChamberlainMookie BettsSpencer StriderShota Imanaga
Ariel CohenRonald Acuña Jr.Spencer StriderJackson Merrill
Ben ClemensMookie BettsSpencer StriderJackson Chourio
Chris GilliganFreddie FreemanSpencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Dan SzymborskiRonald Acuña Jr.Spencer StriderJung Hoo Lee
David LaurilaBryce HarperSpencer StriderJackson Merrill
Davy AndrewsAustin RileySpencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Eric LongenhagenGabriel MorenoSpencer StriderRhett Lowder
Esteban RiveraFrancisco LindorTyler GlasnowPaul Skenes
Jake MailhotMookie BettsSpencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Jason MartinezFernando Tatis Jr.Blake SnellJung Hoo Lee
Jay JaffeRonald Acuña Jr.Spencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Jeff ZimmermanRonald Acuña Jr.Spencer StriderJared Jones
Jon BeckerTrea TurnerSpencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Justin MasonRonald Acuña Jr.Zac GallenYoshinobu Yamamoto
Kiri OlerMookie BettsLogan WebbJackson Merrill
Kyle KishimotoRonald Acuña Jr.Zack WheelerJackson Chourio
Leo MorgensternFernando Tatis Jr.Logan WebbYoshinobu Yamamoto
Lucas KellyMookie BettsSpencer StriderPaul Skenes
Matt MartellMookie BettsZack WheelerMasyn Winn
Meg RowleyMatt OlsonSpencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Michael BaumannCorbin CarrollSpencer StriderJackson Chourio
Mike PodhorzerRonald Acuña Jr.Spencer StriderYoshinobu Yamamoto
Paul SporerFernando Tatis Jr.Zack WheelerJackson Merrill
Tess TaruskinMookie BettsSpencer StriderMasyn Winn

Pennant and World Series Winners

AuthorAL Pennant WinnerNL Pennant WinnerWorld Series Winner
Alex ChamberlainBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
Ariel CohenHouston AstrosAtlanta BravesHouston Astros
Ben ClemensTampa Bay RaysAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Chris GilliganHouston AstrosLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
Dan SzymborskiBaltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
David LaurilaBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
Davy AndrewsBaltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesBaltimore Orioles
Eric LongenhagenTexas RangersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
Esteban RiveraNew York YankeesAtlanta BravesNew York Yankees
Jake MailhotBaltimore OriolesLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
Jason MartinezToronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Jay JaffeBaltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Jeff ZimmermanTampa Bay RaysAtlanta BravesTampa Bay Rays
Jon BeckerBaltimore OriolesLos Angeles DodgersBaltimore Orioles
Justin MasonBaltimore OriolesAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Kiri OlerBaltimore OriolesLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
Kyle KishimotoHouston AstrosAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Leo MorgensternNew York YankeesLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
Lucas KellyHouston AstrosLos Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers
Matt MartellTexas RangersPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
Meg RowleyTexas RangersAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Michael BaumannBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies
Mike PodhorzerHouston AstrosAtlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
Paul SporerBaltimore OriolesSan Diego PadresBaltimore Orioles
Tess TaruskinBaltimore OriolesPhiladelphia PhilliesBaltimore Orioles

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